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Purges have become increasingly common under Xi Jinping’s leadership
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- Author: Tessa Wong
- Scroll, BBC News
2 hours ago
Xi Jinping trusted them and supported them. Now they seem to have fallen from grace.
In recent months, several highranking Chinese officials have disappeared from public life.
This has sparked intense speculation about whether the Chinese president has initiated a purge, particularly of positions with ties to the military.
The latest person to appear to have fallen from grace is Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who has not been seen in public for several weeks.
Although his absence was not initially considered unusual, attention intensified when a senior American diplomat spoke publicly about his “disappearance.”
General Li, who oversaw arms purchases for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), was under investigation for purchasing military equipment, according to a report by Portal news agency.
His “disappearance” comes weeks after two senior officials from the Rocket Forces (the military branch that controls nuclear missiles in China) and a military judge were fired.
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General Li Shangfu disappeared from public life
Now new rumors are circulating that some commanders of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which controls the armed forces, are also under investigation.
There was almost no official explanation for these expulsions, other than “health reasons,” which gave rise to all sorts of speculation.
The leading theory is that Chinese authorities are cracking down on corruption in the People’s Liberation Army.
The armed forces are on high alert: in July, they made an unusual appeal to the population for information about corruption over the past five years.
According to BBC Monitoring, Xi appears to have begun a new round of inspections since April.
In recent months, the Chinese president has visited five military bases.
Little transparency in military spending
Corruption is a widespread problem in the Chinese military, especially since China began liberalizing its economy in the 1970s, says James Char, a researcher at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore who studies the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (PCC) and investigated by the army.
Every year, China spends more than 1 trillion yuan (around R$680 billion) on defense, with part of this amount used to purchase military equipment that cannot be fully disclosed for national security reasons.
This lack of transparency is exacerbated by China’s centralized oneparty system.
Unlike the public scrutiny that other countries’ militaries are subject to, in China they are monitored exclusively by the CCP, Char recalls.
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China increased military spending by more than 7% this year
And although Xi has managed to control corruption within the military and restore his reputation to some extent, “eradicating corruption is a Herculean, if not impossible, task” as it would require “systemic restructuring that the authoritarian regime would undertake.” In my opinion, the state is still reluctant to enforce it,” the expert adds.
“As long as the CCP government is unwilling to implement a proper legal system that is no longer under its own control, these purges will continue to take place.”
Paranoia?
But the “disappearances” can also be attributed to increasing paranoia within the Chinese government, in a context in which China’s relations with the United States are becoming increasingly complicated.
In July, a comprehensive counterespionage law came into force in the country, giving authorities more powers and leeway to investigate.
Shortly thereafter, China’s Ministry of State Security publicly called on citizens to help authorities combat espionage activities.
General Li’s disappearance follows that of Foreign Minister Qin Gang, whose dismissal in July also brought speculation to a fever pitch.
This week, American newspaper The Wall Street Journal reported that Qin was under investigation for an alleged extramarital affair that led to the birth of a child in the United States.
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Chinese Chancellor Qin Gang may have had an extramarital affair with an American woman
“Having an affair does not mean disqualifying elite circles [do Partido Comunista]“But having a relationship with someone suspected of having ties to foreign intelligence services and having a child with the passport of your main geopolitical rival, if not your enemy, could be,” says the China analyst Bill Bishop.
There is also speculation that Xi is acting under pressure from the party to “clean up” internally as China suffers from a postcoronavirus economic slowdown and rising youth unemployment.
In China’s political system, Xi is not only China’s president, but also its top military commander.
In some ways, the disappearances are a sign of instability in the Chinese leader’s leadership.
Xi’s leadership
Analysts also point out that both General Li and Qin were not only ministers, but also held senior positions as state councilors and were promoted by Xi.
Therefore, its sudden declines could damage the Chinese president’s reputation.
But not everyone thinks that way.
There are those who believe this could be a show of force by Xi.
Xi, the son of a purged CCP official, is famous for his public crackdown on corruption that doubles as a political purge to root out his enemies, analysts say.
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At around 225 billion US dollars, Beijing’s military budget is still not higher than that of the USA
Since Mao Zedong, no other Chinese leader has surpassed Xi in terms of repressive measures.
It is estimated that they affected thousands of commanders over the years and targeted both lowranking and highranking officers.
It all started with the “Tigers and Flies” campaign, launched shortly after Xi became president of China in 2013.
The armed forces were not spared and by 2017 more than 100 senior officers had been fired.
This year, state news agency Xinhua reported that the figure “far exceeded the number of generals killed in the wars that founded the new China.”
The most important question, however, revolves around the signal sent by the recent disappearances and their ultimate impact.
Accommodation costs
Analysts say this would create a climate of fear within the army and government.
And while this may be the desired outcome to secure justice, it would also have a demoralizing effect.
Years of systematically rooting out those who have fallen from grace and filling top positions with people loyal to Xi may mean that Xi has surrounded himself with men who will not stand up to him.
According to Char, the lack of dissenting voices could mean instability for the Chinese president’s leadership as it could negatively impact the country’s national security and foreign policy.
In fact, the disappearances occurred during a tense period in the Taiwan Strait, where China has sent more warships and military aircraft in recent weeks.
Any disruption in communications on foreign policy and defense diplomacy would be “particularly worrisome” as it “could lead to accidents and make escalation more difficult to manage,” said Ian Chong, a nonresident fellow at think tank Carnegie China.
But other experts argue that China’s military leadership is strong enough to withstand the replacement of some senior officials, stressing that the Asian giant has been careful to operate below the war threshold.
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China simulated precision strikes against key targets in Taiwan
And there are those who believe the disappearance is unlikely to have a longterm impact on the stability of Xi’s leadership.
None of the commanders attacked so far are part of his inner circle, says Neil Thomas, an expert on elite China policy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank based in New Delhi, India.
Most observers agree that these incidents highlight the lack of transparency in the Chinese system.
“This raises doubts about the continued implementation of the guidelines and the credibility of any promises or guarantees,” says Chong.