The top seeds have been determined.
This also applies to the team that picks first in next spring's draft.
But the complete playoff picture? There is still a lot to gain and the chaotic Week 18 is just around the corner.
In 17 weeks of football, the AFC has only qualified four teams for the playoffs, with three spots still to be decided. The Ravens secured first place. The Chiefs, who won their eighth straight AFC West title on Sunday, are there. Likewise the Dolphins and Browns.
But there is still no winner in the AFC East as the Bills (10-6) and Dolphins (11-5) will face off in Miami this week with the division title on the line.
The same goes for the AFC South, where the Jaguars, Colts and Texans all still have a chance.
And the Steelers still have a shot at a wild-card spot after their must-win win over the Seahawks on Sunday. The Broncos and Bengals, who still had hope on Sunday, were eliminated from playoff contention.
Five spots have been filled in the NFC, two have yet to be filled. The Packers, 8-8 after a big win over the Vikings on Sunday night, can secure one of those with a win in Week 18 against the Bears.
And thanks to a stunning loss on Sunday, the Eagles have opened the door for the Cowboys in the NFC East.
A permanent spot belongs to the Los Angeles Rams, who are now 9-7 after Sunday's 26-25 win over the Giants. Sean McVay has delivered some of his best performances in 2023, bringing a rebuilding team back to the postseason when many were still looking for four or five wins in August. LA has won six of its last seven.
Here's what we learned from Week 17 across the NFL:
1. Ravens and 49ers take the top seeds
The top two teams in each conference secured the No. 1 seed and the playoff bye that comes with it.
Start with the Ravens, undoubtedly the best team in the league last month: Baltimore beat Miami 56-19 in a game that was all but over after halftime. Six days after defeating the 49ers on the road, Lamar Jackson and Co. backed up that performance with a second straight blowout against a would-be Super Bowl contender.
In summary, over the last two weeks, the Ravens have outscored the 49ers and Dolphins – two teams that are a combined 23-9 on the year – by 51 points. Impressive stuff.
And with an outstanding five-touchdown game against Miami, Jackson has firmly established himself as the MVP front-runner with one game to go. Stats will never tell the whole story with Jackson, but this might come closest: Since becoming the Ravens' starter in 2019, Jackson is 59-22, including the playoffs. The guy just wins.
“The proof is in the pudding,” said Ravens fullback Odell Beckham, Jr. “Look at this team and look at how he leads them, the impact he has day in and day out, just little, little plays.” The piece collapses, suddenly he extends the piece. There’s just no one like him.”
So the next step for Jackson is to perform well in the postseason (so far in his career, Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs). This year will be his second time doing so as the starting quarterback for the No. 1 team in the AFC.
The last time Baltimore had a playoff bye was Jackson's first full season as a starter, 2019, and also the last time he won the league's MVP award. The Ravens drew and lost in the divisional round to the Titans.
“We remember ’19,” coach John Harbaugh said. “We won’t forget that.”
The 49ers, meanwhile, shook off last week's loss to the Ravens and rebounded with a 27-10 win over the Commanders, their seventh win in their last eight games. Philadelphia's surprising loss to Arizona and Detroit's controversial loss to Dallas on Saturday night secured the NFC's No. 1 seed over the 49ers (12-4).
San Francisco also made a little history on Sunday: With running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle, it is the first time in NFL history that a team has one running back and two wideouts and has a tight Complete every finish with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards.
2. Eagles open the door for Cowboys to win the NFC East
The playoffs are getting closer and the reigning NFC champions have a point.
In fact, they fall apart.
The concerns were already evident a month ago, even though Philly had 10 wins in 11 games to start the season. The Eagles had to recover from halftime deficits seemingly every week. And while they were still good enough to pull off a string of hard-fought victories, they weren't nearly as sharp as they were a year ago, weren't as complete or as discouraging as they steamrolled the NFC on their way to becoming the conference's top seed and a spot in the Super Bowl.
Everyone was wondering: When would all this catch up with her?
We have our answer: yes.
The offense isn't nearly as strong as it was a year ago and the defense is starting to expose itself.
With every week that passes, the pressure grows on coach Nick Sirianni and his staff to find a solution, and it's only getting worse.
And yet Sunday's 35-31 loss to Arizona was stunning for several reasons. The Cardinals, coached by former Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, entered the game with just three wins this year and were ranked No. 2 in the draft.
Philly led 21-6 at halftime.
But a catastrophic collapse – Arizona scored four touchdowns after halftime – handed the Eagles their fourth loss in five games. The change in defensive players, from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia, didn't pay off as much as Sirianni had hoped. Over the last six games, the Eagles defense has given up more than 31 points per game. Start blaming the run defense, which was trashed for 221 yards on Sunday, including 128 from James Connor.
Losses to the 49ers and Cowboys could be understood and even rationalized. But the Cardinals? With so much at stake?
