Yesterday was a wild day with the Padres and Mets coming very close to a deal that would have sent Eric Hosmer, Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and cash to the Mets in exchange for Dom Smith – the details being reported were SO specific – However, the Mets reportedly ultimately chose to pass. Paying $30 million plus Smith for Paddack and Pagan was too crazy even for Steve Cohen. Must have been a blow to the Padres because apparently they went into the weekend thinking the deal would go through.
Based on the way things played out during the day, I can almost certainly conclude that the proposed deal – which would have been a complete head-scratcher for the Mets – would not be acceptable unless , a third team could get involved. We don’t know if that hypothetical third team was the Cubs or not – they’ve been mentioned/speculated frequently by reporters – but we do know that no deal materialized, and getting a team like the Cubs involved would have been so complicated (Whereas all they really want is a prospect in return for taking on part of Hosmer’s contract).
So the deal died at the one-yard line. Especially now, the Padres still don’t have an extra outfield stick (and the Mets still don’t have an extra arm).
Will talks with the Cubs resume now that the Mets are out? Impossible to say for sure – Jon Heyman reported that the Cubs were still involved yesterday morning – but the hour has become quite late. I think you could come up with an idea where the Cubs send a backup left-hitting outfield hitter to the Padres (Rafael Ortega?), who send back Hosmer, about half of his remaining contract dollars, and a top prospect. Would the Cubs value this top prospect (plus the loss of Ortega) at $30 million? (I could argue that!)
And do the Padres need a thug like Ortega’s bad enough to make that deal *now*? Remember, the reason they pushed so hard to move Hosmer or Wil Myers this offseason was so they could make another big commitment and stay under the luxury tax. Without all those moves used up (they were never reported to have been on Michael Conforto) I don’t know the Padres will feel like they NEED to move Hosmer now, as opposed to say the trade deadline. You’ll probably want to delay him until the trade deadline – after this season he’ll get full no-trade rights (as opposed to his current partial no-trade clause, which allegedly does not include the Cubs).
In the post-no-trade write-up at The Athletic, Dennis Lin shares this note from the LAST time Hosmer went untraded (which likely would have been at the Cubs’ deadline (along with outfield prospect Robert Hassell):
Towards the end of last season, a person in the Padres’ clubhouse made an observation: Given what happened at the close of trade, it was imperative that Hosmer be moved ahead of next season. There would never be the same level of trust between the most influential figure in the dressing room and the decision makers in the front office. “You should have ripped off the plaster,” said this person. After a disastrous second half, a fresh start seemed necessary for everyone.
Now that Opening Day is upon us, the Padres could be headed for more of the same.
The bell is now even harder to ring. So maybe the Padres *DO* have to make that deal now. Perhaps the Cubs’ leverage will never be higher…
Anyway, it must be fun being Hosmer today, knowing how badly your team wants you off, by the way.
Coming back to a more general point, however, is it too late for meaningful trades? Well, in a normal offseason, trades in the final week of spring training are EXCEPTIONALLY rare, although they did happen (Padres GM AJ Preller famously made a huge opening day trade for Craig Kimbrel a few years ago). This isn’t a normal off-season, of course, and there are still some guys out there that we highly expected to be traded ahead of the start of the season:
If a team is on the verge of a deal for manaea, it’s not the Mets.
— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) April 3, 2022
Will we now see a last minute push for some deals to close? Like manaea? And/or will we see more edge-of-the-roster moves than usual since teams didn’t have nearly as much time to sort through the fringes of their rosters in spring training?
I could see a world trading Manaea over the next few days and there are a number of other edge moves being made so that they can be in place for opening day rostering. Maybe finished by Tuesday evening or something? I’m just thinking out loud because then the guys would have to travel on Wednesday to play opening day on Thursday.
Overall, I’m not bracing for a flurry of moves or a resumption of the Hosmer Cubs rumors. Maybe we’ll see manaea traded soon, and some of those edge deals (I wonder about Ortega in general, given the Cubs’ apparent commitment to Jason Heyward in midfield versus right-handers, which is Ortega’s core value).
UPDATE: Just as I was posting… what the heck… are the Padres acquiring Manea? That would put the Padres over the luxury tax, depending on the rate of return. But also, why swap the PADRES for another arm? This is kind of crazy, especially considering what I just wrote. Stay tuned.