I figured the 49ers would have a trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, which would be announced at the beginning of the new league year.
I figured there would be competition for Garoppolo’s services.
I figured the 49ers could get a couple of draft picks – say a fourth round this year and a conditional second round pick in 2023, who could be a first if he plays a certain number of snaps this year. season or his new team has won a certain number of games.
Yes, I believe things changed drastically when it was decided that Garoppolo would need surgery to repair a damaged capsule in his throwing shoulder and he would be unable to throw a soccer ball for about four months.
What else do I believe? I’m glad you asked.
I believe …
“Garoppolo wanted to avoid surgery altogether. The thumb injury was determined to heal without a procedure. But when, a month after the end of the season, the condition of the shoulder did not improve as expected, there was a call for surgery on March 8 and not risk being unavailable (or seriously compromised) for training camp and the start of the regular season.
— Garoppolo didn’t wait a month before surgery to deny the 49ers the opportunity to trade him. His #1 priority is to do everything possible to succeed in 2022 and beyond. Waiting in vain for the operation would do no one any good, especially him.
“Garoppolo’s shoulder will get back to normal in time.” The operation shouldn’t greatly affect his range of motion due to his ear throwing style.
There were legitimate reasons why the most talked about teams in need of quarterbacks decided to go the other direction.
Some were swinging over the fence, like the Denver Broncos with Russell Wilson and the Cleveland Browns with their deal to sell their souls for Deshawn Watson.
Indianapolis, in win mode now, saw an opportunity to acquire Matt Ryan, who will soon be 37 and didn’t have to give up much to land a four-time Pro Bowl player.
Washington acquired the talented and healthy Carson Wentz. Others, like New Orleans (James Winston), Pittsburgh (Mitchell Trubisky), and Atlanta (Marcus Mariota), have taken the less expensive route. In addition, these teams filled their needs with free agents so they didn’t have to give up draft picks.
– Before the operation, I was sure that Garoppolo would become a starting player. Now this seems unlikely. Carolina has Sam Darnold. Seattle has Drew Lock. I can’t imagine that these teams, in their current circumstances, would be willing to send a draft pick to the 49ers AND be willing to pay Garoppolo $25.5 million for the upcoming season.
— The best option for the 49ers is to sit back and wait for Garoppolo to recover and see if there’s a change in the league where he can become more attractive to the other team.
– The injury history was the stated reason why the 49ers decided last March 26 to make a deal with Miami to move up to 3rd overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. But that was not the only reason. Garoppolo, when healthy, is an average starting quarterback. They traded up to No. 3 to acquire a superstar.
— The 49ers believe that Trey Lance is capable of becoming a star. Do they really know? Of course not. Does anyone know if Lance will be a star, average player, or low level quarterback? No. We’re all just guessing until he’s on the field for at least a full season.
— Lance will take all the first team training pictures during the off-season program to get ready for training camp.
— Lance will take all the first team members to training camp to prepare for the regular season.
— Garoppolo publicly said goodbye two days after the 49ers lost the NFC Championship game to the Los Angeles Rams. When asked if there was anything that could be said for a fresh start elsewhere, he replied, “Absolutely.” Will he take a drastic pay cut to stay with the 49ers as a safety net? Doubtful.
— The 49ers recently announced their intentions with their quarterback depth chart when they fully guaranteed Nate Sudfeld’s $2 million salary. In their cap situation, the 49ers didn’t give the quarterback enough money to sit back as the #3 guy.
“If Garoppolo agrees to a pay cut, it would be wiser to go with him and just figure out how to handle the guaranteed money given to Sadfeld. If Garoppolo stays on the list this season and signs elsewhere as a free agent next year, the best the 49ers can hope for is a compensatory pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. This only happens if their net loss in free agency outweighs their net gain.
“Under his current contract, leaving Garoppolo doesn’t make much sense. There is a strong case to be made that Garoppolo means more to the squad – this season and beyond – by being outside the team. If the exchange is not possible, it makes sense to let him go after he has passed the physical test and all exchange options have been exhausted. So his non-guaranteed $25 million could be redirected to other majors like Deebo Samuel and Nick Boza, as well as salary increases in future seasons for the likes of George Kittle, Trent Williams, Fred Warner and Arik Armstead.
– If the 49ers had this $25 million cushion right now, it wouldn’t change their approach to free will. They spent on defense attorney Charvarius Ward. He was their prized commodity. The remaining slots on the roster will be filled by cheaper free agents and draft picks. There is no particular rush to create this additional replenishment room, because most of this money will go to players already on the team.
“Neither Garoppolo, nor John Lynch, nor Kyle Shanahan, nor Paraag Marate is to blame for this situation. Garoppolo was wounded. He needed an operation. The trade could not have taken place without a trading partner, and Garoppolo’s inability to participate in the off-season program likely prompted some teams to pass.
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— Yes, I believe Trey Lance will be the 49ers starting quarterback in 2022.
“And I still believe that Jimmy Garoppolo will play elsewhere.
“I just don’t believe the 49ers are getting anything in return at this point.
“But I also fully believe—after what we have already witnessed—that anything can happen at this moment.
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