A deal under which Somaliland agreed to lease a Red Sea naval port to Ethiopia has sparked outrage in Somalia. Somaliland is a self-governing breakaway state that, according to Somalia, is part of its own northern territory.
Mogadishu recalled its ambassador from Ethiopia on Tuesday to hold “consultations” on the issue, saying the port deal signed a day earlier would raise tensions and threaten stability in the wider Horn of Africa region.
Sentiment regarding the port agreement is already high. Somalis took to the streets in Mogadishu on Wednesday to protest against the deal.
What is it about?
The agreement, signed in Addis Ababa by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi, grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease on a naval base with access to Somalia's Berbera port for commercial maritime operations.
In return, Ethiopia says it will provide an “in-depth assessment” of Somaliland's bid for official recognition as an independent state – the first time another country has offered this. Somaliland will also receive a stake in national airline Ethiopia, according to a statement from the Ethiopian government, although details of this part of the agreement, particularly any additional cash payments, are scarce.
In a separate statement published on It added that it would also allow both parties to deepen ties between economic and political sectors.
prime minister @AbiyAhmedAli and Somaliland President Muse Bihe Abdi signed a historic memorandum of understanding in Addis Ababa.#PMOEthiopia pic.twitter.com/6lPlCoepGr
— Prime Minister's Office – Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) January 1, 2024
The agreement was long awaited. In 2019, Ethiopia bought a 19 percent stake in the port of Berbera, with Somaliland retaining 30 percent and Dubai company and port manager DP World holding 51 percent. In return for funding approximately $442 million in ongoing port modernization, DP World will manage the port for 30 years. The UAE Group's investment in Berbera has already sparked controversy in Somalia, with parliament voting to nullify the deal in 2018. This action had little impact on stopping the project.
The port will open Ethiopia to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, giving it access to Europe. Details about when exactly the lease will come into effect are unclear.
Why is Somalia upset about this deal?
Somalia and Somaliland have a long and bitter history, with Mogadishu considering the self-governing region of four million people as part of its own territory.
Somaliland was ruled by the British as a protectorate until 1960 and briefly gained independence before merging with Somalia to form a republic.
The region broke away from Somalia in 1991 after the country fought a largely ethnic war of independence. These wounds are still healing for Somali families on both sides of the border.
Since then, Somaliland has operated autonomously, albeit with little revenue and without access to international trade or financing. Somaliland's capital Hargeisa prints its own passports, issues the Somaliland shilling and holds elections. Some experts consider the region to be one of the most “stable” de facto states in the world.
But Mogadishu views any international recognition of Somaliland as an attack on Somalia's sovereignty. The Somali government described the port deal with Addis Ababa as “outrageous” and “unauthorized.”
“The Federal Government of Somalia considers this a hostile move that… represents a blatant violation and encroachment on the independence, sovereignty and territorial independence of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” said a government statement released on Tuesday.
We strongly condemn and strongly reject the outrageous actions of the Ethiopian FG in signing an unauthorized Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland (the Northern Regions of Somalia) in Addis Ababa on January 1, 2024. pic.twitter.com/84ngjhxvK9
— Permanent Secretariat for Foreign Affairs🇸🇴 (@PSMOFA) January 3, 2024
“We will not stand idly by while our sovereignty is threatened,” President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud told parliament on Tuesday.
The agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia came just days after Mogadishu and Hargeisa agreed to resume Djibouti-led mediation in a bid to get both parties to resolve their deep-rooted issues. Several such rounds of talks in the past have not borne fruit.
With this latest development, those talks could stall again, Moustafa Ahmad, an independent researcher based in Hargeisa, told Al Jazeera. “Both sides shared different interpretations of what the talks entailed,” Ahmad said. “Mogadishu said it was about reunification and Somaliland said it wanted to decide its fate as an independent state. It was doomed to fail, but this current crisis has only accelerated its collapse.”
Why does Ethiopia want access to the sea?
Ethiopia is one of Africa's most populous countries with 120 million people, but its economy is constrained by lack of access to the sea.
The East African country was cut off from the Gulf of Aden after Eritrea seceded in a three-decade war in 1993, taking the country's entire former coastline with it.
