Most of us do not prepare for another 4-6 months. But it’s never too early to dive. While every first round fantasy football the mock draft is still in the works, this early look at the forecasts of elite players for 2022 offers clues as to which players may become drafts theft and which pose a greater risk than many realize.
This draft layout suggests a 12-team PPR league with fairly standard scoring rules (for example, no bonus points for 100-yard quick runs). The starting lineup of this league involves one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one RB / WR / TE flex, one kicker and one D / ST. Don’t worry: we won’t get to kickers and D / ST until summer.
Look elsewhere if you want a common layout with all the regular players. Since 2015, the first two pre-season fantasy RBs (based on ADP) have played an average of just 10 games this season – the lowest average among all pre-season top 20 fantasy RBs. As a result, 50% of these 14 “elite” humps turned out to be busts, a total of only 79.4 fantastic points per season.
So as we look at this mock-up of Round 1, think about historical probabilities. A large percentage of the alleged “bust-resistant” players will actually drop out. If we can pinpoint who are safe players in the first round and who need to fade, that could mean the difference between a title and a lost season.
1) Najee Harris, RB, Steelers
The main topic of this first round is the excessive use of RB. How much risk will we take for huge potential payouts? When it comes to second-year professional Naji Harris, we will take a lot of risks. Historically, 73% of RBs with at least 350+ touches per season scored fewer fantasy points the following season. In all 350+ touch RBs, the average net regression is 23%.
Harris won 381 touches last season. This is certainly a yellow flag. Still, he played alongside one of the least effective QBs in the league, running behind a distinctly level offensive line. Pittsburgh’s first-round pick for 2021 will be presented again in 2022, this time in a likely more powerful attack. It should improve last year’s almost elite production. Given his youth and elite use of passes, he could easily score 350 fantastic points.
2) Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
Derrick Henry’s huge workload for 2020, which included a huge 378 curries, led me to warn readers to fade it into drafts and sell high during the season. Harris could realistically withstand its heavy use, as a significant percentage was emitted into the air. But drawing lines on the ground takes more influence. Henry will return healthy in 2022, leaving the campaign with 237 touches. While D’Onta Foreman could replace from time to time, Henry must remain at the center of what needs to be an improved attack.
3) Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
Most people rank Jonathan Taylor as the undisputed number one for 2022. I’m a little more cautious. He made an average of 309 careers in three seasons in Wisconsin. If we include two professional seasons, he has an average of 292 careers a year since his first campaign. Can it handle the load? Obviously yes, for now. Will the Colts relieve their young superstar and give a little more running to the inexplicably forgotten Nyheim Hines? This is the big question.
In the games since his outburst with 35 touches in their victory over the Bills in Week 11, his performance has dropped by more than half a yard yard and mostly against defenses in the bottom half against fantasy RB. During that time, Indy unnecessarily gave him 32 career goals in a 31-point victory over the Texans. All of this was ridiculous overuse, and as the NFL has proven hundreds of times, it’s unsustainable.
Like Harris, Taylor remains young and has many great years ahead of him. But we should expect a modest reduction in touches, as the team strives to keep its RB franchise in basic shape for December, January and beyond.
4) Cooper Coop, WR, Rams
What needs to be said? Not much, except that Cooper Kupp is one of the three WRs in my top 12. Why? Because the elite WRs have proven to be stronger than the elite RB season after season. We do not chase points. We lock elite points with a relatively high probability.
5) Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase was WR5 last season despite a tie for 17th in goals (128) and 18th in catches (81). He achieved this despite a period of six games in which Joe Barrow had only 6 passes for a touchdown. Of course, 3 of them went to Chase, who seems to have nowhere to go but up.
6) Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
Alvin Camara was the overall RB8, although he missed four games and served as a focal point for the opponent’s defense. His yards before the contact fell by half a yard compared to 2020, but he still remained elite in the department of broken boards. Although it will be 27 years old this summer, if we assume that the Saints will stabilize their attack by stepping up their attack (including the return of Michael Thomas), then the Chamber should be no worse than backend RB1 – and as always, with the elite up.
Who are our top players in the back of the first round? Again, some may surprise you.
7) Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
In his first two campaigns, Justin Jefferson had a 292-3,016-17 reception line. As Adam’s age progresses, Tylen Jefferson will take on an even more dominant role in the Viking game. It is a sure choice in the first round for those who do not want to bet on 50/50 RB.
8) Austin Eckeler, RB, Chargers
Speaking of 50/50, Austin Eckler is coming out of his second consecutive season with an average of 50+ yards per game, while accumulating 50+ assists. We should expect at least a slight regression from his expanded campaign in 2021, when he finished as a clear RB2. 276 touches and 20 touchdowns are simply unrealistic for 2022. Chargers will try to help him even more (maybe give more to Justin Jackson).
9) D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions
How good can D’Andre Swift become? Still just 23, he jumped from 12.3 touches per game in 2020 to 16.4 last season while playing in a very weak attack. His active role in the passing game keeps his floor as high as Eckeler’s (when they are both healthy). And let’s keep in mind that Swift was 10th in RB fantasy points per game. So there’s nothing “bold” about calling him a first-round player. The question is whether he can stay on the field.
10) Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers
Christian McCafrey is one of the most difficult RBs to evaluate in fantasy. After almost two lost seasons, the future 26-year-old footballer has reached a key moment in his career. As I wrote in the summer of 2020, the Panthers hit McCafrey in the ground in 2019 and they (and the fantasy managers) would pay the price. But its limited use since then (only 218 touches) and exceptional reception skills would make it the top 12 RB, even if it only makes 250-275 touches.
11) Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals
Last summer I pushed Joe Mixon as the overall pick for the RB5 and the draft in the first round, despite its value in the RB13 ADP and second / third round. A healthy season in an improved attack works wonders for talented defenders like Mixon.
However, be careful not to overestimate it. He slowed significantly over the course of the season and failed to clear 3.9 yards of carry-over in any of his last five regular-season games – not coincidentally, right after an eight-day period when he collected 62 touches. He had as many games with 0 or 1 tricks as with 2+. The volume and TD capabilities in an almost elite attack should keep it well fed. However, I expect a modest retreat, as Cincinnati is looking to keep it fresh for January.
12) Jaylan Waddle, WR, Dolphins
When the Dolphins stopped messing around and started focusing on rookie Jaylan Waddle last year, he proved to be one of the best receivers in the league. In his last 11 games (starting in the 6th week) he scored 191.5 points in fantasy. That reaches 296 points for a season of 17 games, which puts him right next to Tyrick Hill. But unlike Hill, Waddle’s trajectory is sharp. While you can probably wait to pick him up in the late second round, by the end of the season I believe he will be worth choosing in the top 12.
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