The Ukrainian counter-offensive has begun and Russia is putting up fierce resistance. However, Kiev reports initial successes and shows the world press some reconquered villages. Military specialists accompany the combats. Your conclusion – different.
Almost all that remains of many houses are skeletons. The bodies of Russian soldiers still lie in some ruins as the Ukrainian army guides the world’s press through small villages in the south and east of the country. The settlements were occupied by the Russians for almost a year and a half – for a couple of days they are again under the control of the Ukrainian army.
And Ukrainians want to show it. “This counter-offensive is necessary, although we all know that the price is the lives of our comrades,” a soldier with the pseudonym Winnie told AFP news agency.
A Ukrainian soldier walks through a cultural center in the recently recaptured village of Blahodatne, in the Donetsk region.
Observers call counter-offensive crucial
In his New Year’s speech, Volodymyr Zelenskyi declared 2023 the “Year of Victory”. Six months later, however, Ukrainian troops are slowly advancing. Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe and a proven optimist, believes, however, that Ukraine may even recapture the Crimean Peninsula this summer. If only the West provided the necessary weapons.
Many observers are much more skeptical. However, many agree that the recent counter-offensive by Ukrainian troops could have a decisive impact on the course of the war.
Shaded: territories occupied by Russia
Endurance and fierce fighting expected
According to official Ukrainian information, about 100 square kilometers in the south and east of the country have already been recaptured. Only a small fraction of the territory occupied by Russia. Western military experts say it is too early to assess the success of the counter-offensive. You don’t have to be disappointed with the current pace, said General Erhard Bühler in the MDR podcast “What to do, Herr General”. The counter-offensive is at a very early stage and the Ukrainians will face continued resistance from Russian forces.
This is also confirmed by Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maljar. “The enemy does not simply give up its positions,” Maljar stressed at a press conference in Kiev. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley also expects a fierce fight. The operation is likely to take a long time, “and at high cost”.
A lot of preparation, small successes
Russian troops managed to prepare for the attack on Ukraine for months. Nico Lange of the Munich Security Conference also criticized the West’s long hesitation in delivering main battle tanks and armored vehicles. Russian soldiers seized the time and built complex defense lines, laid narrow minefields and dug out defensive positions.
In the face of these obstacles, the Ukrainian advance was successful, says Oleksiy Hetman, a major in the Ukrainian reserve. “Even advancing a few hundred meters is a success.” Once the defenses are breached, things will go faster, the Hetman said. In terms of time, however, that moment is still a long way off, according to many observers.
“Such an attack against a prepared defense is not risk-free,” says former general Erhard Bühler. Russian troops showed that they could successfully defend, break off attacks and then counterattack. Ukrainian soldier Winnie confirmed this to AFP journalists: “It took two days to clear the area because they had so many shelters and passages. It was very difficult for our boys to drive the Russians out of here.”
conflicting parts as source
Information on the course of the war, bombings and casualties provided by official bodies of the Russian and Ukrainian warring parties cannot be directly verified by an independent body in the current situation.
Ukraine: “We must assume air sovereignty”
A challenge for Ukrainians is the use of combat helicopters, combat aircraft and drones on the Russian side. Its use probably also led to the first documented attacks on Western main battle tanks. Russian propaganda media immediately used the footage to demonstrate a painful loss on the Ukrainian side. However, it is now known that the Ukrainians managed to recover at least part of the damaged equipment from the battlefield.
“We have to assume air sovereignty,” says Oleksij Hetman of the Ukrainian reserve. “If the troops are protected from the air and the enemy can’t do anything, that gives us additional options.” For this, it needs the modern combat aircraft that Ukraine has required for a long time. Because by regularly bombing cities far from the battlefront, Russia is tying down the Ukrainian air defense system. The systems cannot therefore be used to protect ground troops at the front. “Unfortunately, terror against the civilian population is paying off for Russia. That is the main problem at this stage”, says Nico Lange.
What is the current situation at the front?
However, little is known about the real situation at the front. Observers assume that news will reach the public a few days late. So it’s too early for an analysis, many believe. “They are maintaining radio silence about where they are and how things are going compared to previous operations. They are trying to maintain operational security as much as possible,” says US military expert Michael Kofman on his podcast War on the Rocks.
Current attacks on various sections of the front can also be a disappointment, says Oleksiy Melnyk. “The biggest mystery for the Russians at the moment is where the main attack should take place.” Meanwhile, soldiers and the population are sworn to secrecy. “Plans love silence” is the name of a Ukrainian government video that shows soldiers wearing masks and armor putting their fingers to their lips in a gesture of silence. It almost looks like a movie trailer for war.
The reality, however, is less cinematic. The cost of war is most visible in the country’s hospitals, where young men are being treated for burns, severed limbs and shrapnel wounds. “We don’t have enough artillery. The front is too long. Everywhere we try to attack, they are waiting for us with their artillery,” military doctor Maxim complained to Swiss television.