A higher price of diesel than petrol, a reality since the start of the war in Ukraine and set to continue in 2023 with the European embargo on refined products from Russia from February.
With the state and TotalEnergies fuel rebates ending at midnight on December 31, how will prices at the pump fare in 2023?
Difficult to say given the international context and a currently relatively low price for a barrel of crude oil, which could well rise, especially with the expected recovery in economic activity in China. Conversely, an economic slowdown could lower the price of black gold.
Diesel more expensive than petrol since March 2022
Another question: how long will diesel be more expensive than petrol at filling stations? An abnormal situation that we have finally gotten used to since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
As can be seen from the chart below, diesel has actually been more expensive than petrol since early March 2022, with the exception of a brief period from late May to early June.
“I don’t think diesel will return under petrol in the short term. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the markets have assumed that we will run out of this fuel and the price will therefore go up,” summarizes Francis Pousse, President of the Petrol Stations and New Energies Division of the Mobilianer trade association.
However, this remains an unusual situation: historically, diesel, which remains the most consumed fuel in France, benefits in particular from more favorable taxation. Taxes (TVE, TICPE and VAT on the TICPE) actually account for almost 60% of the price of a liter of unleaded 95 versus 45% for diesel.
Russian diesel embargo in February
A political decision by Europe could also help keep the price of diesel higher than petrol. After the EU embargo on Russian oil since the beginning of December, imports of Russian diesel will be blocked from February 5, 2023.
Enough to increase the risk of a “mini oil shock”, explained to us in October Patrice Geoffron, director of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Natural Resources (CGEMP), who, even at 2.50, expected a diesel fuel above 2 euros per liter per liters, with the end of discounts and a high price of oil.
However, the long-awaited import ban on Russian diesel, which accounted for no less than 30% of French consumption in 2021, has been anticipated by dealers, eliminating any risk of supply disruptions.
“European countries did not wait until the end of January to find other suppliers,” emphasizes Francis Pousse.
For example, diesel fuel coming from the Gulf States “has higher transport costs, which will also help to increase the price at the pump”.