Why is the number of cases on the rise in Hong Kong?

So far very little affected by Covid-19, Hong Kong is registering record deaths and infections with the advent of Omicron.

In less than three months since the introduction of the Omicron variant, more than 600,000 people have tested positive in Hong Kong, compared to 12,000 in the first two years of the pandemic. According to the University of Hong Kong’s calculations released on Monday, 3.6 million people would actually be infected, nearly half the population, and that figure could rise to 4.5 million.

The territory, which has followed a Covid Zero strategy since the beginning of the pandemic, is currently experiencing one of the highest death rates in developed countries, with particularly high death rates in nursing homes.

Hong Kong has recorded 4,279 Covid-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic, including at least 4,066 since December 31, 2021. According to the latest report on 14 March. Since January, older people living in nursing homes have accounted for nearly 60% of coronavirus-related deaths.

Very low immunity.

For microbiologist Siddharth Sridhar, this, unfortunately, did not come as a surprise. On Twitter, he mentioned the low vaccination rate. in the elderly and very low herd immunity in an area so far largely unaffected by the virus. To date, less than 50% of people aged 70 have received two doses of the vaccine, and only 32% of people over 80.

“About 90% of people who died in the fifth wave did not receive two doses of the vaccine,” the Hong Kong government wrote. It “strongly recommends that eligible people (especially those under the age of 12 and those aged 60 and over) get vaccinated as soon as possible.”

Death rate by age group and vaccination status of 3,231 people who died from Covid-19 in Hong Kong © Government of Hong Kong

In countries implementing the Zero Covid strategy, “it would be necessary to carry out a vaccination policy in parallel to protect the population, because the virus did not circulate, there were no infections”, and therefore weak natural immunity, epidemiologist Arnaud Fontane emphasized on France Inter on Monday .

“It did very well in Australia, New Zealand where they had a surge in cases, but not severe cases. we have never seen in Europe,” he explains.

David, a geriatrician with about 60 nursing homes, told AFP that Hong Kong’s low number of Covid-19 deaths during the first two years contributed to a “low level of vigilance” among elderly families. According to him, many do not want to be vaccinated, fearing side effects that have been stronger than fear of an almost non-existent disease for two years now.

Less effective vaccines?

According to Arno Fontane, this significant increase in the incidence is also associated with “not very effective vaccines.”

The spread of the virus is also exacerbated by the fact that of the 31% of older Hong Kongers who received at least one dose of the vaccine, more than two-thirds received Sinovac, a Chinese-made vaccine that offers “minor protection from Omicron,” according to the Financial Times. The rest had the BioNTech vaccine, the most effective currently on the market.

Those who were vaccinated with Sinovac did not have enough antibodies to fight Covid-19, according to a study by the University of Hong Kong last December of about twenty people. Preliminary results from the Sinovac group show that at two doses, the effectiveness of its vaccine against the Omicron variant is only 35%, while it would be much higher with a booster dose. In comparison, the effectiveness of the third dose of the Pfizer vaccine is estimated at 70 to 75% on Omicron.

Hospital congestion

Siddharth Sridhar is also pointing the finger at this disastrous fifth wave of “overburdened medical personnel.” Hong Kong’s hospitals are indeed overcrowded: bodies are piling up, elderly patients are desperately waiting to be treated in makeshift treatment rooms, even outdoors. Nursing homes, which are poorly equipped and severely understaffed, are particularly affected.

These homes “were not designed or equipped to (place people) in quarantine… we are at an impasse,” lamented Cheng Ching-fat, general secretary of the Nursing Home Workers Union, in an interview with AFP. “Forcing older people to return to nursing homes is like sending them to die.”

Last Wednesday, chief executive Carrie Lam announced that all nursing home residents will receive at least one dose of the vaccine within two weeks. But for trade unionist Cheng Ching-fat, it’s coming “too late” and “they can’t prevent the death of the elderly.”

Salome Vincendon, BFMTV journalist