From the moment Kansas State kicker Ty Zentner’s 31-yard field goal sailed through the posts to give the Wildcats the Big 12 title and hand TCU their first loss of the season, all eyes snapped up Tuscaloosa, Alabama. At that moment, the No. 6 Crimson Tide’s hopes of making the College Football Playoffs were heating up. As Alabama was forced into the discussion with two losses, Nick Saban began campaigning for his team to be considered for even last spot in the field to join the broadcast crew at halftime of the Big Ten Championship Game to lay out his team’s case.
However, some flaws in Saban’s arguments were apparent. So, let’s break down some of the factors preventing Alabama from joining the four-team college football playoff field regarding Saban’s arguments.
It has no gain in quality
“We lost two games against top 10 teams along the way in a tough league – a top 5 team in the last play of the game.”
Alabama’s best win is a one-point win over No. 20 Texas in Week 2, and that win included 15 penalties accepted, many penalties, and an inability to consistently move the ball despite defeating Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young had was healthy at the time – took the snaps. Is there another gain in quality? The only other ranking win is a 30-6 decision over 24th state Mississippi. Let’s face it, when we say that a win against Mississippi State is one of a team’s signature victories, it speaks volumes about how easy this hike should have been.
The committee calls it “game control,” and Alabama hasn’t exactly excelled in that area either. A very mediocre Texan A&M team had a shot in the end zone for a potential upset over time in Tuscaloosa, and Ole Miss had a similar chance for a tie – and won by an extra point – in Oxford, Mississippi . Let’s not forget the game in Arkansas, which despite the 49-26 final was much closer than the result suggests. Alabama’s case for the CFP really revolves around quality losses at No. 7 Tennessee and No. 14 LSU. When a team’s main argument is their losses, it speaks volumes.
Other teams have better cases
“We shouldn’t just look at the numbers of one loss and two losses. Who are the best teams?”
TCU lost in overtime to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game, which was the Horned Frogs’ first loss of the season. What makes his case unique is that he’s already beaten every team on the schedule — including the same Kansas State team in the regular season. Essentially, they played themselves into a chance to lose in a rematch. TCU’s quality wins include defeating Kansas State and a seven-point win over Texas in Austin, Texas — a comparable result to the one-point win Alabama had in the same building. Oh, and there’s the obvious fact that a one-loss team has one less loss than a two-loss team, but that’s just simple math.
The state of Ohio has a much better case in addition to the same super complicated math above. The Buckeyes’ signature win is a 44-31 win at No. 8 Penn State, which the committee obviously loves. It also has that 11-point win over No. 21 Notre Dame, a team likely to find themselves in the top 20 in Sunday’s final rankings. Sure, last week’s 23:45 home loss to Michigan wasn’t great, but the Wolverines are the second-ranked team in the country. If we’re judging losses, a loss to the country’s second-ranked team is still better than two losses to Tennessee and an LSU team that could fall out of the top 20 after a 50-30 win over Georgia on Saturday in the SEC- championship game.
In reality, Tennessee has a better case than Alabama. Aside from the apparent heads-up win over the Crimson Tide, the Volunteers stomped LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge, Looisiana, the same place Alabama lost to the same Tigers.
Vegas odds don’t matter
“If we were to play one of those teams that are about to get in, would we be the underdogs? Or would we be the favourites?”
Saban championed his team with gambling odds. Serious? We’re gonna use gambling odds to try and make a case? Lines of play are used to make money for odds makers, which means trying to get comparable money on both sides. Yes, Alabama is quite a favorite because – breaking news here – it’s a pretty good team. But Alabama’s brand name is also very important to people involved in investing.
It’s also worth noting that Alabama is going 3-5-1 against the spread against Power Five opponents this year. So you can’t trust that the Crimson Tide can actually keep up with this Vegas hype.