Beirut, Lebanon – A delegation of Islamic and Arab nations is on a tour of the five permanent member states of the United Nations Security Council.
Its stated goal is to bring about a ceasefire in the war on Gaza, bring more humanitarian aid to the people there and call on the five council members to support the Palestinians in achieving an independent state.
However, experts disagree about the effectiveness and format of this trip.
“The impression of activity”?
The delegation, formed at a summit of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Riyadh, includes representatives from Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Nigeria, the Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the secretary general the Arab League OIC. She rejects Israel’s claim that its attack on Gaza is in self-defense.
On October 7, Hamas attacks in southern Israel killed around 1,200 people. About 240 people were captured. Since then, Israel has killed more than 14,500 Palestinians. At least 6,000 of them were children.
The delegation has a busy schedule and began its trip in China, meeting Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, in Beijing on Monday.
At first, China surprised analysts who speculated about what the delegation was trying to signal to Western powers. Some were less concerned and questioned the delegation’s true agenda.
“It is a well-known strategy in diplomacy: if you don’t want to do anything, try to involve as many actors as possible,” Gerard Araud, a former French ambassador to Israel, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “It takes time, it gives the impression of activity and it is useless.”
Shortly after the delegation began its visit, rumors of a humanitarian pause began to spread, and early Wednesday it was implemented as announced. The deal was an important topic of discussion for the delegation and they pushed for a more permanent cessation of hostilities.
The deal calls for Hamas to release about 50 women and children, while Israeli prisons hold three times as many Palestinian women and children.
The announced duration of the break is four days, during which the prisoners will be released. Israel also said it would stop fighting for another day for each “additional” group of 10 prisoners that Hamas releases.
The meeting in China was followed by a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Tuesday and later in London with British Foreign Minister David Cameron. A meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron took place on Wednesday.
First stop: China
By starting their journey in China, the Islamic and Arab states may be trying to rally global support to showcase to the nations that have previously supported Israel.
During the meeting, Wang said that choosing China as the first stop is a sign that the countries in the delegation trust China and value the mutual understanding between them.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) shakes hands with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry in Beijing on November 20, 2023 [Pedro Pardo/AFP]
Robert Mogielnicki, an expert on China’s relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa at Georgetown University, does not consider the efforts of Saudi Arabia and other Arab states to be performative like Araud.
“The Arab states do not have enormous direct influence. “Indirect influence through shaping the global narrative … and influencing the public stance of key global players appears to be an important dimension of their efforts,” he said.
China appeared to welcome the diplomacy, with Wang telling the delegation: “China has always … strongly supported the just cause of the Palestinian people to restore their legitimate national rights and interests,” according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
“China has an interest in regional order and preventing economic turmoil,” Arang Keshavarzian, associate professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies at New York University, told Al Jazeera.
“I can only assume that these leaders are genuinely trying to engage China more to help end the war, but the reality is that only the U.S. has the necessary influence over Israel.”
“Message to the USA”
In August, China brokered a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia that restored their diplomatic ties and, analysts said, was a sign that the Middle East was turning away from the United States as a key ally.
“Visiting China as a first destination is a message to the United States,” Randa Slim, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are telling the US: “You are no longer the sole power in the region,” she said.
Beijing has also recently strengthened its ties with non-Western multilateral groups such as BRICS, of which it is a member along with four other major emerging economies, and built stronger ties with the Global South in what analysts say are efforts to build a more multipolar world order.
According to a report from the US Institute of Peace, the Saudi Arabia-Iran deal was a “diplomatic victory for China as it increasingly seeks to present an alternative vision to the US-led world order.”
Abraham Accords or bankruptcy?
Arab leaders have complained in recent years about the U.S. withdrawal from the region. Their policies have largely focused on following former President Donald Trump’s strategy of advancing the Abraham Accords, normalization agreements between Israel and Arab countries.
Arab leaders – particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia – recently warned US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that this strategy had contributed to instability in the region.
Before October 7, it was widely reported that Saudi Arabia and Israel were also on track to normalize their relations. The deal would have been a major coup for Israel, which analysts say has sought to avoid cooperation with the Palestinians by striking deals with regional powers instead.
Popular mobilization in support of Palestinians over the past six weeks, particularly in the Middle East, has “upended” the “regional dynamics underlying normalization processes,” Mogielnicki said.
However, he added: “It is unlikely that the underlying strategic calculations that have supported previous normalization efforts will completely disappear.”
The public perception of the US as a loyal ally of Israel may not change – despite Blinken and other US officials highlighting measures such as restoring aid to Palestinians that the Trump administration had cut.
Even if the Arab states have no illusions about where the USA stands, the visit to China does not yet indicate a complete loss of trust.
“This is part of an effort to mobilize global support … and increase pressure on the Israeli government,” Mogielnicki said.
No matter how frustrated they are with the United States’ unwavering support of Israel, Arab leaders know that the power to stop the carnage lies with the United States.
“If you want to achieve the goal of a ceasefire, you have to talk to the Americans,” Slim said. “You are the only party [who decides].”