Iran and Pakistan exchanged missile strikes last week, reportedly as part of both countries' efforts to quell violence by ethnic separatist groups. The attacks came against the backdrop of an escalating conflict in the Middle East, meaning any further violence could risk the spread of these fighting.
To be clear, there is no specific, concrete connection between the Iran-Pakistan conflict and the broader conflicts in the Middle East, which include Israel's war in Gaza and a standoff between the US and Yemeni rebels in the Red Sea. And both Iran and Pakistan promised de-escalation on Friday. However, given the ongoing instability and gradual escalation of conflicts involving Iranian proxy groups, this week's attacks are difficult to ignore.
This is largely because Iran plays at least some role in all the conflicts currently taking place in the Middle East. Iran has ties to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, both groups fighting against Israel. The country has also offered support to the Houthis in Yemen in the past, as the rebels are currently disrupting shipping and dueling with the US and its Western allies in the Red Sea. And Iran supported smaller militia groups based in Iraq and Syria that are currently attacking U.S. anti-ISIS coalition positions in those countries.
Ultimately, this week's exchange between Iran and Pakistan has more to do with the domestic politics of both countries than with Israel's war in Gaza. It is the continuation of a long-running battle against an ethnic insurgency that has plagued them both for decades. And Iran's commitment – particularly its decision to attack Pakistani territory and targets in Iraq and Syria earlier this week – illustrates both its fighting capabilities and its concerns about recent attacks on its own people.
What exactly happened between Pakistan and Iran?
Pakistan carried out what it called “highly coordinated and targeted precision military strikes” against Baloch separatists in Saravan, a city in southeastern Iran about 70 miles from the Iran-Pakistan border. Thursday's attacks appeared to be in retaliation for a surprise Iranian attack on Tuesday in Pakistani territory against the anti-Iranian Baloch militant group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice).
Pakistan and Iran share a border that runs through the traditional homeland of the Baloch ethnic minority, a region called Balochistan. All three groups targeted in this week's attacks – Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) in Iran – are known to be carrying out violent campaigns against both governments' efforts Securing Baloch autonomy and improving the rights and living conditions of the Baloch minority. But there are some important differences between the three groups, as Riccardo Valle, research director at Khorasan Diary, told Vox.
“BLA and BLF are part of the broader Baloch nationalist insurgency, while Jaish ul Adl is a jihadist organization whose territorial reach is limited in terms of attacks on Iran,” he said, using an alternative spelling for Jaish al-Adl. This group is not only nationalist, but also Sunni – a threat to Iran's Shiite Muslim revolutionary government. While the BLA and BLF only seek secession from Pakistan and the establishment of an independent Balochistan, “Jaish ul Adl is a Sunni jihadist militant group with a territorial focus whose goal is not only the independence of Balochistan but also the overthrow of the Iranian government. “
Every country has been trying to get a handle on Baloch separatism for decades, but this week's blow-by-blow attacks are an escalation of previous tactics that have occasionally seen cross-border operations – but never anything on this scale.
Who are the Baloch and why are Iran and Pakistan targeting them?
This is not the first time that Iran and Pakistan – which normally have fairly friendly relations – have come into conflict over Baloch separatist groups. But it is the most significant and violent clash between Iran and Pakistan in their efforts to contain these groups.
The Baloch are a Sunni Muslim ethnic minority living in a region called Balochistan, which includes parts of Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is sparsely populated, largely dry and, due to the comparatively little development there, a fairly poor region. And both Pakistan and Iran have heavily repressed their Baloch populations, fueling protests and separatist movements over the decades.
Baloch society is organized along tribal lines, and power struggles within the Baloch population have contributed to some extent to the group's lack of political power, as has their subordination to various empires over the centuries. Baloch separatist movements have been part of the region's political fabric for decades and exist in both Pakistan and Iran, where about 20 percent of the Baloch population lives (about 70 percent live in Pakistani territory). The increasingly porous and poorly policed border between the two countries has meant that drug trafficking and various insurgent groups have had a chance to flourish, with Valle particularly highlighting the collaboration between Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which seeks to overthrow the Pakistani government and This has resulted in several deadly attacks and Baloch militants carrying out there.
Jaish al-Adl, the anti-Iranian Baloch group that has targeted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Pakistan, is believed to have emerged from a previous Baloch group, Jundullah, which carried out violent attacks on the Iranian government, including an assassination attempt on the former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2003.
