The year 2023 is slowly coming to an end, leaving behind twelve months marked by conflicts, natural disasters, but also more colorful events such as the coronation of Charles III. or the Barbenheimer madness that took the international stage by storm.
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“2023 was a year that continued the major upheavals of 2022 rather than a watershed year,” commented Justin Massie, professor of political science at UQAM and co-director of the Strategic Analysis Network, ready to play the game of forecasts for that next year with QMI Agency.
Here you can find out what the year 2024 should have in store for us at the international level.
1 – The Summer Olympics in Paris
The arrival of a leap year is inevitably synonymous with the Olympic Games, which will be moved to Paris from July 26, 2024.
While many are waiting impatiently for the competitions, after the 2020 Summer Games had a somewhat pared-down edition in 2020 and were postponed to a reduced spectator size in 2021, this 33rd edition promises to attract many spectators as amateurs will travel from all parts of the world to take part . Come by in person.
However, unlike the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, which sparked debate given the reluctance of some countries to stimulate Russia's economy, the Paris Games are unlikely to make as many waves, said the political science expert, even if only in swimming Competitions.
2 – Fear of American presidential elections
The presidential election in our southern neighbor scheduled for November 2024 is sure to grab headlines, while the legal proceedings launched against former President Donald Trump are still dividing American constitutional experts over whether or not he can run again as head of the Republican Party.
But one thing is feared: the country could face internal conflicts or even another coup attempt like in 2021 if the elections are “close and controversial,” the science professor did not rule out politics.
“The ongoing questioning of American democracy is problematic. And that is dramatic, much more than that [impacts] what the American government could have on international politics. It is the future of this democracy that is at stake,” stressed Justin Massie.
3 – No solution in sight in Ukraine
The prognosis for the war in Ukraine looks rather bleak. According to Justin Massie, there is virtually no hope of a resolution to the conflict in 2024 after a year of failed Ukrainian counteroffensives that lost more territory than they regained.
“For Russia to leave, we must convince it that prolonging the war will cost more than ending it,” he said.
However, Russian perception would currently tend to the opposite: in 2024, the country could very well have an American president sympathetic to its cause, who would stop providing its vital aid to Ukraine, and European countries would be unable to compensate for the loss .
“Ukraine is in a situation where it risks being qualitatively and quantitatively disadvantaged in 2024, much more so than in 2023.” […] “Nevertheless, Ukrainians will continue to want to defend the territory with strength and determination,” he added, ruling out a simple conquest of the territory.
4 – A new short-term compromise for Gaza?
The ongoing Gaza ceasefire in the conflict reignited by October attacks between Israel and Hamas could set the stage for some kind of “short-term compromise” in 2024, but the matter will be far from over, the co-director said of the Strategic Analysis Network.
“We can assume that in 2024 we will not find a miracle solution to a conflict that has lasted several generations, but on the other hand we could see the end of major Israeli operations and a solution is yet to be outlined,” he said.
Because, apart from the two parties seeking a diametrically opposite outcome, the five countries that control the United Nations Security Council and would have the power to impose a neutral administration in the territory while waiting for a solution are still not failing, Find a common solution ground either.
“We need a neutral administration […] that is, a group other than Hamas that would govern that area […] to ultimately strive for a free Palestinian state. But even that is not clear whether it is possible to get there,” he noted.
5 – Low chances of attending an artificial intelligence regulation summit
The explosion in artificial intelligence in 2023 suggests that further significant progress will be made in the coming year.
But while several experts in the field have already planted the flag by urging the planet to regulate the field to prevent excesses, Justin Massie said he was more “pessimistic” about a summit on artificial intelligence in 2024 is on the agenda.
“There are too many economic benefits of being a leader in artificial intelligence to avoid them […] We need cutting-edge, innovative companies that can make big money in a world increasingly focused on artificial intelligence,” he said.
In the past, some international collaborations have led to regulation, for example in the area of human cloning, “but when it comes to making a lot of money, collaboration is much more difficult,” he added.
6 – Such tense relations between India and Canada
Canada is unlikely to make any effort to improve its already poor relations with India in 2024, but this year has been hit hard by the alleged killing of a Sikh activist in Vancouver, including Justin Trudeau, who has blamed the Indian government pushed.
But given the Canadian federal election in 2025 or even before, in which the country's Indian Sikh communities – who seek independence for part of India – will play a large role, this would be “politically costly” for the party. to alienate her, Justin Massie guessed.
On the other hand, Canada has nothing else to offer India, which wants its public support for Indian unity, for example by publicly denouncing separatist groups.
“I don’t expect such a statement from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2024,” argued the expert.
7 – Supercharged elections in Taiwan
We have to watch the elections in Taiwan in January, which could upset the precarious balance between the United States and China if the nationalist pro-independence group comes to power.
Because China could become more hostile towards Taiwan, which it wants to formally swallow, in contrast to the USA, which is committed to maintaining the status quo, i.e. the autonomous existence of Taiwan, but without its formal independence from mainland China.
“These upcoming elections will be crucial to the dispute, and the most important thing that exists right now is the threat of direct conflict between the United States and China,” the political science professor said.
8 – Towards infinity and beyond
On the bright side, 2024 is expected to make history as the first woman and first man of color will ever take part in a lunar mission as part of NASA's 10-day Artemis II mission scheduled in November.
Astronauts Christina Koch (44) and Victor Glover (46), along with Reid Wiseman (47) and Jeremy Hansen (47), will lay one of the first stones for a long-term presence on the moon.
The mission is also intended to help solidify a possible mission to send astronauts to Mars.