President Vladimir Putin’s defense minister has appointed Russia’s top general, chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, 67, as war leader in Ukraine.
It was the most dramatic in a series of leadership changes since the Russian invasion in February.
Here’s what we know so far:
poor performance
Many of the nationalist war bloggers who have permission from the Kremlin to criticize the conduct of the war have blamed Gerasimov for ensuring that a superpower military – ostensibly modernized and expensively re-equipped over the past 15 years – has not so clearly failed to subdue it much smaller neighbor.
Critics in Ukraine, in the West, and even within Russia, have characterized the Russian armed forces as naïve, ill-prepared and ill-equipped, unresponsive, and fractured by disparate and often distant command structures.
After an unplanned mobilization campaign failed to turn the tide in Russia’s favour, rumors circulated for months that Gerasimov, who is largely invisible to the public, would be out.
Both Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group treaty militia, and Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of southern Russia’s Chechen Republic, have thinly criticized Gerasimov and pointedly claimed battlefield success for their own supposedly superior, semi-autonomous armed forces.
Defense Department supporters have said that Russia often performs poorly at the start of wars and many of the supply, technology and leadership problems that have surfaced over the past 10 months have been or are being resolved.
What does this mean for the battlefield?
The Defense Ministry said the seniority of the commander in charge of the “military special operation” reflected the expansion of its scope and the need to improve organization and leadership.
Gerasimov’s deputies will be Army General Sergei Surovikin, the theater’s former commander, appointed three months ago and nicknamed “General Armageddon”; Army General Oleg Salyukov; and deputy chief of staff Colonel-General Alexei Kim.
Igor Korotchenko, an uncompromising military analyst who is given ample space on state television, said Putin’s decision was driven by obtaining heavy, longer-range weapons from the West and the prospect that Ukraine would soon receive Western armored fighting vehicles and possibly main battle tanks.
He said Gerasimov’s arrival increased the likelihood that Russia could use nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine.
“The appointment of Gerasimov means that all means of destruction in the arsenals of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation – without exception – can be used.”
Shoigu on Tuesday vowed to build a deeper arsenal of weapons, strengthen aviation technology to better evade anti-aircraft defenses and improve drone production.
What about politics?
By placing Gerasimov in direct command, Putin can signal to the West his determination to win the war, bolster the army’s standing vis-à-vis the Prigozhin and Kadyrov militias, and, last but not least, make his top general more responsible for the day. carrying out the invasion today.
“Now the General Staff is directly and uncompromisingly responsible for absolutely everything,” said Semyon Pegov, a Russian military blogger who uses the name Wargonzo.
“‘General Armageddon’ is still at the heart of decision-making, but in a much less vulnerable position.”
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the analytical company R.Politik, was not convinced that the change would make much difference.
“Gerasimov was put in command of the military operation because of Surovikin’s severe setbacks,” she said.
“Putin is looking for effective tactics against the backdrop of ‘creeping’ defeat. He tries to reshuffle the stones and therefore gives a chance to those who convince him. Today Gerasimov proved convincing. Tomorrow it could be someone else.”
Who is Valery Gerasimov?
Gerasimov was appointed chief of staff and deputy defense minister by Putin on November 9, 2012, three days after Putin’s longtime ally Sergei Shoigu was appointed defense minister.
Each of the men holds one of the three nuclear briefcases capable of ordering a Russian nuclear attack.
Gerasimov played a key role in Russia’s 2014 capture of Crimea from Ukraine and in Russia’s landmark military support to President Bashar al-Assad in the war in Syria.
The US State Department sanctioned him the day after invading Ukraine, saying he was one of three senior Russians, along with Putin, directly responsible for the war.
Despite this, Gerasimov sometimes speaks with US Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Born on September 8, 1955 in Kazan, Gerasimov rose through the ranks of the Russian armored forces, graduating in 1997 from the Military Academy of the General Staff.