Iran claims to have killed nine members of the group through drone and missile strikes in Pakistan near the Iranian border, where “the group [had] “They sought refuge,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Jaish al-Adl operated over the years from the southeastern province of Sistan-Balochistan and Pakistan's border areas to secure better rights and living conditions for the Baloch people of Iran and ultimately overthrow the Iranian government. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for an attack on a police station in the Iranian city of Rask last month that killed 11 people.
In return, Pakistan targeted the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front, two groups that attack targets inside Pakistan, as part of their demands for a separate Baloch state and in retaliation for what they see as state exploitation of their territory's mineral wealth and wealth Natural gas. Both the BLA and BLF have attacked Chinese targets in Pakistan and Balochistan, as China has invested heavily in projects spanning Balochistan province and including mining interests as well as a port and an international airport.
What political purposes do the military strikes really serve?
While concern about the regional impact of the attacks is understandable, it may be more about conditions in Pakistan and Iran than about regional tensions. Iran and Pakistan struggle with internal instability; Both countries face major economic challenges as well as political crises of legitimacy in their respective governments.
In Pakistan, where upcoming national elections have sparked division and unrest, Iran's attacks have “unified an otherwise politically polarized country in anger,” says Madiha Afzal, a fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution who studies Pakistani politics and extremism South Asia investigated, said Vox. And given that Pakistan's foreign ministry “also provided a starting point for de-escalation” – crucial given Pakistan's many internal crises – “it appears to have satisfied Pakistan's political class and public,” Afzal said.
Although Pakistan recalled its ambassador to Tehran and told Iran's representative in Pakistan not to return, both sides have since signaled a desire to avoid further escalation. Within Pakistan, such measures “would likely find broad support in a politically divided Pakistan if it succeeds in de-escalating,” Afzal said.
Tuesday's Iranian attack appears to have caught Pakistan by surprise and its motivation remains unclear. Given this, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about what this week's attacks mean or what might come next. However, there are some useful considerations as to why Iran would attack targets not only in Pakistan, but also in Iraq and Syria.
Iran's attacks on Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan, as well as recent attacks on targets in Syria allegedly allied with ISIS and on a so-called “Mossad spy headquarters” in the Iraqi Kurdish city of Erbil, are related to “the general threat perception Iran's presence in the region is increasing. And at the same time feel the need – due to pressure from within and without – to react,” Hamidreza Azizi, visiting researcher at SWP Berlin, told Al Jazeera. Iraqi and Kurdish authorities denied that the Erbil building had any ties to Iran, and it was not clear whether Iran's attacks in Syria had caused major damage to ISIS targets, the BBC said.
While Iran typically projects its power through its proxies, insurgent groups and Iran's opponents have dealt decisive blows to the country over the past month. The ISIS Khorasan Province (ISIS-K or ISKP) claimed responsibility for an attack on a ceremony commemorating the assassination of former Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Qasem Soleimani, which killed nearly 100 people in the Iranian city of Kerman. Israel's Mossad also killed another senior IRGC military adviser, Sayyed Razi Mousavi, near Damascus in December, likely adding to Iran's sense of domestic threat.
Essentially, this week's attacks could be interpreted as a message to its own people – particularly the government's hardline base – that the Islamic Republic will not allow itself to be bullied, even as it must be careful to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States and to avoid their allies.
Tuesday's missile attacks on Pakistan could also be an attempt to “force regional countries, including Pakistan, to reconsider their pre-existing alignment with the United States and to stop offering further assistance that could enable the United States to help Iran or its allies.” to counteract proxies in the region.” Asfandyar Mir, senior South Asia expert at the US Institute of Peace, wrote on Friday.
While there may be no direct connection between Israel's war in Gaza and Iran's attacks on targets in Iraq, Syria and Pakistan this week, it could be that Iran believes now is the time to take its own steps to signal military capabilities – rather than using proxy groups to do so. But in attacks on countries with which it has reasonably friendly relations, Iran has been able to demonstrate its firepower on a limited scale without causing significant escalation, although both Iraq and Pakistan have expressed anger at Iran's attacks brought.
Iran could retaliate against Pakistan's attacks, Mir wrote, but for now it is more likely that the attacks will be suspended. Further attacks would be very risky given Pakistan's superior military and Iran's already overstretched military and proxy forces. “A contest with Pakistan in which Pakistan regularly violates Iran’s sovereignty will undermine Iran’s ability to deter other adversaries,” Mir wrote, “including the United States and Israel.”
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