Too high expectations of counter-offensive?
Therefore, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is not limited to sweeping away Russian troops. Expectations in the West were also very high, says Lange: “According to the motto: go ‘boom’ and then they will cross the Russian lines with Western armored vehicles and main battle tanks and then the war will be over.”
Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel Serhiy Osachuk, who is based in Donbass, also warned against too high expectations. There is still a long way to go before the end of the war. Sarah Pagung shares this assessment: “We know from past research on international conflicts that conflicts that don’t end very quickly tend to last a long time.”
And if Ukraine fails?
The worst case scenario for Ukraine would certainly be for them not to gain any major territory. This would not necessarily mean a worsening of your current situation, but neither would it mean a significant improvement. “If that happens, you won’t just lose the illusions in Kiev.” Estimates Gerhard Mangott, professor of politics with a focus on Russia at the University of Innsbruck, in an interview with BR24.
In Mangott’s view, pressure would then also increase in Western capitals – “I’m taking over from Berlin, Washington and Paris” – to finally seek a negotiated solution, at least a ceasefire negotiation to freeze the conflict.
Sarah Pagung also sees a risk if Ukraine is not as successful as hoped: “It could have an impact on more military and financial support, which Ukraine depends on, of course.”
Nico Lange doesn’t see much likelihood of Ukraine failing completely. The important question for him, however, is how many reserves does Ukraine still have to be able to exploit and expand a breakthrough to liberate Russia’s actual occupied territory in the long term? “That’s an open question at this point.”
Russia’s Renewed Threat of “Nuclear War”
In the context of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, a renewed threat of a nuclear attack from Russia is causing unrest. Sergey Karaganov, one of Putin’s advisers, recently wrote in an essay: “We must climb the ladder of deterrence as quickly as possible. We have waited and negotiated enough. The price of hesitation will be much higher if we don’t act now.” Therefore, it is necessary to seriously consider nuclear war.
Politics professor Mangott considers the likelihood of a nuclear escalation low, but sees a residual risk: “In view of the catastrophic consequences of the use of nuclear weapons, it should not matter whether the Russian side is bluffing or not.”
Security expert Lange, on the other hand, finds these threats harmless: “We’ve been practicing dealing with these Russian nuclear threats for 15 months, so don’t get discouraged.”
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