When Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the world watched in shock. The expectation: Russian troops would invade their capital in a few days.
Instead, in the past year, Ukrainian forces have consistently and successfully repulsed the invading forces.
But these victories come at a high price: thousands of people died; over 8 million people fled to Europe; and tensions between NATO and Moscow increased.
A year after the conflict broke out, here are some of your questions about the war answered.
When will the war in Ukraine end?
In the past year, Russia has intermittently taken control of large swathes of Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian forces successfully recaptured much of it. But this back-and-forth, according to Mathieu Droin, a visiting scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, could mean that war “is here to stay,” at least for the immediate future.
“We see that the balance of power, the military situation, is practically stagnant on the ground… Both [Länder] are convinced that they can still assert themselves militarily”.
Andrew Cottey, a professor in the Department of Government and Politics at University College Cork, gave Euronews three possible outcomes of the war.
The first – which would be the most optimistic from Kiev’s point of view – is that Ukrainian forces will successfully advance towards Mariupol on the Black Sea coast, isolating Russian forces from the southern part of the country. The move “would also put Crimea at risk and then we could see a collapse in Russian forces and effectively win Ukraine,” he said.
Another option would be a military stalemate lasting into the next year.
His final prediction is that there will be no decision. “A long scene of war […] it’s sometimes described as a kind of frozen conflict where there is some sort of truce or truce, but the conflict is truly unresolved.”
Will Ukraine join NATO?
Before Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, Kiev was already an active NATO ally, sending a handful of troops to Afghanistan during the Alliance’s mission there.
In February 2022, their relationship has rapidly strengthened.
“Obviously, the conflict is bringing Ukraine closer to NATO because [das Bündnis] may not send its troops to Ukraine, but its members will send all their tanks, armored vehicles, anti-aircraft systems and artillery there to help the resistance,” Jamie Shea, former NATO Deputy Secretary General, told Euronews. .
Full NATO membership would guarantee Ukraine a much higher level of protection against Russia – which partnership alone could never provide.
One of the key aspects of NATO is Article 5: an attack on one member state is an attack on all. That is, in the event of an attack on a member state, all other NATO members would help defend it.
However, NATO also stipulates that candidate countries must not have any unresolved territorial disputes within their borders.
“[Die Mitgliedschaft der Ukraine] is highly unlikely as the war continues,” Droin said.
“It means that as long as there are Russian troops on Ukrainian soil, there will be [die ukrainische Mitgliedschaft] forcing NATO and Russia to face each other head-on in the country”.
However, Shea argued, Ukraine’s membership of NATO “is becoming more and more likely, even if it doesn’t happen today”.
That’s because NATO members gave Ukraine billions of euros in military aid last year, turning its armed forces into a “NATO army by alliance standards and equipment”.
“NATO cannot keep Ukraine in some sort of perpetual waiting room, saying yes to membership in principle but never setting a date.”
Could the fight spread to other countries?
Many in the international community feared that the conflict could spill over Ukraine’s borders.
But as the fighting progresses, that idea seems increasingly unlikely, despite what Droin calls “miscalculations”, such as a missile hitting Poland in November.
Because a climb to Europe is of no interest to anyone.
“It’s fair to say that nobody wants that. It’s not in Russia’s interest at the moment. It’s not in NATO’s interest.
“So there are agreed lines that conflicts should remain within Ukraine’s borders.”
Instead, he argued, there could be more “hybrid attacks” or “hybrid cyber-attacks” outside of Ukraine.
Earlier this month, Moldovan President Maia Sandu reported that the Kremlin was planning a possible coup within its borders. An accusation Moscow rejects.
But the war could spill over if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to Cottey.
“If Russia used nuclear weapons, the West could become directly involved in the war in Ukraine, sending troops to [das Land] dispatched.
“And that, of course, is a very worrying scenario. However, many analysts think this is quite unlikely.
“It would not necessarily be militarily useful for Russia and would have a number of very negative consequences for Moscow.”