“We need to go back to the drawing board and think about what we’re doing. “How can we fix things?” Sirianni said after the loss. “That will be in our heads. Worrying doesn’t fix anything.”
At this point, it's hard to say when — and if — Eagles coaches will ever find the answer.
Since Dallas (also 11-5) owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia (better conference record), the Cowboys can clinch the NFC East crown with a win over the Commanders next Sunday. That would mean the struggling Eagles, who were in the running for first place in the NFC a month ago, would begin the playoffs on the road. Both the Cowboys and Eagles have secured postseason spots.
3. Thanks, Panthers: The Bears secure first place
For the second year in a row, the Chicago Bears are entering the offseason with the top pick in the NFL Draft.
Don't bet on them taking action this time. However, in this league it's probably wise not to rule anything out.
The trade Ryan Poles made last winter paid off handsomely for Chicago; With the Panthers' 0:26 loss on Sunday in Jacksonville, Carolina (2:14) achieved the worst record in the league. And with that pick resting with the Bears, due to last spring's trade that resulted in the Panthers selecting Bryce Young first, Chicago has its choice of two tantalizing quarterback prospects at the top of this spring's draft: Caleb Williams of USC and UNC's Drake Maye.
That is, if Chicago actually decides to move on from Justin Fields, who has been playing better lately and even earned a “We want Justin!” Chants from fans at Soldier Field during Sunday's 37-17 win over the Falcons.
“Of course I heard (the chants),” Bears safety Jaquan Brisker said. “I want Justin. We want Justin.”
The Bears, meanwhile, have won three of four games after starting 3-8, which could potentially help coach Matt Eberflus, who plans to return for a third season in 2024. Chicago is currently 7-9 and was eliminated from the playoffs with Green Bay's win over Minnesota on Sunday night.
The Commanders, Patriots and Cardinals (all 4-12) are all in the running for the second pick in April's draft.
4. AFC East Championship Game coming to Miami
It was a terrible afternoon for the Dolphins, and not just because their 56-19 loss in Baltimore ended their chance at the AFC's top seed. The injuries are piling up, and they are coming at the worst possible time.
The Dolphins' loss, coupled with the Bills' 27-21 win over New England, sets up a Week 18 clash for the AFC East title next Sunday in Miami. While the Dolphins are 11-5 and the Bills are 10-6, Buffalo has the tiebreaker thanks to a 48-20 win in Week 4. A win for the Bills this week would mean a win for the season and give them the edge in the tiebreaker.
At this point, it's two teams going in different directions. The Bills, thought dead by most pundits in mid-November, are 5-1 since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, with their only loss coming in overtime to the Eagles.
The Dolphins, once 9-3, have lost two of their last four games, opening the door for the Bills to reclaim a division race they have been forced to lose since midseason. And it hurts them. Jaylen Waddle is dealing with a high ankle sprain and may not be able to play next week. Tyreek Hill is dealing with an ankle injury of his own. And now the Dolphins fear losing pass rusher Bradley Chubb for the season.
While the Dolphins have secured a spot in the playoffs, the Bills have not. They could finish in second place in the AFC or miss the playoffs altogether.
Still, according to the New York Times playoff simulator, they have a 91 percent chance of making the postseason. If the Bills lose to the Dolphins, their main hope will be a Steelers loss in Baltimore.
5. Colts and Texans face a winner in Week 18.
A year ago, the Colts and Texans met in Week 18 in Indianapolis, two struggling, losing franchises capping off a disastrously disappointing season.
They meet on Saturday and a place in the playoffs is at stake.
And with a little help from their friends in Tennessee, both teams still have a shot at a division title.
Two of the NFL's most notable turnaround seasons came in the AFC South, and both coaches deserve a spot in the Coach of the Year discussion (where Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski is a deserving front-runner). In Houston, DeMeco Ryans has breathed new life into a run-down franchise that was going nowhere before his arrival; In Indianapolis last year, Shane Steichen cleaned up the Colts' mess, largely without his top pick, quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Thanks to wins by the Jaguars, Colts and Texans on Sunday, all three are 9-7 in the division race and still alive. But with Jacksonville owning both tiebreakers, the Jags' division remains a rout. If they beat the Titans on Sunday, they will clinch their second straight AFC South title. The winner of the Colts-Texans on Saturday night would clinch a wild card spot.
But if the Jags lose, the 10-7 Colts-Texans winner would clinch the division title.
In addition to the AFC East, AFC South and NFC East, the only other division winner that has not yet been determined is the NFC South. Both the Bucs and Saints are 8-8 and the Bucs currently own the tiebreaker thanks to a slight edge in conference record. Tampa has the better matchup in Week 18, a game against inferior Carolina (2-14). The Saints face the Falcons, who have lost three of their last four and are 7-9.
(Photo by Isaiah Likely: Todd Olszewski / Getty Images)
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