What will happen if Putin turns off the taps? The agreement with Algeria allows Italy to take a small step towards independence from Moscow gas. But that’s not enough. That is why the Draghi government is working on a Plan B. This envisages consumption rationing and the search for other suppliers to replace Russia. Decisions that will have a major impact on the lives of citizens. But today, at least imagine waiting for the worstcase scenario: that of a West giving up Russian gas and oil to end the war. Or that of a tsar who decides to turn off the taps in May or June.
Worst case scenario
It could be in retaliation for Western sanctions. Or why Russia’s situation on the financial markets could overturn: a warning that Moscow received with the declared insolvency of the Russian Railways. For this reason, yesterday, immediately after the signing of the Treaty of Algiers in the Palazzo Chigi, the Undersecretary of the Prime Minister Roberto Garofoli, the Minister of Economy Daniele Franco, the Undersecretary in charge of the Secret Services Franco Gabrielli and the experts of the Ministry of Transition met Ecologica led by Roberto cingolani. With them, Repubblica says today, were also the CEO of Terna Stefano Donnarumma, the CEO of Snam Marco Alverà and his successor Stefano Venier.
The starting numbers are known. Italy needs between 75 and 80 billion cubic meters of gas. Around 29 of them come from Russia. By 2024, Algeria will increase the share of gas it will sell to Italy by 9 billion. Libya and Azerbaijan bring two more each. Another six are to arrive by ship as a result of the agreements with Qatar, Egypt and the USA. But we’re still talking about late 2023 as the bestcase scenario. Therefore, the executive also thinks about the hypothesis of making other interventions. That’s increasing national production, which could add another two billion, and boosting coalfired power plants. But since all this is not enough and we definitely have to wait, here comes the idea of rationing.
radiators and air conditioners
The amendment presented by the 5Star Movement and reformulated by the government provided a foretaste, which already stipulates that “the weighted average temperature” in the individual rooms of public buildings must not exceed “19 degrees Celsius + 2 degrees tolerance”. Winter. And that it must not be “less than 27 degrees Celsius + 2 degrees tolerance” in summer. The new rules exclude hospitals, clinics and nursing homes. But the government’s plan B for gas rationing calls for stronger measures. One of them is the interruption of the lighting of buildings, monuments and public spaces, foreseen in Cingolani’s emergency plan. But on the table, Tommaso Ciraco explains today, there is another scenario.
That is, the one that envisages the transformation of the industrial activity of some supply chains. Aiming to keep the level of production unchanged by rationalizing the operation of the factories. The steel and ceramics sectors are particularly affected. The supply chains that produce in a continuous cycle can concentrate production at certain times of the year to achieve savings from lower energy consumption. This is to start. “But if we implement the embargo on Russian gas tomorrow, we can expect more rationing,” warns Davide Tabarelli, economics professor and president of Nomisma Energia, in an interview with La Stampa. “Factories, schools and public administrations should not step on the gas with this, he adds.
Schools without heating?
For Tabarelli, “the best you can hope for at a lower temperature is to save a billion cubic meters. 29 billion cubic meters of Russian gas must be replaced. That’s why we have to let the factories work less, use more coal, if the mayors of the cities where the power plants are located let us do it. So try to use all petroleum products instead of gas and wood in rural areas, but environmental restrictions on particulate matter must be removed immediately. We end up with 1520 billion. Another possibility is the “use of liquid gas, but here too it takes time for the regasification plants. All that remains is rationing».
Meanwhile, there is good news for families. In an interview with Il Messaggero today, the Undersecretary of State for the Economy, Federico Freni, says the government is preparing a $5 billion decree to implement measures such as the extension of the excise tax cut, the reduction in VAT on gas and the ” abolition of the Network charges for the weakest categories and promotion of energyintensive industries. «We are working on the text that will be presented after the approval of the economic and financial document. The government will use all the necessary resources, emphasizes Freni. Also because the Def provides for a scenario with the gas embargo from Moscow: Then the prices would rise to 200 euros per megawatt hour. Resulting in blowing up inflation and pushing us back into recession.
