Various weather forecasters have recently published their forecasts for the coming months, announcing a difficult winter fueled by several snowstorms; Meteorologist Gilles Brien gives us his opinion.
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In an interview with TVA Nouvelles, the meteorologist relativizes these statements from the outset by recalling the great uncertainty of these forecasts.
“We agree, a three-month forecast … It’s sometimes difficult to forecast over three days, so over three months it’s quite complicated. These are not forecasts showing you the weather on your porch. The long-term forecast only tells you whether temperatures will deviate from normal, yes or no? And will the rainfall levels be normal or not,” explains Mr. Brien.
Climate change is also making these forecasts even more uncertain.
“Temperatures have risen sharply in Quebec over the past thirty years. We always have warmer winters: the month of December is getting warmer and warmer. So when I tell you that we’re going to deviate from the values to have colder temperatures…well, it’s always in relation to what? ‘ remarks Mr Brien.
One thing is for sure, though: it’s going to be cold.
“Certainly what we do know is that you have cold air reaching Quebec. Ontario, on the Canadian prairies, has a well-established polar vortex, so the cold is coming to Quebec. We were spared for a few weeks, but we will feel it in the next few days,” assures Mr. Brien.
The prospect of a white Christmas is also one to consider, as the month of December should see temperatures low enough to ensure freezing of the ground and accumulation of snow.
“It’s going to be pretty turbulent for the month of December. Next week we will be below freezing for at least two to three weeks. With this we promote colder air and a frozen ground with the ability to hold back the snow,” explains the meteorologist.
Although some regions’ claims to a white Christmas are more certain than others, the coming cold winds may throw the metropolis into snow in December.
“The regions east of Quebec, that’s pretty safe. North of Lac Saint-Jean it’s guaranteed…it’s a 90% chance a year. However, Montreal is traditionally 75% lucky to have a white Christmas. More and more it’s more green or brown, but this year with the cold air coming in the next few days [ça s’annonce bien]concludes Mr. Brien.
However, the next few days will be characterized by a rainy season.