What we learned in NFL Week 18: Bills complete turnaround, Jaguars complete collapse – The Athletic

The playoff field is set and Wild Card weekend is full of storylines.

Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit for the Lions' first home playoff game since 1993, while Jared Goff faces the Rams, the team that traded him three years ago. Two of the legendary NFL franchises meet in Dallas. And Tyreek Hill is returning to Kansas City.

NFL Wild Card Weekend

In Miami, the Bills won their fifth game in a row at the end of the regular season – and won their fourth division title in a row.

In New England, one of the most storied coaching careers in all of sports might have seen its final chapter. But in true Bill Belichick fashion, there were no added emotions, no farewell waves to the fans at Gillette Stadium. His uncertain future after 24 seasons at the helm of the Patriots remains one of the league's biggest questions heading into Black Monday.

In Tennessee, Derrick Henry probably played his last game with the Titans.

In Green Bay, Matt LeFleur improved to 10-0 against the Bears, helping the Packers to a playoff berth in Aaron Rodgers' first year. Chicago, meanwhile, enters the offseason with the No. 1 pick and a big question for Justin Fields.

In New Orleans, Saints coach Dennis Allen learned that Smith will tell you what he thinks if you score points late in a blowout win over Arthur Smith and the Falcons. Just before he gets fired.

For the Rams, Puka Nacua capped an outstanding first season with two NFL records: the most receptions (105) and yards (1,486) by a rookie receiver in NFL history.

Also notable is that all four AFC North teams (the Ravens, Browns, Steelers and Bengals) hit over .500 that season, the first time a division has done so since 1935. and for the 19th straight year, the NFC East did not have a repeat winner.

There are four coaching jobs open so far: with the Panthers, Raiders and Chargers via midseason layoffs and with the Falcons following Smith's firing. More will be available starting Monday.

Here's what we learned from the final week of the NFL regular season:

1. Bills rally for AFC East title; Dolphins head to Kansas City

The AFC East still runs through Buffalo. And eight weeks ago, not many could make the Bills even make the playoffs.

Buffalo pulled off an impressive late-season turnaround on Sunday night in Miami, defeating the Dolphins 21-14 to clinch its fourth straight title. The Bills were 6-6 heading into the midseason controversy after falling in overtime at Philadelphia in late November, but responded with five straight wins to close the regular season, including victories over the Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins.

The win secures the No. 2 seed in the AFC for the Bills, who host the Steelers next weekend.

Sunday night's win was the full Josh Allen experience – he was at his worst at times in the first half, throwing two interceptions, then at his best at times in the second half, making plays with his arms and legs and putting the Bills in a corner tremendous victory.

For Miami, that's 15 consecutive seasons without a division title. With the loss, the Dolphins – who were in the running for the No. 1 seed just a few weeks ago – drop to No. 6 and travel to Kansas City for their playoff opener on Saturday evening. It will be the first time Tyreek Hill will play at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium since joining him from the Chiefs following the 2021 season.

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 in Germany earlier this season.

2. The Cowboys secure second place, the Eagles' free fall continues

For the second time in three years under coach Mike McCarthy, the Cowboys are NFC East champions. Dallas' 38-10 win over Washington on Sunday secured the Cowboys second place in the NFC and set up a thrilling wild-card matchup with McCarthy's old team, the Packers, next weekend.

But let's be honest: The Eagles' collapse late in the season – Philly stumbled from 10-1 in early December to 11-6 by season's end – cleared the way for Dallas' division title.

And now the Eagles have some injury concerns that could impact their game next week in Tampa Bay. Both quarterback Jalen Hurts (finger) and wide receiver AJ Brown (knee) were injured in Philadelphia's loss to the Giants on Sunday, a game in which coach Nick Sirianni withdrew his starters midway through the season anyway. Hurts said the middle finger of his throwing hand “popped out” and he plans to train it day by day this week. Brown was seen standing and greeting his teammates as they entered the locker room after the game.

“I hope he's OK, but we'll see as the week goes on,” Sirianni said of Brown.

But even though Hurts and Brown were healthy, the Eagles dropped five of their last six games after owning the NFC's top seed as recently as late November. Philly seems like a completely different team right now. And not in a good way.

“I think that’s something we’ve been looking for,” Hurts said when asked about the Eagles’ identity. “We haven’t had the consistency we wanted as a team and that’s something we’ve been looking for.”

That was perhaps more meaningful.

“We spent the entire season trying to figure out exactly what our identity was as a team,” linebacker Zach Cunningham told Brooks Kubena of The Athletic. “So I don’t really know what to say about that.”

You still have a week to find it.

Elsewhere in the NFC, Jordan Love concluded his first regular season as Green Bay's starting quarterback in style, throwing two touchdowns in a 17-9 win over the Bears that clinched the Packers' playoff ticket.