Since then, Ethiopia has relied primarily on the smaller Djibouti for its port operations. The Djibouti port handles more than 95 percent of Ethiopian inbound and outbound cargo. Addis Ababa has even managed to operate a shipping line from the port in Djibouti.
On October 13, Abiy told parliament that the sea was crucial to Ethiopia's survival.
“Ethiopia is an island surrounded by water, but a land that is thirsty,” he said. “The Red Sea and the Nile will define Ethiopia. They are linked to Ethiopia and will be the foundations that will either advance Ethiopia’s development or bring about its downfall.”
His statement sparked concern across East Africa. Analysts wondered whether he was referring to a possible military invasion by Ethiopia's neighbors in a region that has already seen several political crises and climate change-related events such as drought. But Addis Ababa later clarified that the prime minister was not referring to any kind of military action against its neighbors.
Still, regional impacts may be unavoidable as countries weigh which side to support in this latest dispute, said Ahmad, the researcher. Ethiopia is participating in a United Nations peacekeeping mission in Somalia and that agreement could be at risk. Internally, however, the dispute could score points for Ethiopia's beleaguered government, said Ahmad.
“It will give Abiy the opportunity to restore his unpopular image in the country, marred by his wars in the Tigray region, the violent insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromo regions, and the economic regression the country has faced in recent years. “Access to the sea has been presented as an existential problem to Ethiopian leaders over the years, and with this new deal it will give Abiy domestic political advantages.”
Somali people march against the port agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland at Yariisow Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia on January 3, 2024 [Feisal Omar/Reuters]
Is there a risk of armed conflict?
Given the tense and provocative rhetoric, there are fears that there could be a prolonged diplomatic rift between Ethiopia and Somalia. However, there was no talk of an armed conflict on either side.
There is a history of territorial conflict between the two. In 1977, Somalia invaded Ogaden, a disputed border area that is now part of Ethiopia. Supported by the Soviet Union and Cuba, which sought a cross-continental socialist alliance, Ethiopia responded and ultimately won the war. The decimation and defeat of the Somali army and the eventual uprising it sparked internally are linked to Somaliland's secession from Somalia.
At the moment Somalia is not an opponent for Ethiopia. Somalia has a 20,000-strong army, while Ethiopia has more than 130,000 soldiers.
Both countries are already confronted with great instability domestically. Mogadishu is fighting a long war with the armed group al-Shabab. Ethiopia is struggling with the consequences of the Tigray war and a new conflict in the Amhara region.
An all-out war could also significantly hamper operations by the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia, which includes thousands of Ethiopian soldiers who would likely be withdrawn.
How did the world react?
Several countries and international organizations have intervened in the dispute, most of them supporting Somalia. The African Union, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United States issued statements this week calling on Ethiopia to respect Mogadishu's sovereignty.
This also applies to the European Union, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Arab League. In a statement on
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African trade bloc, refused to take sides on Wednesday and instead called on all parties to resolve the issue amicably. Mogadishu criticized this reaction, saying it was not an appropriate condemnation.
What next?
Despite the controversy and concerns about rising tensions, Somalilanders celebrated in the streets on Monday after the port deal was announced. Overall, they are excited about the prospect of their region's recognition by other countries and the economic opportunities they believe await them outside Mogadishu's sphere of influence.
“There is cautious optimism in Somaliland at the moment,” said analyst Ahmad. “People are pleased that Somaliland’s quest for international recognition is finally becoming a reality, but at the same time they are cautious about the uncertainties that lie ahead, including how regional and global powers will support or oppose recognition.”
All eyes are now on Somalia to see how it will challenge this agreement. So far, Mogadishu has not outlined any clear legal action it intends to take, other than stating that leasing the port in Somaliland is illegal.
Instead, it has cut diplomatic ties with Ethiopia and pressured countries in official phone calls to make statements opposing the port deal. It is also urging regional bodies such as IGAD to scrap the deal.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia doubled down on its pressure on Wednesday with a lengthy statement claiming no laws were broken in the signing of the port deal. The statement expressed sympathy for Somaliland's plight and noted that the region has not been recognized as a nation, although Addis Ababa and other countries maintain consular relations with Hargeisa.
The agreement “enables Somaliland to receive the kind of support and partnership it cannot receive from any other country, and also responds to its long-standing demands,” the statement said.