1 of 2 Beijing says birth rate has fallen to 6.39 per 1,000 people Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC Beijing says birth rate has fallen to 6.39 per 1,000 people Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC
Data published this Wednesday (17) showed that at the end of 2023 a population of 1.409 billion people will be counted a decrease of 2.08 million compared to 2022.
But experts say so Autumn was already expectedgiven the country's growing urban class and recordlow birth rate.
Beijing said on Wednesday that the birth rate fell to 6.39 per 1,000 people, in line with other East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea.
China's population has shrunk for the second year in a row
The country's birth rates have been falling for decades after the controversial onechild policy was introduced in the 1980s to control the overpopulation at the time.
The government suspended the policy in 2015 to curb population decline, while also introducing a range of incentives such as subsidies and payments to encourage people to start families.
In 2021, the limit was further relaxed to allow couples to have up to three children.
But the measures have had little impact as young people in modern cities say factors such as the cost of living and career priorities are preventing them from having children after three years of Covid19.
“My husband and I want to have a child, but we can't afford it at the moment,” said Wang Chengyi, a 31yearold woman from Beijing.
She told the BBC that she and her partner would need to save money for another three years to cover the costs of having a child especially taking into account school costs.
“I want to get pregnant while I'm young because it's better for my health. However, I don't have enough money at the moment, so I have to postpone it. “It’s a shame and sometimes I panic because of it.” She says.
2 of 2 Graphic shows birth rate in China Photo: BBC Graphic shows birth rate in China Photo: BBC
Experts point out that the pandemic is accelerating the decline in new births. But they believe underlying economic problems are a more important factor.
On social media, netizens also pointed to the cost of living as a factor in the trend.
“If you allow people to live more easily and safely, there will naturally be more people who want children,” one user wrote in a wellliked comment on Weibo, one of the country’s most popular social networks.
China is following the path of other countries that have deindustrialized rapidly, experts say, although the pace of change has been faster.
“That's no surprise. They have one of the lowest death rates in the world, so that's exactly what happens: the population stops growing and starts shrinking,” says Professor Stuart GietelBasten, a population policy expert at the University of Science and Technology of Hong Kong.
“It's sort of closed now…this is only the second year in this new era of population stagnation or decline for China.”
China's economic woes peaked in 2023 as the country grappled with a widespread housing crisis, falling consumer spending and record youth unemployment as a fallout from the pandemic.
Annual data released this Wednesday confirmed the difficulties, showing the economy growing at one of the slowest rates in more than three decades.
According to the publications, China's GDP grew by 5.2%, reaching 126 billion yuan (R$87.3 billion).
The data points to the weakest performance of the Chinese economy since 1990 excluding the pandemic years.
Also according to data released by Beijing, the unemployment rate of young people was 14.1% in December 2023. That index had reached 21.3% in June but fell after China temporarily suspended the release of monthly figures.
And the latest population data further heightens concerns about the economy, as China has long relied on older workers as the main driver of its economy.
The country is facing increasing pressure on its health and pension systems as the number of retirees grows a group expected to grow by up to 60% to 400 million people by 2035.
But experts say the country has the time and resources to manage the transition of its workforce.
“China is no different from other countries that have deindustrialized and moved into the service sector. The population is becoming more educated, more qualified and healthier and wants to take other jobs instead of working in factories or construction,” says GietelBasten.
“The government is aware of this and has been planning for this for the last decade, so it is expected to continue in this direction.”
According to the United Nations, China, once the world's most populous country, was overtaken by India last year. India's population today is 1.42 billion people.