And in Carolina, the Bucs won their third straight NFC South title. And this time they did it without Tom Brady.

Tampa Bay's season began with questions, starting with who would replace Brady at quarterback. Baker Mayfield? Kyle Trask? It took almost the entire training camp for Mayfield to finally get the nod. An unlikely redemption story followed: Mayfield, on his fourth team in three years, lifted the Bucs after a 4-7 start and brought them back to the playoffs.

A 9-0 win over the Panthers on Sunday – the Bucs' fifth in their last six games – sealed the decision. With both the Bucs and Saints finishing 9-8, Tampa Bay won the tiebreaker thanks to a better record against common opponents (the teams split in head-to-head games that year and had identical division records of 4-2).

3. The Jaguars' collapse paves the way for the Texans' surprise division title

When the calendar flipped from November to December, the Jaguars were 8-3, just a half-game behind the Ravens and Dolphins in the race for the AFC's top spot. They had a 96 percent chance of making the playoffs. A little over a month later they are out.

Stunning, really.

“I think today's game is our season in a nutshell,” coach Doug Pederson said after Sunday's 28-20 loss at Tennessee.

After five straight wins to close out the regular season last year and advance to the divisional round of the playoffs, Jacksonville entered the season as an up-and-coming team viewed by some as a dark Super Bowl contender. Through the first three months of the regular season, nothing suggested otherwise.

What followed was the league's most perplexing collapse of 2023: The Jaguars dropped five of their final six games and missed the postseason altogether. All the Jags had to do was beat a six-win Titans team on Sunday and they would have been AFC South champions again. It did not happen.

With 7:14 left, Trevor Lawrence was down 8 at the line of scrimmage for a game-winning four-and-goal from the Titans' 2-yard line. He stretched out his arm, hoping it would get the ball over the line, but he couldn't.

“If you make it, you better score, and I didn't make it,” Lawrence said later. “So it’s unfortunate.”

Then, on Jacksonville's final drive after picking off Calvin Ridley, Lawrence narrowly missed tight end Evan Engram on fourth-and-2.

That sealed it. The Jaguars finish 9-8 and will watch the playoffs from home. Lawrence's injuries over the last month certainly haven't helped – first an ankle, then his throwing shoulder, which he gutted on Sunday – but the problems extend even further. Jacksonville's only win in November came against the Panthers, by far the worst team in the league.

Don't take anything away from the Texans, who outscored the Colts 23-19 in a win-and-in scenario on Saturday night. Thanks to the Jags' loss a day later, they clinched their first division title since 2019. A franchise that has won all 11 games over the past three seasons won 10 in the DeMeco Ryans' first year.

And that made the Texans the first team in the NFL since the Colts in 2012 to advance to the postseason with a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback. Despite missing two starts, CJ Stroud totaled 4,108 passing yards, the third-most by a rookie quarterback in league history.

4. NFL Draft order set

Entering Week 18, the Bears already owned the top pick in this spring's draft through their trade with the Panthers last year. But the rest of the top 10 wasn't decided yet. It is now.

Thanks to the strength of the scheduling tiebreaker, the Commanders edged out the Patriots and Cardinals, all of whom finished 4-13, to secure second place. New England will take third place, its highest selection since 1994, and Arizona will take fourth place.

Here's the rest of the top 10:

5. Bill Belichick: “I still enjoy coaching.”

If this was indeed Bill Belichick's final game with the Patriots, his legendary 24-year career ended with an ugly loss to a team he hates – the Jets – and even more offensive ineptitude. Under a consistent blanket of snow, New England managed just 119 yards of total offense, its fewest in the Belichick era. The previous low point was reached in October 2001, three games into the Tom Brady era.

The Patriots' 4-13 record is the worst of Belichick's career, including his five seasons in Cleveland. It's also New England's worst finish since 1992.

Now comes the decision from owner Robert Kraft — or perhaps Belichick himself — about what happens next. Chad Graff of The Athletic recently reported that the two are expected to meet on Monday to discuss the path forward, “but at this point, a parting of ways is entirely possible – if not likely.”

Belichick was predictably reticent on the subject after Sunday's loss, admitting only that he planned to meet with Kraft now that the season is over, which he always does. However, the 71-year-old admitted that: “I still enjoy training.”

It would put an end to one of the NFL's storied successes, a two-decade, six-championship dynasty that slowly faded after Brady left after the 2019 season. The decline was sharp this year. The Patriots scored fewer points than any other team in football, and the needs that must be addressed this offseason — quarterback, receiver and offensive tackle, for example — are great no matter who is coaching them in 2024.

GO DEEPER

The Krafts must do what's best for the Patriots in a classic Bill Belichick maneuver

(Photo by Trevor Lawrence: Todd Justin Ford / Getty Images)

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