A reservist camp in Gaza. The soldiers, informed by the secret service, stand on guard and wait for the Hamas intruders to emerge from a tunnel. There is a shootout, the ambush is foiled – according to the official version – and the underground passage is destroyed.
The clash is one of many micro-battles that flare up in repeated episodes in the strip. Hamas is weakened and has suffered setbacks, especially in the north, but it is continuing its strategy of attrition. The only possible thing if you rely on the time factor. Small groups consisting of 3-4 militiamen sneak through alleys and houses to surprise enemy troops. They get close enough to fire with double-loading grenade launchers, they are “homemade”, modified versions of the famous “Soviet” or Chinese RPGs, the typical weapons of guerrillas around the world. Sometimes they manage to hit the mark by shooting at the back of the armored vehicles.
Spokesman Abu Ubayda, who is presumed dead but is still present online, claimed responsibility for destroying or damaging dozens of armored vehicles. Announcements steeped in propaganda that nevertheless describe the phase of the invasion that cost the Israelis the deaths of around 100 soldiers. A heavy toll, but less than the General Staff's fears. At least that's what they tell the media that highlights the successes.
The army is pushing into Jabaliya and Shasaiye in the northern sector – “We are close to breaking point,” says the defense – and towards the fortress of Khan Younis in the south. The assessment after two months of operation cannot be final, which is why the forecast of an extension has been leaked at least until January. Unless diplomacy succeeds in enforcing a ceasefire to put an end to a gigantic humanitarian catastrophe with tens of thousands of civilian casualties.
Jerusalem estimates it killed 6,000 to 7,000 militiamen, including a number of commanders. According to an empirical calculation based only on the press releases published, almost 90 managers would be eliminated. Uncertainties remain: the Palestinians, of course, only confirm lower figures; it is difficult to determine the death of an official if the body is not recovered. In many cases, targets were neutralized by air strikes or artillery fire, elements were buried under piles of rubble or trapped in tunnels. It's unlikely that people's lives will be risked to investigate.
The picture that emerges is, as usual, mixed and “mixed.”1) The battalions of Hamas and other factions operating in the north have been reduced in size, and some important cadres have “fallen.” “Signs of fatigue” were noted. However, the “urban” resistance with hit-and-runs continues. 2) The offensive forced the leaders to hide in tunnels, especially in the south. The Israelis hope to track down the factions' leaders – Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, the closest associates – and perhaps even free some of the 137 hostages. Always risky missions, as confirmed by the failed blitz attack a few days ago that attempted to snatch a prisoner from the hands of prison guards.
The Israelis hope to track down the factions' leaders – Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, the closest associates – and perhaps even free some of the 137 hostages. Always risky missions, as confirmed by the failed blitz attack a few days ago that attempted to snatch a prisoner from the hands of prison guards.
The second dimension of the conflict is that of intelligence. Leaks – we don't know exactly how – have brought the hunt for Hamas' leadership abroad, high-ranking officials based in Qatar, Turkey and Lebanon, back to the fore. The Shin Bet chief spoke of “a new Munich,” referring to the attacks on terrorists involved in the 1972 Olympic massacre. Can they do it again? In theory yes and also in practice, provided the hurdles are overcome.
As soon as the news spread, the Turks issued strong warnings and will certainly have increased their protection. And not today, as numerous studies on possible Israeli moles show. The Qataris had demanded guarantees of “immunity” for their guests: since they are the only real channel for negotiations, they have a good reason for being listened to. Furthermore, Hamas' history has shown that the assassinations of prominent figures, including founder Ahmed Yassin, did not harm the movement.
However, we are in a logic of war. Some measures are counterproductive at the diplomatic level, but serve an internal purpose and respond to the October 7 massacre.