After months of deadlock and tensions with members of the Atlantic Alliance, Ankara is close to lifting its veto on Sweden's NATO membership. However, as a strategic actor in the organization, Turkey has many differences from its partners.
Published on: December 27, 2023 – 7:51 p.m
7 mins
The tension that had lasted 19 months is lifted. The Turkish Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee gave the green light for Sweden to join NATO on Wednesday, December 27th. This text must soon be ratified by the General Assembly. Turkey was the last member of the Atlantic Alliance with Hungary to block Sweden's entry into NATO.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to lift his veto in exchange for a possible American commitment to supplying F-16 aircraft to Turkey. The Turkish head of state had a telephone conversation with his American counterpart Joe Biden in mid-December.
The latter is clearly “ready to make a move towards Turkey and deliver these aircraft and the F-16 modernization kits that the Turkish army already has, in return for the Turks’ consent to Sweden’s NATO accession.” The However, the sale must be approved by the American Congress, where the balance of power is fluctuating, explains Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris). . It’s a complex game where no one knows the outcome.”
Historical conflicts between Ankara and Athens
Sweden applied at the same time as neighboring Finland, which was admitted in April after Russia's invasion of Ukraine began. Turkey's veto of these Scandinavian countries joining NATO has increased tensions between Ankara and the Atlantic Alliance.
Also read Sweden's NATO membership: What has Erdogan achieved?
Since the beginning of the accession process, Turkey has objected to Stockholm's alleged leniency towards certain Kurdish groups considered terrorist by Ankara, such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK in Turkish). But Sweden's position has evolved in recent months. “The country began to impose sanctions on a certain number of PKK activists or even send some back to Turkey,” explains Aurélien Denizeau, doctor of political science at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations and researcher in international relations.
This is not the only point of contention between Turkey and NATO. The old historical disputes between Ankara and Athens, both members of the Atlantic Alliance, are also leading to tensions within the organization. Disagreements over the status of maritime areas, such as the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea, are at the root of the conflict between Turkey and Greece.
The two countries do not agree on the definition of their sea and air borders in this area. “This destabilizes NATO because it is a confrontation between two member states. But also because this conflict has shown that not all countries in the Atlantic Alliance have a uniform approach to this issue. France supports Greece, while Germany is more cautious. Hungary and.” “Poland is close to the Turks, while the Americans criticize them without specifically representing Greek interests,” explains Aurélien Denizeau.
During a historic visit by President Erdogan to Athens on December 7, the first since 2017, Greece and Turkey agreed to strengthen their diplomatic relations. Commitments made included increasing trade volumes and working on the sensitive issue of the Aegean.
Read alsoReconciliation operation between Greece and Turkey during Erdogan's visit
Turkey does not impose sanctions against Russia
Turkey's refusal to impose sanctions against Russia is also increasing tensions within the Atlantic Alliance, although Ankara supports Ukraine in particular by providing Bayraktar-TB2 attack drones. Ankara also closed the Bosphorus to ships from the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
“It is commentators in NATO countries who criticize Turkey for not imposing sanctions against Russia. Governments are aware that the country cannot afford this. “Ankara is largely dependent on Moscow for its energy supply and cannot take the risk of an economic crisis,” analyzes Aurélien Denizeau. In addition, the researcher recalls, Turkey maintains good relations with the Eastern European countries that are members of NATO, such as Poland. However, the latter are “deeply hostile towards Russia. But from their point of view, the Turks’ talks with the Russians are not a problem.”
On the other hand, Turkey's purchase of S-400 anti-aircraft missiles from Russia, announced in 2017, is a cause of great concern within the Atlantic Alliance. At the moment these weapons are not activated yet. NATO demands Turkey send them back to Moscow. The problem is security. “By integrating technological data into these missiles, Russia could access certain sensitive data from NATO countries. The activation of these missiles amounts to an integration of weapons with Russian components within the Atlantic Alliance,” says Aurélien Denizeau. From an organizational point of view, this represents a challenge in the form of penetration of Russian high technology into the defense system of the Atlantic Alliance.”
The war in Gaza, a burning issue
The return of war to the Middle East is also causing differences between Turkey and other NATO member states. The Turkish president supports the Palestinian cause. Some of his statements differ widely from the positions of the majority of Member State governments.
Unlike the United States, Canada or the European Union, Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization. “Hamas is not a terrorist group, it is a group of liberators protecting their country,” the Turkish president said on October 25. Recep Tayyip Erdogan went so far as to call Israel a “terrorist state” on November 15 before members of his party gathered in the Turkish parliament.
Observers noted a change in tone from the Turkish president after the Oct. 17 explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza, which independent investigations said may have been caused by a falling rocket fired by a Palestinian group.
“After October 7, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in the position of mediator. “But after the explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital, he completely radicalized his speech by sharply attacking Israel,” says Didier Billion. He knows that part of public opinion agrees with him. And at the regional level, this speech is appreciated by the people of the Middle East. “Western powers know that his powerful and radical statements serve Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s fundamental interests, even if this creates tensions with NATO countries.”
But these tensions will not lead to divorce. Washington believes NATO needs Turkey, a country it sees as a “fortress on the alliance’s southeastern flank.” And as a very useful basis for action in the region,” explains Aurélien. Denizeau. “For his part, the Turkish president believes that the Atlantic Alliance is Turkey's true security insurance. Neither Russia nor China can play this role,” said Didier Billion.