SEOUL, Nov 22 (Portal) – Officials and experts around the world are trying to figure out whether North Korea’s first spy satellite is operational after it was launched on Tuesday as it orbits the Earth. South Korea claims that Russian help was likely involved.
North Korea appears to have overcome the technical problems that caused two previous tests of its new Chollima-1 missile to crash into the sea.
What capabilities does North Korea’s spy satellites in orbit offer?
Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer and astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told Portal that U.S. Space Force data cataloged two new objects in an orbital plane consistent with the launch from North Korea at the time specified by Pyongyang.
“I conclude that the objects are the spy satellite and the rocket upper stage,” he said.
However, it remains unconfirmed whether its payload, the Malligyong-1 reconnaissance satellite, is operational and whether the North has received outside help.
It could take time to determine whether the satellite is in an operational orbit, sending signals and what its capabilities are, analysts said.
“To assess the success of this launch, it is critical not only to determine whether the projectile entered orbit, but also to ensure the ability to adapt and reconnaissance from that orbit,” said Hong Min, senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “This also includes proof of the ability to take images with optical cameras and transmit them accordingly to the satellite control center.”
How can the spy satellite be used?
North Korea has not shown images of the satellite, but photos released by state media from a visit this year by leader Kim Jong Un to a manufacturing facility showed small, solar-powered satellites most likely similar to the one launched Tuesday, said Vann Van Diepen, a former U.S. government weapons expert working with the Stimson Center in Washington.
“It is likely that it will be a relatively small optical satellite that will have relatively low resolution,” he told Portal. “But even a relatively low-resolution satellite is better than not having a satellite, as is currently the case.”
Such a satellite is unlikely to provide the North with detailed information about specific weapons systems in South Korea, for example, but it would still be useful for identifying things like large troop movements, Van Diepen added.
To launch a more powerful satellite, North Korea would most likely need to develop a larger rocket, which the country appears to be doing, he said.
After the first failed test, South Korea recovered some of the Chollima-1 debris – including, for the first time, parts of a satellite that was said to have little military value.
DOES RUSSIA HELP?
South Korea’s spy service said North Korea may have overcome technical hurdles with help from Russia, which publicly pledged in September to help Pyongyang build satellites.
However, many experts expressed doubts that Moscow could have provided groundbreaking assistance in the roughly two months since.
“It is far too early for the North Koreans to consider any assistance that Russia may have agreed to,” Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said in a post on the social media platform X. “Maybe “The Russians gave them some advice, but it’s normal for countries to start and learn.”
Chang Young-keun, a professor at Korea Aerospace University, said it would have been impossible for the North to rebuild a satellite with Russian technology or hardware support within that time.
“But Russia could have offered analysis of previous outages and telemetry data,” he said.
Replacing parts, improving software, system integration and test runs typically can’t be done quickly, but Russian assistance could still be valuable in key areas such as improving the satellite’s capabilities or fixing the combustion instability that plagued an earlier launch said Lee Choon-geun, a missile expert at South Korea’s Institute for Science and Technology Policy.
ARE THE RECENT SATELLITE TESTS IN NORTH KOREA RELATED TO MISSILE PROGRAMS?
The United States and its allies described North Korea’s recent satellite tests as clear violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions that ban the development of technology for North Korea’s ballistic missile programs.
UN resolutions adopted with Russia’s support also prohibit any scientific and technical cooperation with North Korea in the fields of nuclear science and technology, aerospace engineering, and advanced production techniques and methods.
The Chollima-1 appears to be a new design and most likely uses the twin-jet liquid-fueled engines developed for Pyongyang’s Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which have their roots in Soviet designs, analysts said.
However, although the launch vehicle (SLV) likely uses the same RD250-like engines as North Korea’s ICBMs, there are design differences between the two, Lewis said.
“North Korea is no longer shy about testing ICBMs, so no – this is really an SLV,” he said.
Reporting by Hyun Young Yi, Hyonhee Shin, Ju-min Park and Josh Smith; Written by Josh Smith and Angus MacSwan
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