Player is loading
Exactly a month has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, but a military or diplomatic solution to the war still seems a long way off. After four weeks of fighting, Russian forces have occupied several areas in the northeast and southeast, but the only major city captured is Kherson, while on the other fronts the Russian army faced logistical and military problems that prevented them from advancing and capturing Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and Mariupol. In recent days, Mariupol has acquired new importance from a strategic point of view, because according to various analyzes it has become the shortterm goal of the Russian armed forces to conquer it, to consolidate control over the Donbass and in general over the territories around the Sea of Azov . .
Mariupol, southeast
Mariupol had a population of nearly 500,000 before the war began and was the main port and industrial center of the Sea of Azov, the Black Sea basin overlooked by the Donbass. From the beginning of the war, Mariupol was immediately attacked by a significant part of Russian troops from Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, and from the eastern border.
Water, energy and food shortages began from the early days of the invasion, and ever since, more and more people have tried to flee the city as Russian forces increasingly bombed hospitals, schools, theaters and civilian buildings.
But despite the intensity of the Russian bombardment, the Ukrainian defenses in the city appear to be holding up, refusing to surrender earlier this week. Almost all buildings have been destroyed, the last journalists from Western newspapers left Mariupol last week, and there is no news on how many civilian deaths the siege is causing.
The resistance of Mariupol has become a major problem for the Russian army, as its capture would allow it to consolidate a corridor between the breakaway republics in Donbass and Crimea, expand its control over the Sea of Azov and be able to to field a more substantial military victory compared to taking a smaller city like Kherson, but where Russian occupation is resisted on a daily basis.
In addition, Mariupol is an important city for the “Azov battalion, which consists mainly of farright volunteers and represents a minority of the Ukrainian armed forces. Given that the Russian government falsely claims it intends to “denazify” Ukraine with an invasion (strictly termed a “military special operation”), a victory at Mariupol would make a good case for Russian propaganda.
This set of reasons has led to the Russian war effort focusing more on this area and less on the others, where missile attacks continue but troops are at a standstill.
As Michael Kofman, an analyst at US think tank CNA and an expert on the Russian military, noted, “Moscow is looking for something to announce victory with. However, it is difficult to predict what will happen after a possible capture of Mariupol . It is not certain that Russia will be satisfied with consolidating its dominance in the Donbass and negotiating with Ukraine: it could also take time to reorganize its armed forces.
Odessa and Mykolayiv, south
After taking the cities of Cherson and Melitopol on February 25, Russian troops advanced to Mykolaiv to the west. It was believed that their goal was to capture the city in order to open a passage to Odessa, Ukraine’s largest and most important port city. But even in Mykolaiv, breaking through the Ukrainian defense proved more difficult than expected.
For days, Russia bombarded the city, targeting civilian targets to psychologically exhaust the resistance. But the soldiers and civilian volunteers of Mykolayiv organized themselves by erecting barriers in the streets, ready to blow up the bridges and arming themselves with Molotov cocktails to repel any advance. The resistance’s morale remained high, also thanks to the presence of the region’s governor, Vitaly Kim, who gained increasing visibility through messages in which he was calm, in control of the situation and sometimes even brazen.
“Like the Ukrainian President [Zelensky]He is a political newcomer, wrote the Economist. “A random military leader. His nowfamous daily videos combine humor with lightningfast jokes about the stupidity of the Russian military. When he speaks, people listen to him.”
Concrete block and sandbag barriers in Odessa, March 22, 2022 (AP Photo / Petros Giannakouris)
The Mykolayiv Front was very important in the first and second weeks of fighting because it prevented Russia from moving its troops to Odessa and providing land assistance for the eventual landing of Russian military ships, which have been found off the coast since the beginning of the invasion of the city. Since then, the Russian army has essentially ceased around Mykolaiv, while Odessa remains one of the few Ukrainian cities not to have been massively attacked by Russian missiles.
In this area, too, the Russian forces suffered a rather unexpected defeat, which helped to crush the troops’ morale: the defeat occurred in early March in Voznesensk, a small town northwest of Mykolayiv. From there, Russian forces could have reorganized to more effectively surround Mykolaiv and perhaps attempt to reach Odessa. But things did not go as expected: 30 of their 43 military vehicles were destroyed, a helicopter shot down and troops were forced to retreat.
Kyiv and Kharkiv, North and Northeast
The Northern Front was considered particularly important at the start of the invasion because Putin’s plan was to seize the capital quickly and replace Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy with a proRussian “puppet government”: it was one of “Blitzkrieg”. After the initial plan failed, over the weeks the Northern Front was where the Russian Army’s logistical problems began to arise.
From the north, Russian military vehicles drove south, respectively towards Chernihiv, towards Ivankiv which is about 70 kilometers from Kyiv and towards Kharkiv, further east. They traversed forests and countryside over which they had no full control, and it was there that the Ukrainian resistance organized, sabotaging and damaging the passing convoys. Meanwhile, trenches were dug around Kyiv and two bridges on the outskirts of the capital were blown up to prevent a possible attack on the city.
Although the Ukrainian defenses in the north resisted, the Russian army managed to encircle several cities and in particular to bombard those that it was approaching, namely Kharkiv and Chernihiv. On Wednesday, Chernihiv Mayor Vladyslav Atroshenko said there were so many dead that “they don’t enter the city cemetery anymore, we keep them in morgues and cold rooms.”
Kharkiv, March 20, 2022 (AP Photo / Andrew Marienko)
In Kyiv the situation is different. The most violent bombing took place on Monday, completely destroying a shopping center and killing eight people. Attacks then continued more or less daily, albeit less intensely than that of the mall, and meanwhile news was coming in of a Ukrainian counterattack which appears to have managed to repel Russian forces to the west (must be information though) . taken with caution).
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army announced it had regained control of Makariv, a town west of Kyiv, in what it called a crucial victory. The news was partially confirmed by American and British intelligence, which said Russian forces in the west have effectively withdrawn while being stationary in the east.
However, the Makariv Territory still seems disputed by both sides. That’s what Washington Post reporters said on Wednesday, who went to a checkpoint at the entrance to the city controlled by the Ukrainian military, but who told the same journalists to leave: shortly afterwards, they added, artillery shells would arrive from the Russian army. After a while they actually heard the sound of bombs.
Also, Kyiv regional police chief Andriy Nebytov warned on Tuesday that the Russians were still attacking Makariv. In a video shot in the city, Nebytov says the attacks came from the north, about two miles away. He also says that in Makariv “there is hardly anyone, there are no residents to take away”.
Also read: Because the war is not going the way Russia wanted
Because of this?
Today’s military situation in Ukraine shows us that so far the Ukrainian armed forces have managed to stop the Russian advance. The Russians have great difficulties in the north of the country, where they appear to have lost ground around Kyiv; despite the heavy bombing of the city, they have not yet succeeded in capturing Mariupol; and for the time being they have not reached Odessa, probably also because of the failed capture of Mykolayiv.
What will happen in the next few weeks is difficult to say. Several military analysts argue that Russia is learning from its mistakes and is reorganizing its forces on the ground to more effectively restart the offensive. Being left out is not an option, even though the difficulties the Russians have encountered so far have been varied, some complicated to overcome, and the Ukrainian resistance has been far tougher and more solid than any analyst anticipated in the early days of the war would have . The course of the conflict will also depend on the type of military aid that NATO sends to Ukraine and any political agreements between the parties involved, which, however, currently appear to be a very distant prospect.