Make no mistake, the Chinese Communist Party hates democracy and violates human rights.
But the leadership in Beijing looks so awful from Vladimir PutinThe reckless attack on Ukraine, which now seems to be trying to stop it.
We are witnessing an extraordinary geopolitical change China emerge as a possible arbiter of European security.
Surprisingly, China abstained on Friday The united nations Voting Security Council condemns Russia.
He reiterated that action yesterday, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi separately offering his country’s services to mediate the ceasefire.
China is “extremely concerned about the damage to civilians,” he said. Few could have foreseen this.
As China’s relations with the West have frozen in recent years, the Russian regime has forged a network of military, economic and financial ties to the communist dictatorship in Beijing.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last month
It threatens
In fact, when the Winter Olympics opened in the Chinese capital last month, the two nations issued a joint statement condemning NATO enlargement.
Even in the days before Putin’s invasion, China accused the United States of being “the culprit”, accusing it of “increasing tensions, creating panic and even increasing the possibility of war.”
The Foreign Ministry in Beijing declined to say that the invasion was a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. China has also criticized Western sanctions against Russia.
But, quickly and shockingly, his policy changed. Behind the scenes, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is reportedly angry with the Russian president.
The strong man from Beijing may have won a blitzkrieg victory, but not the cost and risks of a protracted war that seems increasingly likely.
And why? To put it bluntly, China values stability – and Putin is threatening that. Nothing is more important to China’s nominally communist leaders than the continued growth of their giant capitalist economy.
Only by constantly raising the living standards of its 1.4 billion people can the social and regional tensions that plague this vast nation – and threaten to stifle the regime’s power – be alleviated.
Prosperity is at the heart of Xi’s plan to make China the world’s most powerful country by the middle of the century.
A long war in Ukraine would threaten this. This will introduce new risks to the international financial system, cool world trade and already mean rising energy, food and fertilizer prices – all vital resources that China largely imports.
Putin also violated taboos sacred to China. The Beijing regime hates any idea of outside interference in the nation’s internal affairs.
She is neurotic about what she calls “separatism” because she knows that his own claims to territories like Tibet and Taiwan’s self-governing island democracy, for example, are unstable.
Focused on territorial integrity, China has looked down on Russia’s first attack on Ukraine in 2014. It has never acknowledged the Kremlin’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
It also did not recognize the Russian-backed breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine – Donetsk and Luhansk.
Another reason for anger at Putin is that China’s rise depends on the West’s weakness. While we in the democratic world are divided and distracted, Beijing can repress its own people while quietly building its influence abroad.
Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod comes out with other ambassadors and diplomats, while a pre-recorded video message from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (on screen) is released at the 49th session of the UN Human Rights Council at UN headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, on Tuesday
But Putin’s invasion of Ukraine woke us up. NATO is rejuvenated, the European Union is united, broken transatlantic relations have been repaired.
Even in a slow, unfortunate way, Germany last week pledged to increase defense spending to more than 2 percent of GDP after years of refusing to meet its commitment to NATO.
Shocked and embarrassed by the bloodbath in Ukraine, Westerners now realize that freedom is not free: its costs include financial sacrifices and military risks. This new mood of unity and determination is creating major problems for mainland China.
Once united behind Ukraine, Western public opinion and decision-makers could see Taiwan as another democracy that is similar.
And next time, Westerners will be much less inclined to accept any attempt by a big dictatorship to stifle a small neighbor.
Significantly, Taiwan hastened to get into the international car in support of Ukraine.
President Cai Ying-wen and two other leaders have donated a monthly salary to support humanitarian aid there – they acknowledge what can be gained.
The lifelong ruler of China sees other dangers. And perhaps he even perceives Putin’s plight more clearly than the Russian tyrant.
If Ukraine becomes a Syrian-style swamp, humanitarian and security consequences will plague Europe and the world for a decade.
China’s dreams of new global infrastructure connections from east to west will be shattered.
Terrifying
Firefighter walks amid damage to building entrance after shelling by Russian forces in Kharkiv
Alternatively, a failed war in Ukraine could lead to Putin’s downfall. And what can we say, a new leader will not find the West a better long-term partner than China.
What is even worse for China is if Putin is pushed into a corner and tries to escape by escalation.
Economic countermeasures such as cutting off gas supplies to Europe would do even more damage to the world economy.
But the biggest nightmare is that Putin is becoming nuclear – perhaps testing low-power weapons in hopes of scaring his critics.
Such a horrific gambit could indeed deter the West from trying to stifle Russia. But that would be a catastrophic shock to global trust and stability – and would end Xi’s dream of China’s peaceful rise.
In fact, perhaps Chinese cyber-detectors have the best chance of preventing such an insanely irresponsible move.
Despite superficial friendly ties, China is spying hard on Russia, a country that the extremely cautious nation sees as poorly managed and reckless.
The Kremlin’s nuclear command structure and communications are a major target for all foreign intelligence agencies.
It is not entirely fantastic to imagine that Western and Chinese agencies are joining forces to prevent the fickle Russian leader from provoking a nuclear holocaust.
It hurts
The scene of a fire in the building of the Faculty of Economics of the Kharkov National University “Karazin”, which was allegedly affected by the recent shelling on Wednesday
Damage to the entrance to the building after the shelling of Constitution Square in Kharkov by Russian forces
All this explains why China is now so eager to mediate a ceasefire. But what would such a deal involve?
Russia’s ragged forces would be rocked home to be replaced by UN peacekeepers – no doubt including a large contingent from China.
Regions occupied by Russia will come under international administration pending referendums on their future status: stay in Ukraine or join Russia.
For its part, Ukraine may need to halt its aspirations for NATO while receiving a promise of swift and unhindered EU accession.
Although painful, such conditions offer the best long-term perspective for peace and security. And they would be infinitely preferable to the ongoing destruction of the country.
The West, spared by a colossal humanitarian catastrophe, could dedicate its efforts to recovery – thus ensuring that in the medium term Ukraine will become a much more attractive country than Russia for its citizens.
That result would be exactly what Putin wants to avoid. But it would be difficult for him to resist wringing his hands from Beijing.
China is now the only real lifeline for Russia: its most important supplier, customer and financial intermediary.
For a crippled Russian economy, even light sanctions from the East would be devastating.
The biggest winner of all this would be China. Only recently has it turned to international domination because of its human rights and harassment.
A debut at the top of world diplomacy is now imminent.
And we in the West? Our naivety and greed have already handed over a peaceful and friendly Ukraine to Putin’s meat grinder.
What a bitter irony if we also brought China’s power to its doorstep.