An error in interpreting the information led to the pharmaceutical company Q Pharma setting up a subsidiary in Argentina. “We analyzed the data of the Spanish mentality,” admits its general director César Quintanilla, “we assumed that the social security was similar to the Spanish one, and no, in Argentina there are about 50 or 60 social welfare systems.” The consumer market for its specialized products for Urology and allergology fell by 80% as a result. In the end, business went well. Argentina contributes 1.6 million to the company's total turnover, which was around 11 million in 2023. But the example shows that mistakes lurk in the business world. “Belief in our own possibilities, hunches, misinterpretation of information and excessive confidence in previous successes” can lead to wrong decisions, says Han Bleichrodt, professor of fundamentals of economic analysis at the University of Alicante (UA). . For this reason, he recommends that companies should not have “a single person making decisions, as is common in family businesses,” but rather that “shareholders should be given more control and that big decisions should always be made as a group. “”
Bleichrodt, together with Mohammed Abdellaoui, from the HEC Paris business school, and Cédric Gutierrez, from Bocconi University in Milan, conducted an experiment that confirms that 83% of business decisions are based on a “very optimistic assessment of their own attitudes.” , the result of their own beliefs and overestimation of probabilities, beyond rational reflection.” The test, contained in his research paper “Dismantling overconfidence behaviors when betting on yourself,” published in the journal Management Science, consisted of 400 interviews with volunteers who were asked to complete an intelligence test.
Based on the results, they were invited to bet on two levels. The first question was whether they had passed more than 60% of the exam. In general, they tended to adjust quite a bit, even slightly below. Then it was a matter of whether they were in the top 20. And they overestimated their possibilities. 83% “believed they were better than others.” “You always have to remember that success is part of chance,” explains Bleichrodt, “but we have no control over uncertainty.” “A minimum level of control over the situation makes you think that you control everything,” the professor continues continues, “and it is necessary to trust professionals who are more objective in making decisions.” No matter how small or how family-run the company is, a shareholder meeting, a governing body or a board of directors is always more reliable, he claims.
At Q Pharma, “daily decision-making” rests with Quintanilla, “without consulting anyone.” For the “big and strategic” ones, the family business has created “a board of directors consisting of family members and an external financial advisor”. They analyze the industry, they conduct surveys among opinion leaders and consumers, “but there are always mistakes that lead you to make decisions instinctively,” he reveals. “The opinion of the person in charge ultimately weighs more than the data” and although it is subject to “feelings and perceptions”, the experience also leads to “getting better over time, reflecting more and knowing better which databases to use In fact, one of the successes of this company founded 20 years ago, which exports to more than 15 countries and employs more than 80 people, was “achieved through intuition”. It was his father who, “based on a news story in the press,” suggested “forming a company to develop medical cannabis.” The result: “A complete success, we came at the right time.”
Javier Fur, CEO of Marjal Group, a family-owned company specializing in real estate development, tourist resorts and accommodation for coliving professionals, agrees with the academic analysis. “You have to have a bit of courage and at the same time limit the risks, which is not easy.” “Premonitions or previous experiences are dangerous,” he admits, “Business plans have to be conservative and have an alternative plan.” His group, which last year With sales of around 50 million, it bases “daily decisions on a roadmap” and leaves “openings or growth to the consensus of the boards of directors of the company's individual units”.
This control did not prevent “some errors that served to learn,” particularly with regard to “geographical relocation.” With the facilities spread between the Costa Brava and the Costa del Sol, “we thought it would be easy to build a resort 400 kilometers from our headquarters,” but that was not the case. “We learned that we need to have a lengthy onboarding process at each location to get teams to adopt our culture.” “Every innovation comes with its share of failure,” he claims, “because you won’t always get it right “It's more important to succeed than to fail,” Fur continues, “but you don't have to be afraid if you want to move forward and innovate.” This risk is “for anticipation, which is necessary in a world as competitive as… “This is crucial in today's world, when you need unique and authentic value propositions.” To do this, he recommends “paying attention to a lot of information, making collegial decisions and not losing focus.”
The family is the basis of Hiperber, founded by brothers José and Ernesto Bernabeu from a saltfish business in Elche, which currently has 79 supermarkets, generates a turnover of 200 million euros and employs 1,200 people. “We have a family protocol signed more than 25 years ago,” comments CEO José Bernabeu, son and nephew of the founders, “which characterizes the operation of the company in every respect.” “The management committee includes a finance director, a sales director and a commercial director” who carries out day-to-day operations, but purchases and negotiations “are voted and elected quarterly by a comfortable majority or by consensus.” Meetings in which even cousins, “future shareholders”, take part. In the end, “everyone has to be convinced and the consequences of the decision lie with everyone.” This feeling was conveyed by the company's pioneers. “More than the characters in Succession, we are the Peaky Blinders, but because of the family reunion, not the business model,” he jokes.
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