French President Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen face a runoff election for the French presidency on April 24 after winning the first round on Sunday by 27.8% and 23.2% respectively.
Driving the news: Both candidates entered the campaign trail on Monday, with Macron visiting northern cities that had voted heavily for Le Pen. He was criticized for neglecting the campaign ahead of the first round and instead focusing on Ukraine while Le Pen toured the country, criticizing the high cost of living and rising in the polls.
The central theses
1. Macron performed slightly better than expected given Le Pen’s late rise in the polls, beating her by just over 2017.
- Macron won 66% to 34% in the 2017 runoff, but polls show a much closer race this time, with Macron leading 53% to 47% and Le Pen retaining the momentum, according to a Reuters aggregate.
2. Sunday’s results were a brutal blow for France’s traditional leading parties, the centre-right Republicans and the centre-left Socialists, who together garnered just 6.5% of the vote.
- Candidates who get less than 5% of the vote are not eligible for campaign reimbursement, and Valérie Pécresse — who once voted neck and neck with Macron after winning the Republican nomination — told reporters Monday that she was personally indebted was 5 million euros after receiving just 4.8%.
3. Far left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who finished third with 22% emerged as a potential kingmaker and the only viable candidate on the decimated French left.
- In his concession speech, he advised his supporters not to vote for Le Pen in the second ballot, but made a point of not mentioning Macron.
- Far-right candidate Éric Zemmour called on his supporters to support Le Pen, while Pécresse, Green candidate Yannick Jadot and socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo supported Macron.
What to look out for: At 73.7%, voter turnout was lower than 2017 but not as strong as some analysts had predicted.
- Nevertheless, abstentions in the second ballot are a danger for Macron. A Ifop survey The election, held after the results were announced on Sunday, showed that 44% of Mélenchon voters planned to sit out the second round.
What’s next: Macron and Le Pen will face each other in a prime-time televised debate on April 20, a critical moment before the second round of voting on April 24.
- Le Pen’s poor performance in the televised debate against Macron in 2017 helped him move further up the final leg of the race.
- This year’s debate has drawn criticism given Le Pen’s now more polished image and the fact that Macron refused to debate his rivals before the first round.