If there’s one lesson to be learned from television lately, it’s that it’s almost impossible to predict the path it’s going to take. It is most likely the medium that is changing and adapting the fastest. Guessing where the shots will go is a very complex task. It would be too risky even to bet on which chain will lead in Spain in 2023. At the moment 2022 concludes with Antena 3 at the top, so a priori they are the least to worry about. Telecinco faces a year of changes, with the departure of Paolo Vasile and the need to take action to win back the audience that has been lost. And La 1, who have caught up on their poor year with World Cup crowds in the final spurt, are also in the process of transforming themselves to regain visibility and relevance.
Nevertheless, there are certain indicators and trends that can provide clues as to the future of the medium. Kantar, the chartered accountant responsible for audience measurement in Spain, which processes a large body of information on TV consumption around the world, has published a report with forecasts for world television for the next year, titled Media Trends and Predictions 2023 ( Trends and predictions in the media 2023). These are some of their conclusions:
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– New business channels: advertising on payment platforms. In 2022, payments platforms have entered a new phase after seeing Netflix slow its growth and even lose subscribers in some quarters. The global economic crisis and accelerated growth during the pandemic join a supply-saturated panorama. Everything indicates that the platforms will reach their subscriber cap faster than expected. Therefore, they are already exploring new commercial avenues. The report recalls how YouTube stopped promoting its premium model in favor of its traditional ad-supported model. Both Netflix and Disney+ have launched plans to use ads to attract or retain customers, and there’s talk of a similar offering on Apple TV+. 2023 will be a key year to verify actual acceptance of these proposals.
– The platforms watch traditional television. Similar to adding advertising, video-on-demand services look at linear television in a different way. On the one hand, it is becoming increasingly common for traditional broadcasters to release their series earlier on their pay platforms, as Atresmedia has done in Spain and as ITVX, the platform of the UK’s largest commercial chain, ITV, has also done since November. Netflix has been testing in France with a linear channel, Netflix Direct, and several platforms are already experimenting with live broadcasts, both of sports and specific events (Netflix will do so in 2023 with a Chris Rock monologue).
Gaten Matarazzo, Finn Wolfhard and Sadie Sink in Stranger Things.
– Weekly broadcast about the “everything at once”. “In a new chapter in the TV and video market, the winners of the platform war will be those who use delivery strategies that strike the right balance between on-demand and linear video,” states the Kantar report. Traditional broadcasters adopt aspects of the video-on-demand strategy that best suit their interests, while platforms adopt traditional concepts such as publishing and broadcasting content weekly via linear channels. For this reason, the consultant is betting that the market will gradually abandon the strategies of launching content once and “all at once” in order to maximize sales. Netflix has assured that it is not considering giving up this way of publishing its series, but until recently they had not planned to insert ads… Without reaching the weekly broadcast, they have already carried out some tests such as: B. the division of the season into two parts plus recently of Stranger Things or the end of La casa de papel.
– Canceling subscriptions and favoring cheaper options (even if they contain ads). In Spain, the top reason for 23% of those planning to cancel at least one video-on-demand subscription in the next quarter is to save money. The economic crisis is driving ad-supported business models, and consumers are increasingly receptive to the idea if it saves them money, the report says. Advertisers are increasingly considering platforms in their strategies, especially to reach younger viewers. Kantar warns of the risk that these models create two types of viewers: those with less disposable income who are targeted by these ads, and those with higher incomes who do not opt into these plans with ads and to whom advertising becomes more difficult be reachable
– Big screens on small screens. There is a lot of talk about platforms allowing us to watch content when and where we want. But it turns out that most of the time we want to watch it whenever (the rush hour of time-shifted viewing practically coincides with prime time of traditional television) and wherever (i.e. the living room TV). . Viewing data from the UK and Brazil, compiled by Kantar, shows that the vast majority of broadcasts and views occur on television, with smart TVs being the primary driver of increased streaming service adoption. Smart TVs have tripled in Spain since 2017 and are the preferred device for 59% of Spaniards to view content on demand. This has also made free ad-supported platforms the fastest growing sectors of advertising spending in the United States.
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