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Can Taylor Swift influence the US elections in November? This somewhat strange question has been repeated in the USA for weeks. The reason is simple: the artist is extremely well known, has millions of fans, appeals to a relevant constituency (young white people) and is also unlike other celebrities who are often discreet, the artist could once again publicly support a candidate, the Democrat Joe Biden , support like she did in 2020.
I looked for data to examine this issue, starting with the basics: What do we know about Swift's fans?
We know a lot. The first thing to check is whether there are many. 6% of Americans describe themselves as a “fan” of the singer; and according to YouGov polls, up to a third of people describe themselves as at least “somewhat of a fan”. In the graphic I show the same data for different groups:
If we look at the declared fans – dark purple – we see that there are more of them among young people, people with upper middle incomes and in the northeast of the country, the region of origin of Taylor Swift. But it is interesting to see that his fans do not stand out among the white population, and that there are almost as many men as women. The occasional fans are even more heterogeneous: one in four 65-year-olds describes themselves as “more of a fan”.
The Pennsylvania singer has a diverse fan base. Even if we go into the ideological field. Taylor Swift said In 2020 I would vote for Joe Bidenwhich obviously brings them closer to the Democrats, but that doesn't stop them from having Republican fans:
10% of Democratic voters say they are a “fan” of Swift, but so do 6% of Republicans. That's a lot of people on both sides of the political spectrum. And what's more: Among his fans in 2020 there would be almost as many Donald Trump voters as Biden voters.
It is strange that the ideological bias is greater among the “some fans”. What is my hypothesis? On the one hand, I imagine that many of her true followers have been loyal followers for years, perhaps even before the singer endorsed Biden, and that they haven't turned away since then. At the same time, there may be some Democrats who dare to call themselves “something of a fan” because the singer supported their party.
Finally, let's think about Taylor Swift's potential impact in the November election.
The first thing is important to remember that the artist is popular: 54% of Americans have a positive opinion of her. His score is better than that of Biden (48%) and Trump (41%), although not as good as that of other celebrities such as Morgan Freeman (80%), Will Smith (62%) or Michelle Obama (60%). ). .
Furthermore, the table above reflects a trend. This winter, Swift appears to have lost popularity among Republicans and independents. Perhaps the sympathies he inspires are polarized because his character has been politicized by this debate about whether he supports a candidate (or not).
In any case, its value as an elective good remains intact. First, because this process of polarization is ongoing (half of respondents say they don't know whether Taylor Swift is a Republican or a Democrat). And secondly, because even if the singer only addressed the latter, she could still benefit democratic interests by advocating participation and sympathizers excluded from the elections or young people who support a candidate who has more than 80 will take part in the elections, are cold, could push to vote for years.
Taylor Swift, during a concert in Sydney, Australia.Photo: DON ARNOLD/TAS24 | Video: EPV
So will it matter if Taylor Swift asks to vote for Biden?
I dare to say yes. From the previous data and this one too: 15% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans directly recognize that the likelihood that Taylor Swift supports someone increases the likelihood that they will vote for that person.
Other stories
📝 1. The price of the surname Zhang or Zhu
After completing their doctorates in the US, Chinese economists with last names at the end of the alphabet – Zhang or Zhu – are 20% more likely to return home than to pursue a career in the US. The reason? An unfair bias: In economics, the authors of a research study sign it in alphabetical order, regardless of merit, but that doesn't stop the first signatories from being more visible. The Zhangs are the last to sign, without giving a reason, and that damages their careers. This study shared by Marta Suárez-Varela shows it.
🏡 2. We are looking for 40 rental properties on Idealista. They are all more expensive than the new government reference
The recently introduced government reference system for residential rental prices represents a parallel world that does not fit the current rental market. We compared 40 Idealista advertisements for Madrid and Barcelona with the ministry's guide prices: all of them are offered at higher prices on the portal, up to twice as much.
It is no surprise that the price index is pointing downwards. Firstly, due to the nature of the calculation. But also because one of the potential purposes of the system is precisely to limit the price. It could be used to set a maximum price for rentals in areas classified as polluted. So far only Catalonia has taken this step.
📜 3. An AI to decipher papyri
2,000 years ago, a volcanic eruption buried the Villa of the Papyri, making it the only ancient library to remain intact. But opening its secrets poses a double problem: you not only have to decipher the spelling, but you also have to first get to the contents of the papyrus rolls without them falling apart.
This is where a competition comes into play, the Vesuvius Challenge 2023, which brought together a community of participants (and collaborators) to try to solve this challenge using artificial vision and machine learning.
And a team has won: “Today we are happy to announce that our crazy project was successful. After 2,000 years we can finally read the scrolls,” says one of the prize’s sponsors. In the picture the last part of the first reading roll, which contains an unpublished text from antiquity. The author, it is said, is probably the Epicurean philosopher Philodemus, who writes here about music, food and enjoying the pleasures of life. In the final section he attacks some unnamed ideological opponents, perhaps the Stoics?, who “have nothing to say about pleasure, neither in general nor in particular”.
Text of a rolled papyrus that has not been seen for 2,000 years and can now be deciphered thanks to artificial vision technology. Vesuvius Challenge
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