If the Pittsburgh Steelers want to buy a quarterback — especially after we learned yesterday of their interest in Malik Willis — there’s at least a chance they’ll want to trade him. And sitting in 20th place, the team can look ahead to get their guy. While trades are impossible to predict for a million reasons, there are at least two hypotheses worth exploring.
In his recent “Football Morning in America” column, Peter King mentioned two teams looking to trade in the first round of this year’s draft – the New York Giants and the New York Jets. Here is what King commented, reacting to the official draft order:
“• The Giants, who finished fifth and seventh overall, will likely try to move one of them to try out in the first few rounds next year.
• The Jets, with four top 40 picks, would also like to defer one until next year if the right offer comes in.”
As King points out, the Giants lead the Steelers by two picks, #5 and #7. The jets are in the same boat at numbers 4 and 10. Two possible teams that the Steelers could dance with if they want to make a jump in draft order. So what might these deals look like?
Predicting deals is difficult. Different teams have different values, the draft pool itself determines how badly a team wants to stay or go down, competition from other teams looking to move up can drive up the price, and the Steelers claim they don’t use a trading chart at all. .
But to set the stage, let’s use the usual trade cost chart to give us an idea of what the cost is. And chart deals with both teams.
New York Giants
(For No. 5)
Climbing 15 spots into the top five is a daunting task, a radical move the Steelers have not yet taken under Kevin Colbert. But getting there would overtake the Carolina Panthers in 6th place, who are active in the quarterback market. Their eyes might be on Kenny Pickett, but hey, the Steelers can too, and if Pittsburgh wants to get to the front of the line, No. 5 is a great place to do so.
The fifth choice of the Giants is worth 1700 points. Here’s a deal that might work.
Giants send
No. 5 overall – 1700 points
Steelers Submit
No. 20 overall – 850 points
No. 84 Total – 170 points
2023 1st stage – about 1000 points
Total: 2020 points
Now I know the Steelers are giving the Giants an extra 500 points here. But trades rarely go perfectly clean, and if you’re a team like Pittsburgh trying to make a drastic move for a quarterback, you’ll have to pay extra for it. Call it the QB tax. I bring the 2023 first round slot also in the middle at 16th overall. The Giants score points here for risking a lower first place next season.
We also know that the Steelers don’t want to be without both of their second-day picks, as Colbert said when describing the Devin Bush trade, so they’re not going to send their 2nd and 3rd picks from this year’s crop. If King’s report is correct and the Giants want an extra first round next year, perhaps to go after the famous QB, then it’s a deal that makes sense for both sides.
And number 7? It’s behind Carolina. But if Pittsburgh would like to get Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis, or let’s say they believe the Panthers will get Pickett and Willis is their main target, then #7 makes sense too. It also allows the Steelers to get ahead of the likes of the Atlanta Falcons (#8), Seattle Seahawks (#9) and Washington Commanders (#11), all teams that are/may be in the QB market. How does the deal look like?
(For No. 7)
Giants send
No. 7 in the overall standings – 1500 points
Steelers Submit
No. 20 overall – 850 points
2023 1st stage – about 1000 points
Total: 1850 points
Very similar to the first trade, except for having to forfeit Pittsburgh’s third-round pick, No. 84 overall. Again, the Giants “win” with the points system, but overall they take a little less on the deal because it’s a slightly lower pick and they can pick anyone at #5.
In this scenario, the Steelers will not lose additional capital in the 2022 draft, retaining both Day 2 picks. The Giants get top five, 20th and first place next year. This is a good result for new CEO Joe Sean and head coach Brian Daball.
New York Jets
So giants. And what about another New York team, the Jets. What might a deal look like? They own peaks #4 and #4. There isn’t a good enough reason to move up to No. 4, so let’s focus on No. 10 if the Steelers get to the point where one of their QBs drops and the Falcons/Seahawks don’t bite for some reason.
Aircraft Submit
#10 Total – 1300 points
Steelers Submit
No. 20 overall – 850 points
#52 Total – 380 points
3rd round 2023 – about 200 points
Total: 1430 points
It’s essentially the same deal that the Steelers went from 20th to 10th with the Denver Broncos in 2019 to move up and pick up Devin Bush. This trade really puts them in front of curious team quarterbacks like Washington at #11, even Houston at #13 – they claim to ride Davis Mills but I’m not so sure) and the Saints even further away at #18. .
Of course, this deal doesn’t push any of the Jets’ top 40 picks “until next year,” as King says, but gives them another asset next year in the form of a third round. Perhaps the Jets would even prefer to trade the No. 10 for No. 20, the Steelers’ No. 3 (No. 84) and No. 2 next year.
What are the chances that these scenarios will play out? Who knows. Although I try to avoid such things “in the weeds”, this is a really useful exercise. A trade this year is entirely possible and we need to consider what partners the Steelers might have and how much it would cost. No matter what, if the Steelers pick someone they think is their quarterback, the price they’ll pay – to them – is priceless.