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LONDON – You are a royal eco-warrior who has waited 74 years to make his big speech to Parliament.
Then your Prime Minister spoils everything by throwing his anti-green agenda into the middle of it all.
Expect an awkward moment for King Charles III on Tuesday when he opens a new British parliamentary session by reading out Rishi Sunak’s legislative program for the year – including a major boost to the fossil fuel industry.
The King’s Speech – Charles’s first speech as head of state – is a staple of the British political calendar and a moment of great pomp with a monarch constitutionally obliged to remain above the fray.
But with a general election looming and Sunak struggling in the polls, this year’s speech presents the prime minister with an irresistible opportunity to outline stark differences with the opposition Labor Party and show his dejected Conservative MPs that he has a plan to turn things around.
That means Charles – who has spent a lifetime warning about climate change – will have to formally announce the Prime Minister’s highly politicized pledge to award new North Sea oil and gas exploration licenses every year.
Tory aides see an opportunity to take a swipe at Labor – which has vowed to oppose new oil and gas exploration – on energy security grounds and portray the opposition party as an anti-jobs party.
“This is a good policy that will be very political and highlights our dividing lines with Labor,” said a government official who was closely involved in the speech and spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Others are prepared for at least a little side-eye from the sovereign, who travels to the United Nations COP28 climate conference later this month.
“I think if he’s reading something he doesn’t like – even if he thinks it’s completely right that he’s reading it – there’s a good chance he’s going to kind of raise an eyebrow or cough a little bit or something like that. “There’s quite a pause high,” former Labor shadow chancellor Ed Balls said last week.
Diplomatic difficulties
Although the King’s Speech was written by the government of the day, tradition dictates that it is the monarch who reads it, wearing a crown and sitting on a golden throne in the House of Lords.
On Tuesday, King Charles will read the speech for the first time as monarch after his mother died last September. Queen Elizabeth II’s political views were not publicly known; she was just 25 when she took on the role.
Queen Elizabeth II’s political views were not publicly known Pool photo by Suzanne Plunkett/AFP via Getty Images
However, her son campaigned on environmental issues for many years before ascending to the throne, publicly voicing his climate concerns as early as the 1970s.
But his new role as monarch means that he must now remain completely neutral on political issues.
Tessa Khan, chief executive of Uplift, a campaign group campaigning for an end to fossil fuel use, believes the speech could put the king in a “diplomatically difficult position” at COP28, where the phase-out of carbon-intensive fuels “is looming “. a real focal point.”
Alastair Bruce, a royal commentator who will play a ceremonial role at the occasion, said on POLITICO’s “Politics at Jack and Sam’s” podcast that people would undoubtedly “read the irony” if the speech contained bills that contradict it to Charles’ plans. previously expressed views.
But he insisted that the king would do his duty and “try to speak in a flat voice as he delivers whatever is required of him.”
Sunak’s spokesman said on Monday that he was not concerned about the king’s reaction to the speech and that it reflected “a long-standing process”. He stressed that ministers still intend to meet their target of reducing net carbon emissions to zero by 2050, but will do so in a “pragmatic” way that does not burden families.
Let’s get political
However, the monarchical murmurings may be the least of Sunak’s worries.
The prime minister has little time left to defy the polls and make a compelling case for why the British public should give his Conservatives a fifth term. The next general election must take place before the end of January 2025.
Sunak also has limited financial flexibility – meaning his policies have to be both popular and cheap.
Plans to abolish all legal tobacco sales in England, introduce proposed new football regulations and reform leasehold ownership – all expected in Tuesday’s speech – are relatively free. Populist penal and punitive laws are also expected to play a role.
But Tory MPs and parliamentary candidates – whose careers are now at stake – fear the Sunak government is only tinkering with its policy agenda at the margins.
“We really need something hard-hitting to shout about on the doorstep,” said a Tory candidate in a key target seat who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Rishi Sunak poses with a green briefcase similar to the red budget box before opening Finance Day at the UN climate summit COP26 in Glasgow on November 3, 2021 | Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images
A minister loyal to Sunak noted that the policy was “popular” but that “the problem is that there is no real thread that ties it together that we can sell to voters.”
James Frayne, a former Tory adviser who now runs polling and research agency Public First, is also skeptical that Sunak will resonate with the public.
“[Last month’s] “The convention was very, very strange in that the party seemed to think that everything was going well, but all they did was address the public with complete irrelevance,” he said. “They barely talked about things like cost of living, health care, crime — the things that people obsess about.”
“Hostages of Happiness”
Against this backdrop, the government’s failings – the things King Charles doesn’t say on Tuesday – will also be important.
MPs have been told that a long-promised ban on “conversion therapy” – the attempt to change people’s sexual orientation or gender identity – will now no longer be adopted in the form of a bill but will only be subject to pre-legislative review.
While this could avoid a showdown in Parliament, it sparked some backlash from senior Conservatives, with former minister Dehenna Davison calling the delay “shameful”.
Against this backdrop, the government’s failings – the things King Charles won’t say on Tuesday – will also be important | Pool photo by Jonathan Brady/AFP via Getty Images
However, Sunak has little time for parliamentary drama.
“You don’t want too many parliamentary moments because a lot of MPs in marginal seats want to stay away from the election campaign in Westminster,” said former cabinet minister Robert Buckland.
If Sunak calls a snap election in the spring rather than waiting until later in the year, many of the proposed laws would have to be scrapped anyway, a Downing Street adviser – who is not authorized to speak publicly – noted.
Despite the shaky polls, Tory MPs and advisers insist they are not yet panicking.
The same British government official quoted above sees Tuesday’s speech as just one of many key moments for the rest of 2023. It also follows the Autumn Statement – a fiscal policy moment in which Sunak’s team can make key tax and government spending decisions – a ministerial reshuffle; and a hugely important Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the government’s flagship asylum policy.
Buckland says government opening up is not traditionally “a game-changer” – but he expects it will be part of a cumulative shift to a steadier ship under Sunak.
King Charles, then Prince of Wales, read the Queen’s Speech in 2022 due to his mother’s health problems | Pool photo by Arthur Edwards via Getty Images
“The best he can hope for is that this is the King’s speech, that it doesn’t hinder that and doesn’t produce too many contradictory messages or hostages of fate that he wants in a year that he wants the People concentrate, can hardly afford to make a choice [between him and the opposition]said Buckland.
On Tuesday, an expressionless King Charles could help him do just that.
Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting