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CAIRO – Egyptians go to elections on Sunday in which President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi is expected to win a third term.
It is the first presidential election since a constitutional referendum in 2019 that paved the way for Sisi to stay in office until 2030. It comes at a time when the most populous Arab country is facing a severe economic crisis and is struggling with the impact of the war next door in Gaza.
For Sisi, an authoritarian leader who came to power in a military coup in 2013, the vote, scheduled to take place in Egypt from Sunday to Tuesday, will serve primarily to create a veneer of legitimacy among the population as he continues his decades-long campaign Reign extended.
His face can be seen everywhere in Cairo, on giant billboards along the city's sprawling highways proclaiming, “We are all with you.”
But while prices for everyday goods are skyrocketing and the state is spending a lot of money on eye-catching megaprojects, the murmurs of dissatisfaction are becoming louder and louder here.
Here's what you should know about the election.
In addition to Sisi, three lesser-known candidates are on the ballot: Farid Zahran, leader of the left-leaning Egyptian Social Democratic Party; Abdel-Sanad Yamama, leader of the nationalist Wafd Party; and Hazem Omar, chairman of the Republican People's Party.
None of the challengers pose a threat to Sisi, analysts say.
All three parties were part of the pro-Sisi bloc in the last parliamentary elections. Omar, a tourism entrepreneur, was appointed to the Egyptian Senate by Sisi in 2020. Yamama praised Sisi in a television interview last month and last year called for a constitutional change to recognize Sisi's role in the 2013 anti-Muslim Brotherhood protests that preceded the coup.
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Zahran has criticized the government and advocated for ending media censorship. But he is considered a relatively moderate opposition figure who does not cross the authorities' red lines.
Opposition parties disagreed over whether to take part in an election widely seen as a farce, but Khaled Dawoud, an Egyptian journalist and Sisi critic who has supported Zahran's campaign, said: “He is working for the future, not just it.” for this particular election.”
Will the election be free and fair?
In the months before the election campaign, security forces arrested supporters and relatives of Ahmed Tantawy, seen as Sisi's only credible opponent. Tantawy has been a vocal critic of the government and has become popular among young Egyptians.
In September, research by Google and the University of Toronto's Citizen Lab revealed that Tantawy's phone was infected with the Predator spyware.
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To take part in the vote, each candidate had to receive the approval of either 20 members of parliament or at least 25,000 eligible voters in 15 governorates.
Sisi formally declared his intention to run again in early October, saying he was “once again answering the call of Egyptians.” The national electoral agency said he had garnered more than 1.1 million supporters.
The trial was marred by allegations of obstruction and intimidation. Human rights groups and witnesses reported that Tantawy's supporters were denied entry to notary offices to make their endorsements. “Paid thugs” also attacked suspected Tantawy supporters, according to Hossam Baghat, executive director of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, one of the few human rights groups still operating in the country.
The national electoral authority rejected the allegations.
“The boomerang effect was really that this made people even angrier and made the regime look weak because there was no chance that Tantawy would win [Sisi] or be allowed to replace him at the ballot box,” Baghat said.
On October 13th, Tantawy announced He ended his campaign after failing to garner the necessary support.
He and members of his campaign were indicted last month on allegations from human rights groups that were described as politically motivated. Tantawy is free pending trial, but dozens of his campaign aides remain in custody.
Tantawy's exit from the race, combined with the war in Gaza, made for a muted election campaign. The Egyptian media, almost entirely controlled by the government, continues to sing the praises of Sisi. Only a few posters promoting the other candidates can be seen in Cairo.
Egyptians living abroad voted for three days at the beginning of the month. From Sunday to Tuesday evening, Egyptians in the country can vote at one of almost 10,000 polling stations. External election observers from the African Union and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa will monitor the proceedings.
In the last two elections, Sisi's supporters offered cash, food and other incentives to encourage Egyptians to vote.
Both times Sisi won with 97 percent of the vote.
Egypt's economy is the focus of this election – and represents Sisi's biggest challenge.
The country of 105 million is drowning in foreign debt and struggling with a severe shortage of hard currency. Inflation is over 35 percent – and even higher for food – causing widespread economic problems. The International Monetary Fund this year postponed two reviews of a $3 billion lending program after Egyptian authorities failed to make necessary reforms.
Bloomberg Economics recently ranked Egypt as the second most likely country in the world to default on its debts Ukraine.
Sisi blames external shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine for the country's worsening economic problems. But analysts say the military's control over swathes of the economy, coupled with massive government spending on infrastructure projects – including a new $58 billion capital in the desert outside Cairo – is depleting state coffers and slowing growth.
Poverty is increasing. The middle class was hollowed out. Power outages have been part of everyday life in recent months. The price of the dollar on the black market continues to rise. In rare cases of public criticism, people are openly complaining on social media about the skyrocketing prices of staple foods.
Many Egyptians fear an impending currency devaluation, demanded by the IMF and other lenders, that is expected to take place early next year – once Sisi has consolidated his power.
How did the war in Gaza affect the election?
It was a helpful distraction for Sisi, analysts said.
The suffering of civilians in Gaza has touched a nerve in Egypt and captured the attention of political commentators and the public. While some right-wing Israeli politicians advocate pushing Gazans into northern Sinai, Egyptians fear becoming complicit in the displacement of Palestinians.
The war also brightened Sisi's image internationally. Egypt played a key role as Hamas' interlocutor in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian militant group over the exchange of hostages for prisoners and the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
“Sisi benefited enormously from this situation,” Dawoud said. “As in many other countries, when faced with an outside threat or a situation with an outside danger, people tend to rally around the leader, whoever he is.”
Rare government-called demonstrations drew thousands of people to the streets in late October to show solidarity with Palestinians. But when protests broke out organically and participants began criticizing the government, security forces quickly cracked down.
Some 67 million Egyptians are eligible to vote this cycle. Voter turnout in the 2014 and 2018 elections was 47 and 41 percent, respectively, according to official figures – lower than authorities had hoped. State media reported last week that eligible voters who do not cast a vote could be fined 500 pounds, about $16.
Voter turnout will likely depend on “how many resources are devoted to bribing or coercing people to participate,” said Timothy Kaldas, deputy director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.
After the polling stations close on Tuesday evening, the preliminary results are to be published on Wednesday. Candidates then have several days to file an appeal. Unless there is a runoff election, the final result will be announced on December 18th.
The winner's term of office is six years.