Ukraine is beefing up reinforcements in the town of Bakhmut, making a Russian breakthrough in the hardest-hit region increasingly unlikely more than 10 months into the war.
Britain’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that Ukraine has deployed significant reinforcements over the past 10 days to defend Bakhmut amid mounting clashes in the city, located in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region.
A Ukrainian soldier of an artillery unit fires at Russian positions outside Bakhmut on November 8, 2022 amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine is ramping up reinforcements in the city. BULENT KILIC/AFP/Getty Images
In his daily balance of the Ukraine warThe ministry noted that while infantry attacks by the Russian military and the Wagner Group were increasing in mid-December, these operations were “poorly supported.”
And as Ukraine bolstered its defenses in the bloody Battle of Bakhmut, the frequency of Russian attacks has likely decreased from last month’s peak, the Defense Ministry estimated, noting that both Ukraine and Russia have suffered heavy casualties.
“Russian offensive operations in the region are now likely to be conducted only at the platoon or sector level,” the ministry concluded. “Russia is unlikely to make a significant breakthrough near Bakhmut in the coming weeks.”
Bakhmut is one of the most intense theaters of war, and Russian forces in the region are led by members of a notorious mercenary unit, the Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Serhiy Haidai, Ukrainian governor of the partially Russian-occupied Luhansk region, said on his Telegram channel on December 26 that thousands of Russian troops died in the Battle of Bakhmut.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) quoted Prigozhin on Monday as saying that Ukrainian troops had heavily fortified the residential area around Bakhmut so that there was a new line of defense “every 10 meters”.
According to the US-based think tank, on January 1 and 2, Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Bakhmut and in the Avdiivka area, about 60 miles south of Bakhmut, “at a low rate of advance”.
Meanwhile, a video of a Ukrainian soldier describing how his forces have consistently repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut has been circulating on social media.
“Friends, this is what one of the Bakhmut city districts looks like right now,” the soldier said in the clip, shared by Twitter user Dmitri, who is at WarTranslated, an independent project dedicated to the translation of various materials about the war deals with English.
“Friends, as for the operational situation on the morning of January 2, all attempts to attack our operational area have been repelled, although they were quite large in our defense area,” the soldier said.
“They came like roaches, we had to get the ammo over a couple of times,” he continued.
“In short, as far as the Bakhmut conglomerate is concerned, the defense line is up and running, don’t worry, keep your nerve, everyone is in their place and doing their job,” added the Ukrainian soldier. “Bahmut is Ukraine. It stood, stands and will continue to stand.”
Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian commander, told Newsweek last month that Russia’s persistent push towards Bakhmut shows Moscow has “overestimated” the strength of its armed forces.
“Despite all the difficulties, we’re sticking to it,” said Kostenko, who commands a special unit. “This confrontation with Bakhmut is really revealing because it shows how the Russians overestimated their own strength. The image of an unstoppable force [President Vladimir Putin] attempted to project early in the invasion was overshadowed by the reality of a weak and unmotivated military.”
“We see that in Bakhmut where the Russians throw everything at us, are said to have a 9-1 advantage over our forces and yet couldn’t take it,” he said.
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment.
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