After 20 months, with an international arrest warrant and an ongoing war that could soon end due to the winter mud, Vladimir Putin left his country to visit Xi Jinping. The occasion is the third forum of the Belt and Road Initiative, which coincides with its tenth anniversary, the Silk Road from which Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Italy will emerge without too much noise. The reasons for this official visit are varied: from the signing of energy projects to the delivery of drones to the need to find new impetus for its international status. Despite the premises, the meeting could only be a formality. “I think China has no interest in signing new contracts, at least publicly, because anything that can be presented as an additional flow of money to Putin’s coffers and his war machine is not good at the moment,” he said. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank, told Portal. So it’s all smoke and mirrors, even if appearances count in the international context. Suffice it to say that among the guests is Viktor Orbán, the only one of the 27 Union members who is in Beijing.
Putin is looking for new energy contracts
For an economy heavily dependent on hydrocarbons – federal revenues account for 40-50% of total revenue (data: Sciencedirect) – finding new contracts that match the war industry’s efforts is critical. This is why, according to many observers, Putin traveled to Beijing: to ask Xi Jinping to sign energy agreements. Two projects between the two superpowers are still stalled: the construction of Sila Sibiri 2 (Power of Siberia 2), a gas pipeline that will cross the motherland and Mongolia and transport 50 million tons of gas annually to China. At the same time, Moscow hopes to receive from Beijing the necessary technologies to carry out Sakhalin 3, oil and gas production on the island in the southeast of the country, north of Japan. The project is currently blocked due to sanctions from the European Union and the United States. Yesterday, however, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov made a statement about the drones used in Ukraine: “Basically, all of our drones come from the People’s Republic of China.” We are also very grateful to our partners for that.” The Kremlin wants 60 billion rubles (around 580 million euros) to increase the production of civilian drones in the country by 41%.
The line to Gaza
The relations between the two heads of state and government are also very close in terms of foreign policy. Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Both supported the urgency of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and agreed on the two-state solution, one Israeli and one Palestinian, to resolve the conflict. The meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping will therefore be an opportunity to renew relations on “international and regional issues,” according to a statement. The allies will present themselves in the Middle East as potential mediators of the conflict. An undertaking that was already successful in Beijing and favored the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And China itself will send Zhai Jun as its special envoy to present a proposal for a ceasefire and peace talks. On the Russian side, however, Putin will assert his ties with the Arab world.
Orbán, the soft underbelly of Europe
Two posts on X with one message: Hungary is moving away from Europe. “Meeting with President Putin in Beijing. Everyone in Europe is wondering the same thing: can there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? It is crucial for Europe, including Hungary, that the flow of refugees, the sanctions and the clashes end!” said the Hungarian on social media.
An accompanying photo of the two leaders, who also spoke about energy cooperation. Rosatom, a Russian company, is building a nuclear power plant in Hungary, while Gazprom is honoring existing contracts. “We are trying to save everything we can. Hungary never wanted a conflict with Russia. On the contrary: our goal has always been to establish and expand mutual contacts, and we have succeeded. However, due to the military operation and sanctions, our relations have suffered greatly. We are interested in maintaining cooperation not only at the communication level, but also at the economic level, as long as this is possible,” Orbán said.
Also today, the Hungarian Prime Minister met Xi Jinping himself, bilaterally crowned by another contribution: “Meeting with President Xi in Beijing.” Connectivity instead of decoupling: That is the Hungarian model. Our goal is to strengthen relations between Hungary and China. This is good for Hungary and for the European economy.” I just remember the European Recommendation published on October 3rd and also signed by Hungary, which listed four macro categories at risk of technology theft from China. A strategy to de-risk Beijing’s industry. But Orbán is better off on the international field playing with two jerseys.
Photo credit: EPA/SERGEI SAVOSTYANOV/SPUTNIK | Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping during the welcoming ceremony of international leaders for the third forum of the Belt and Road Initiative on October 17, 2023
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