1656542417 Why is it hotter in Scandinavia than in Spain right

Why is it hotter in Scandinavia than in Spain right now?

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Why is it hotter in Scandinavia than in Spain right

“The world is upside down!” sums up the veteran meteorologist Francisco Martín, coordinator of the specialist magazine RAM. In Finland, the average maximum temperatures at this time of the year are around 19°-21°, but the thermometers mark more than 30° and 32° from June 25th, ie between 10° and 12° above what is normal in Spain 4,000 kilometers south, especially in the north and west, enjoys milder temperatures for more than a week for this time of year, with values ​​between 5° and 10° lower than usual. Why is that?

The reason is that Finland plunged into a strong and early heat wave with a gigantic radius of action: the fire claw goes from Algeria ―49°― and Tunisia to Italy ―40°―, Greece and the Balkans and up through Central and Eastern Europe ―Switzerland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and East Germany― to the Nordic countries and the Arctic, where 24 records are set for the highest Temperatures were recorded in June in the Norwegian zone ―including 32.5° at the northernmost point of continental Europe, Tana Bru― and where the Russian city of Norilsk has reached its maximum of the whole year with 32°. The haze that accompanies the warm air mass reaches Germany and Poland. On the other hand, Spain is hit by a nadir or tongue of cold air.

“It’s a question of atmospheric circulation,” explains Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). “Europe lies between two low-pressure systems, one in the Atlantic, west of the British Isles, and another in the Black Sea. Between the two is high pressure: an anticyclone ridge, or tongue of warm air coming from low latitudes and stretching north. This ridge stabilizes the atmosphere and at latitudes like Scandinavia, the night is very short. A final factor is that between the two lows a warm southerly wind is channeled which, having traveled through Europe, arrives on this peninsula very superheated.” Spain is the flip side of the same coin. “The Atlantic low-pressure area is blowing fresh air and winds from the west and north-west onto the Iberian Peninsula,” which moderates temperatures.

But how extraordinary is the situation? The EFI index (Extreme Forecast Index), which quantifies the rarity of an extreme phenomenon, gives very high values ​​for the central and eastern strip of Europe, with temperatures reached that are in the 98th percentile and 99%. “This heat wave is unusually severe, but not entirely unprecedented. We had some even more intense ones in June, for example last year. Locally, of course, the highest June temperatures since records began were experienced,” confirms Mika Rantanen from the Research Unit on Climate Change Impacts of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The latest stations to break their June heat record became pori, on the west coast, and the northernmost station, Utsjoki Nuorgam, both at 32.9°. And the minima are also intense: Tropical nights were recorded on the coast and near lakes, in which the thermometer did not fall below 20°.

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And what relation can it have to climate change? “The link between heatwaves and climate change is well established in climate science, so we can say that climate change, while not causing them, is making the situation worse,” explains Rantanen, who estimates that “temperatures are probably a degree or two higher in comparison to a situation without climate change.”

polar ray

“Climate change is clearly making heatwaves earlier, more frequent, and more intense,” agrees Del Campo, who also points out that what’s behind the current situation is what’s known as the jet stream, or polar jet, which usually circulates in a very linear fashion from west to east, along with strong winds and is now more wavy . “The part of the wave that stays embedded in polar air has lower temperatures – like in Spain – while they shoot up on the crest – the entire extended area of ​​the wave,” he explains. This more tortuous flow means that “cold and warm situations are more frequent and persistent, and that the ridge reaches such high latitudes” and while “there is greater uncertainty, there are studies to suggest that global warming is what changing traffic patterns”. . In addition, global warming means that “the air masses are getting warmer and since the average temperatures are also higher, the extremes are also higher”.

These changes in the jet stream are also highlighted by AEMET meteorologist and researcher Juan Jesús González Alemán, who explains that it “moves more and more from zones to the south, from south to north or from north to south” and that there are such “indications suggesting that the cause of the more frequent and intense southerly movements is climate change.” Other studies also link it to Arctic melting, although there are some uncertainties. González reminds that climate change projections indicate that high and polar latitudes are “warming more than low latitudes”, so heat waves there would be increasingly frequent and severe compared to its climate.

Francisco Martín adds that the same pattern that explains what is happening in Finland and Spain is repeated in Russia, where there are enormous cold anomalies, and in the heatwaves that are hitting China and Japan today, where they have it “six days of hell in a row” and they experienced the hottest day of June in their history with 40.2 °. “One of the theories of anthropogenic global warming is that it favors jets with more meanders, more gain, and quasi-stationary shape, which is exactly what’s happening,” Martín reiterates.

And what is life like for a Finn in typical Spanish temperatures? “Finns have not adapted well to this heat. If the situation persists, there may be health implications, especially for the elderly,” fears the Finnish researcher, who points out that the wave in his country “will end by Monday at the latest and temperatures will be back to normal next week”. It will have been 10 days at 30°.

“Of course we love hot weather as summer is usually very short here, but in recent years we have had severe heat waves that worry Finns,” adds Rantanen. “Yes, in the Nordic countries they are scared and thinking about how to adapt to climate change because a few years ago 30° was a rarity and now they’ve watched her for four consecutive summers and for several days,” confirms Daniel Santos Muñoz from the Danish Meteorological Institute. Now the Scandinavians dream of air conditioning and “many citizens are thinking about it or are already doing what was previously unthinkable in countries with very mild and short summers”. “Their homes are designed to retain heat, not to resist it,” explains Santos, who says activities and even jobs are shutting down because the buildings aren’t adapting either.

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