What will be the future movements on the war fronts? An answer is provided by an analysis by the American expert Michael Kofman, one of the most quoted in the international media, who is always cautious in his judgments, as well informed as he is.
The invaders launched the “Winter” offensive about a month ago, not a massive action, but a series of attacks along 5-6 axes in Donbass. Target Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other locations to reach Kupyansk. At Vuhledar, the 155th and 40th Brigades, their ranks filled with mobilized men, suffered enormous casualties attempting to advance across open ground filled with mines and subjected to anti-tank fire. It’s not clear, the researcher adds, whether officers learned their lesson. There was some “gain” in the Kreminna sector and around Bakhmut, where the militias are said to have approached the center of the city. Zelensky has ruled out abandoning the place, he has declared it a “fortress”, some experts think differently and maybe even some of his officers (indiscretions have been leaked).
So far – writes Kofman, director of Russian studies at the CNA in Washington – Moscow has not added troops held in reserve, but has used them to make up for losses or to wait for a breakthrough. “I am skeptical about a new shoulder in the spring – he adds – because it would require a second mobilization, of which there is no trace”. It is possible that the occupiers are waiting to see how current operations unfold, and the forecast, which indicated a “call-up” of 500,000 men, appears to be wrong. For now, the Russians are content with small conquests, while leaving men and equipment in the field. Ammunition spending could become critical in a few months, as can troops under attack: even more serious problems if Ukraine launches its offensive with new Western material at its disposal. As long as all promises are kept. Not only that: with the Russians, tanks and armored vehicles do not represent growth, but plug the holes.
There is also a shadow of mystery surrounding a series of bombings in the Mariupol sector involving Russian targets beyond the Himar’s range of action (80 kilometers), which has led to the hypothesis that longer-range systems would be delivered ‘clandestinely’ €œ. Stories always confused by the fog of war. The crisis goes through a period of friction in which one hopes to exhaust the other, in fact Zelenskyy’s army is not immune to risks and has to stock up on projectiles in large quantities. Kofman emphasizes that nothing is easy for the Ukrainians: attempts to advance could break on an enemy “front”, which, however, is robust and may be strengthened by the umpteenth mobilization.
The Analyst then returns to the Army chain of command. General Surovikin had decided on a defensive strategy, consolidating positions and withdrawing units to safer areas. Lots of trenches and bunkers, especially in the south. Then he was “demoted” and the line passed from General Gerasimov, who devoted all his strength to the Donbass with soldiers and mercenaries from Wagner. For Kofman, this election may not be rewarded with a real turning point. Kiev’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov intervened on these aspects: in an interview with Forbes, he stated that the occupiers would receive orders to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk by March 31, a goal he believes to be impossible to reach.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has launched a plan to effectively integrate the pro-Russian militias into the defense structure. All members receive pensions, benefits and treatment reserved for regular units. An attempt to standardize the contingent by providing appropriate equipment when they find the resources.