1 of 1 Lula during a trip to the US to meet Biden — Photo: Portal/Evelyn Hockstein Lula during a trip to the US to meet Biden — Photo: Portal/Evelyn Hockstein
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“Attempts at mediation are likely to favor Russia. Ukraine must fight to free its citizens living under barbaric Russian military occupation. Moscow can accept a truce to ‘freeze’ the front line and retain control of the occupied territories while it waits to gain enough strength and confidence to move forward again,” says Keir Giles, Senior Adviser to the Russia and Eurasia Committee program at Chatam House, the UK’s leading institute for international relations.
“So it makes sense that Russia would be upset about any possible ‘peace plan’ if it can benefit from it in the future,” adds the expert, who lived in Russia in the early 1990s and is also a research director at the Conflict Studies Research Center (CSRC). , a think tank formerly attached to the UK Ministry of Defence.
Giles refers to statements made by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin in an interview with the Russian state news agency Tass on Thursday (February 23). According to him, Moscow is considering Lula’s proposal to end the conflict while continuing to assess the situation in Ukraine.
So far, no formal proposal has been made to Russia by the Brazilian government.
Resolution adopted with the support of Brazil
There were 141 votes in favour, 7 against and 33 abstentions.
The text contains a Brazilian recommendation for the “end of hostilities” between Russia and Ukraine.
Brazil, which even abstained in other votes on the conflict, voted in favor of the resolution, the only one in the BRICS group China, India and South Africa abstained.
The resolution is not binding, but has political weight despite its purely symbolic value.
Lula has tried to promote Brazil as a potential mediator for the end of the war, to reinsert the country on the world political scene after the bitter isolation experienced during the government of his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The Brazilian President’s idea is to create a group of countries, possibly including India, China and Indonesia, to mediate the negotiations, a kind of “peace club”.
However, Giles points out that “if a group of peace brokers for Ukraine includes India and China, they have also refrained from condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine,” alluding to the recent UN resolution.
Brazil is not the only country proposing solutions to the conflict; China, Turkey and many others have also agreed to mediate in the negotiations.
“This guy (Zelensky) is just as responsible as Putin. Because in a war there isn’t just one culprit,” Lula said. show,” he added at the time.
Lula makes a controversial statement about the war in Ukraine in an interview with Time Magazine
For Giles, “Lula isn’t the only one who claims Russia wasn’t to blame for initiating the invasion of Ukraine a year ago.”
“Bizarre as it may sound to anyone who has heard President Putin outline his ambitions to restore the Russian Empire, it is a vision that has influenced many countries outside the EuroAtlantic region.”
“These include states in Africa that abstained from voting in the UN General Assembly on a resolution condemning the Russian attack, thereby tacitly agreeing to a colonial war of reconquest.”
“Russia, of course, sees the benefit of this ambivalence and will therefore encourage it wherever possible for example by expressing gratitude to Brazil for not condemning its aggression,” he concludes.
‘No automatic alignment’
Lula has avoided an automatic rapprochement with the United States and the European Union, trying to present himself as a defender of the traditional neutral position of Brazilian diplomacy.
But this neutrality also has economic reasons: for years Russia has been the leader in the fertilizer market, which is vital for the Brazilian agricultural industry and is largely imported.
For example, Lula turned down a request from the German government for Brazil to supply tank ammunition that would be passed from Berlin to Ukraine.
Despite the nonalignment, the president has discussed the conflict with key Western leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
For the researcher Mathieu Boulègue, on the other hand, “there should be no incentive for the international community to negotiate or haggle with a war criminal,” he says, alluding to Russia.
“No compromises should be made and full support should be given to Ukraine. Period,” adds Boulègue, who specializes in Eurasian security and defense issues, with a focus on Russian foreign policy and military affairs.
Like Giles, Boulègue raises doubts about Russia’s real intention to reach a peaceful solution to the conflict.
“Nothing the Kremlin does or says about ‘negotiated deals’ or peace settlements can be trusted or taken seriously.
He also remains pessimistic about an imminent end to the war.
“Ukraine will not negotiate with an intruder who does not even recognize Ukrainians’ right to exist as a nation.”
Speaking to BBC News Brasil, Brazilian ambassadors privately said they were not aware of any initiative by the Russians to contact the Itamaraty to ask for details about Brazil’s peace club proposal. But they see Moscow’s public gesture as recognition of Brazil as an “honest negotiator” on the field. Incidentally, the same recognition would have been given to Brazil from the Ukrainian side: on the last 18th, Chancellor Mauro Vieira met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, on the sidelines of the security conference in Munich, Germany, to uncover Brazil’s position on the war. Zelenskyy said on Friday that he was open to negotiations with countries other than NATO allies.
The governments of Brazil and Ukraine are working to enable a phone call between Lula and Zelenskyy next week.
This text was originally published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/c801gk58e5po