The news caused a stir at the beginning of the year. On February 4, the U.S. Army arrived off the coast of South Carolina USA shot down a supposed Chinese spy balloon that had been traveling from west to east for four days 60,000 feet high over North America. The balloon was first spotted in the skies of Montana, then traveled to the Atlantic, where it was shot down on the president’s orders Joe Biden, and later recovered by Navy personnel.
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The Chinese President’s Government, Xi Jinpinghe protested angrily, an exchange of bitter accusations ensued between them Washington and Beijing and the alert level of both military apparatuses was raised, in what analysts described as the lowest – and most dangerous – point in relations since the rapprochement marked by the president’s visit. Richard Nixon traveled to China in 1972.
The worst thing is that, due to the growing differences over the dispute over the island of Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory but which remains autonomous and is under the protection and arms supply of Washington, the communication channels between the militaries of both countries are becoming weaker than more effective seen as a prevention mechanism Conflicts and war escalationwas cut off in August 2022.
US President Joe Biden (l.) says goodbye to Chinese President Xi Jinping after the meeting in San Francisco.
Many times in Cold War history, similar channels between Moscow and Washington have cleared up misunderstandings about aircraft and submarine movements that, if escalated, would have brought the world to the brink of a nuclear holocaust.
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Similarly, communications between the Chinese and American militaries since the mid-1970s built mutual trust and allowed both sides to better understand each other each other’s military movements, so that no signal is misinterpreted and the risk of military escalation arises. All this until August 2022 when that bridge broke.
And it is precisely the restoration of such valuable communication that is the greatest achievement – not the only one – of the lunch that Presidents Biden and Xi held in this area last week San Francisco, California, during the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Mechanism (APEC) Summit.
The US President said the meeting on Wednesday the 15th, which lasted more than four hours, allowed him to have with Xi “some of the most constructive and productive discussions we have ever had.” “We didn’t always agree,” Biden explained, but “I know the man, I know his approach, I looked him in the eyes (…), he has a different vision than me, but he was upright. “..”.
China’s official Xinhua news agency, in turn, quoted Xi as saying: “Mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutual and beneficial cooperation are the lessons that both sides have learned from 50 years of relations.” China and the United States Turning your back is not an option…” But there was more to these statements than just good manners.
(You can read: Joe Biden again says Xi Jinping is a ‘dictator’ after meeting in US)
Photo:
Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP
agreement
After the balloon accident in February, the ability to restore communication between the two gigantic military devices was reduced to a minimum. And the risks increased every day.
“Here in Europe, we feared that this lack of dialogue would lead to a serious incident in the China Sea, where the movements of Beijing’s planes and aircraft carriers are closely followed by American ships assisting Taiwan in surveillance,” he told EL TIME a European diplomat in Paris.
A State Department source had told CNN before the summit that Biden would insist on this point to Xi, but that Washington was not optimistic because the Chinese had been “hesitant” until then due to the distrust that has grown throughout the globe.
Planet Earth is big enough for both countries to thrive
The Defense Minister’s visits to Beijing in June were necessary Lloyd Austin and the national security advisor, Jake Sullivanand days later that of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to give Xi and his team reasons to make the move.
According to a full CNN report on the contents of the dialogue last Wednesday, the US president began the conversation with his Chinese counterpart there. “I think it’s important that you and I understand each other clearly from leader to leader, without any misunderstandings or misunderstandings,” Biden told Xi as he prepared for lunch at a remote mansion south of San Francisco.
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Xi’s answer was apt. “Planet Earth is big enough for both countries to be successful,” the Chinese president said through a translator. “Relations between China and the United States have never been easy in the past 50 years (…) and have always faced problems of one kind or another. However, it has continued to evolve…,” he added.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden at their last meeting.
From then on, among other things, it was much easier to achieve the restoration of the military communications that Washington had worked so hard to achieve in the previous months.
But there were even more successes. Washington had been pushing for years for Beijing to commit its authorities to the fight against fentanyl, one of the main opioids at the center of the epidemic that has ravaged the United States for several years and caused nearly 110,000 deaths there in 2022.
A lot of that Fentanyl Smuggled into American cities, it comes from factories in China that export this synthetic opiate to Mexico, where it is processed in illegal laboratories and shipped to its northern neighbor.
If Beijing manages to control this production, U.S. anti-drug authorities say it will reduce supplies to Mexican drug traffickers. and as a result, less fentanyl will reach major cities in the world’s leading power.
A third agreement between Biden and Xi proposes launching joint work to study the impact of artificial intelligence in a range of areas, particularly in the military industry. The agreement on this point is based on the recognition by both governments of the “real risks” posed by the use of AI “in military affairs or in nuclear operations”.
(Also: China and the US agree to restore high-level communications between their militaries.)
This was the Chinese balloon that caused tensions between Washington and Beijing earlier this year.
Photo:
AFP PHOTO / CHASE DOAK
Did Biden take advantage?
For Xi, his great success lies in the summit itself and the climate of detente that characterized it. This has been stated by several international study centers, such as the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), which closely monitors relations between Washington and Beijing.
“On the Chinese side,” Marc Julienne, an Ifri expert, said this weekend, “the priority has been to give American investors certainty about the stability of relations with Washington and about the stability of the Chinese economy, at a time when in which the” “The country faces major challenges,” including weakening growth that may not reach 5 percent this year, well below the average of 8 percent in previous years.
On the Chinese side, the main aim was to provide American investors with certainty about the stability of relations with Washington and the stability of the Chinese economy.
But it is likely that Biden gained the biggest advantage. On the eve of a very complicated election year, the summit may have helped ensure that there are no major shocks in relations with China that complicate daily life.
But beyond that, reactivating communication channels between the military, without being forced to abandon its warnings in favor of Beijing respecting Taiwan’s autonomy or selling weapons to that island, sends a signal of strength, something Biden will do in just over two months needs before the start of the primary campaign with a view to the presidential elections in November.
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And when it comes to fentanyl, while it is difficult to say to what extent Xi will commit his administration to controlling opioid manufacturers, Biden’s success lies in the fact that it was an issue that China has always refused to discuss had to speak as it completely rejected the containment of these sectors. Part of its powerful pharmaceutical industry could be involved in sales to Mexican cartels.
As Nicolas Baverez, French essayist and author of Democracies vs. Authoritarian Empires, explains: “Joe Biden has imposed the American approach to sensible management of the competition between the two powers and also his agenda.”
“Xi Jinping carried out a tactical retreat – added Baverez in the Paris newspaper Le Figaro – in the face of the failure of his strategy of frontal opposition, trying to persuade the leaders of major American companies to invest again in China.”
“This development – Baverez concluded – reflects the transition of the balance of power between the two giants that dominated the history of the 20th century in favor of the United States.” Perhaps that is why Biden was able to insist after lunch that Xi was a “dictator.” – a word he immediately qualified – without this leading to a harsh Chinese reaction.
However, Baverez and other analysts agree that The meeting’s successes are limited, and even if Biden gained some advantage, he failed on one crucial point: persuading Xi to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin not to further escalate the war in Ukraine.
But this black dot does not overshadow the summit. The Washington Post concluded in its editorial on Sunday: “Although few formal agreements have been announced, dialogue is preferable to insults, and constant communication is better than conflict (…). Dealing with China is a delicate balancing act. However, reframing based on reality rather than hype will make the world a little safer.”
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MAURICIO VARGAS
ANALYST
TIME