According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, despite yesterday’s meeting between Putin and Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus’ involvement in the Russian war against Ukraine remains unlikely: Here’s why.
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It took place yesterday at Minsk the expected meeting between the Russian President Wladimir Putin and his friend Alexander Lukashenko. It was the eighth two-way summit since the beginning of the year.
At the end of the meeting, which lasted a few hours, Putin limited himself to announcing that a approval to strengthen cooperation in “all sectors” between the two countries, especially in defense “to ensure their security”, such as “mutual supplies of weapons“, as well as the joint manufacture of weapons. Russia will also continue to train the Belarusian military to fly the Soviet Union-designed Belarusian aircraft, which have been retrofitted for the possible use of ammunition with a special warhead.
“Russia can do without us and we cannot do without them. We are able to protect ours independence alone, without Russia? No! And if someone thinks they can separate us today, drive a wedge between us, they won’t succeed,” said the Belarusian counterpart.
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But according to experts from theInstitute for War StudiesLukashenko’s aid to Moscow will remain very limited, even emphasizing that “Belarus’ involvement in Putin’s war against Ukraine remains unlikely. The fact that Putin seems to have accepted Lukashenko’s arguments without convincing him to compare them with his own indirectly supports this assessment.”
The reference refers to the fact that Lukashenko, again according to the ISW, used the rhetoric of the defense of the Belarusian borders versus the West and the BORN in an effort to avoid participating in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During the meeting, both refrained from speaking publicly about the Russian invasion, noting that Belarus still faces “the Western threat.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peshkov stated that Putin did not go to Belarus to persuade Lukashenko to join War, noting that such speculation was unfounded and “silly”. The Kremlin boss himself confirmed this at the press conference at the end of the summit: “Russia has no interest in advertising record someone It just doesn’t make sense,” he said.
But that double negative is more of an attempt to cover it up, according to ISW analysts despair by Putin to involve Lukashenko in the war and the apparent failure – once again – to do so.