The dust has settled on the 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame voting. With a view to next season, we can already start preparing the ballot papers.
Scott Rolen was inducted into the Hall of Fame with 76.3 percent. Jeff Kent walked out of the election after his 10 years. The following players received between five and 75 percent and have not been on the ballot for a full 10 years, meaning they will be back next year:
Carlos Beltrán, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodríguez, Manny Ramírez, Omar Vizquel, Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Rollins, Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter and Francisco Rodríguez.
That’s the starting point. Next the newcomers.
Hall of Fame rules dictate that a player must be retired for five seasons before being included in the BBWAA election. In recent years, the choice has been between 25 and 35 players. This means that for this next cycle we will be adding at least the following 10 names, in addition to at least a few others.
Adrian Beltre
Oh damn yes we start here. While I enjoy debating and learning about past players over the course of years of research, it’s also fun to have a no-brainer along. We haven’t seen anyone surpass 80 percent of the vote since Derek Jeter hit nearly 100 percent for the 2020 class. Beltré won’t be unanimous, I don’t think, but he’ll fly past 80 percent with ease.
We’re talking about an incredibly likeable, well-loved player with a great all-time resume. He amassed 3,166 career hits, including 636 doubles and 477 homers. He drove 1,707 runs home and scored 1,524 goals. He hasn’t surpassed 100 strikeouts in any of his last 11 seasons. A career hitter at .286, he broke .300 seven times. All of this, combined with his long history of exceptional defense at third base, puts him third in a career WAR third baseman behind Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews. That’s it.
And as a bonus, his Wikipedia page doesn’t have “controversies” or “legal issues” or anything, but it does have “charitable and humanitarian work.”
The only thing I’m not looking forward to here is the inevitable and desperate pleas for attention/engagement on social media from supposed naysayers, whether voters or fans.
Mauer is a decent case for why we wait five years after a player retires before debating their credentials. Towards the end of his career I just saw way too much negativity coming his way. We don’t have to go into the reasons again now. What we can do is look at his resume as a whole.
Mauer won an MVP and three batting titles. He also collected three gold gloves and five silver clubs as catchers. This kind of skills at this position is already rare air. He averaged .306 in his career with a .388 on-base percentage, and while performance wasn’t his calling card, he still hit enough to retire with 124 OPS+. It ranks 13th all-time among players who have spent at least half their time behind the plate and appeared in at least 1,000 games.
Mauer ranks ninth among catchers with 2,123 hits, eleventh for his 1,018 runs, and third for his 428 doubles. He adds 143 home runs and 923 RBI. In WAR, Mauer ranks ninth among catchers, behind eight Hall of Famers and ahead of the other eight. He is seventh in JAWS behind Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodríguez, Carlton Fisk, Mike Piazza and Yogi Berra.
The six-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger winner and 2008 World Series Champion is a Phillies legend. Over his 16 seasons in the big league, Utley averaged .275/.358/.465 (117 OPS+) with 1,885 hits, 411 doubles, 259 home runs, 1,025 RBI, 1,103 runs and 154 stolen bases. He had three top 10 finishes in MVP voting, but never more than seventh.
During Utley’s time with the Phillies, he had a .402 OBP and .500 slugging with seven doubles, a triple, 10 homers and 25 RBI in 46 playoff games.
He could still be in a fight. Aside from the 2,000 hit mark or staggering totals in anything else, he has to rely on the voters who like JAWS. He is 12th under second basemen, behind 10 Hall of Famers, Robinson Canó and Bobby Grich. He is ahead of several Hall of Famers such as Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. He’s roughly on par with the average JAWS for the current Hall of Famer second basemen, although he’s slightly below in WAR.
He’ll end up doing better than the players he’s most associated with like Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, but I think it’s going to be close.
Injuries in the latter part of his career probably cost him, not unlike Don Mattingly or Dale Murphy in the ’80s. At age 30, Wright was well on his way to a résumé in the Hall of Fame. He finished his career with .296/.376/.491 in nearly 1,600 games, 133 OPS+. He also only had 1,777 hits, 390 doubles, 242 home runs, 970 RBI and 949 runs with 196 stolen bases. Without a higher finish than fourth in MVP voting or a huge playoff dossier, it’s hard to see Wright having any real chance. Sure enough, he’s 26th in JAWS, well below Hall’s standard and in line with good players like Ron Cey and Josh Donaldson.
The seven-time All-Star won four Silver Sluggers, a batting title and an NLCS MVP, and was a mid-order run producer for a World Series champion. In parts of 15 seasons, Holliday cut 0.299/0.379/0.510 (132 OPS+). He amassed 2,096 hits, 468 doubles, 316 home runs, 1,220 RBI and 1,157 runs. He’s never won an MVP, but he was runner-up once.
Partly due to some compilations in Coors Field and poor defensive stats, the WAR and JAWS component doesn’t help. He ranks 36th among left fielders at both JAWS and WAR, sitting right next to Brett Gardner and George Foster. Good players but not a hall of fame company.
Holliday would have to make a big dent in his counting stats with the Vocal Body, and they’re nowhere near nice round numbers like 3,000 hits and 500 home runs.
Adrian Gonzalez
González, the first overall pick in 2000, had a very productive 15-year career. He led the league in hits, RBI and walks once a piece. He surpassed 2,000 hits (2,050) and hit 317 home runs with 1,202 RBI and finished his career with .287/.358/.485 (129 OPS+). The five-time All-Star drove home at least 100 runs seven times and three more 90+ RBI seasons. He finished fourth in MVP voting and won four Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers.
Among first basemen, González is 40th in JAWS and 43rd in WAR.
Jose Bautista
Remember when he became the biggest hitter in baseball? That was fun. After hitting 59 career homers in his season at age 28, Bautista hit 54 clubs in 2010 and 43 in 2011, and led the majors in both seasons. He ended up appearing in six straight All-Star Games and finished in the top eight of MVP voting four times, including a third and fourth place finish.
The climax was there.
Bautista ended his career as a .247/.361/.475 (124 OPS+) hitter with 1,496 hits, 312 doubles, 344 homers, 975 RBI and 1,022 runs.
But this summit was certainly fun.
Jose Reyes
The four-time All-Star won the 2011 batting title and led his league in trebles four times, stealing three times and scoring once. He finished a .283 hitter with 103 OPS+, 2,138 hits, 387 doubles, 131 triples, 145 home runs, 719 RBI, 1,180 runs and 517 stolen bases. The triples and stolen bases seem to jump out, but he’s 78th in career triples and 33rd in stolen bases.
Reyes is ranked 57th among shortstops in JAWS.
Martinez, a professional hitter, quickly had to stop being a full-time catcher to keep his racquet at the required level. He ended up serving more as a DH than any other position, although he wasn’t far behind at the catcher.
In nearly 2,000 career games, Martinez hit 2,153, including 423 doubles and 246 home runs. He drove 1,178 home, scored 914 goals and averaged a career .295 with 118 OPS+. A five-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger, he was a 2014 AL MVP voting runner-up.
Even listing him as a catcher with those offensive stats, he’s still only 30th in JAWS and 33rd in WAR.
There’s a Cy Young along with four All-Star games on Colon’s record. He won 247 career games while batting 2,535. His nearly 3,500 innings in modern times is also a huge workload.
But.
Colon’s career 4.12 ERA (106 ERA+) and 1.31 WHIP leave a lot to be desired and show how much compiling he accomplished late in his career at the cost of his disability. Oh, and there was a PED suspension.
Other possible first-time visitors: James Shields, Brandon Phillips, Yovani Gallardo, Doug Fister, Ryan Madson