In a speech on Monday, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps warned that Britain had left its post-war state behind and was now facing a “pre-war world.”
His comments served to highlight the need for Britain to increase defense spending, but also highlighted growing concerns about current and future conflicts.
Relative peace in Europe was shattered by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the Middle East was again in crisis 18 months later following Hamas' October 7 terrorist attack on Israel and Israel's retaliation against Gaza.
And while these two conflicts dominated the news cycle, others also wreaked havoc in Africa, Southeast Asia and the Caucasus.
Meanwhile, fears are growing that the war in Gaza could spill over into the Middle East and that China could invade Taiwan in the coming years – a conflict that has the potential to plunge the world into a third global war.
In addition, NATO Admiral Rob Bauer warned on Thursday that the military alliance is preparing for an attack by Russia within the next 20 years.
If it appears that the world is experiencing a rise in deadly conflict, the data is there to support that belief. Figures from the Oslo Peace Research Institute show that there will be more combat-related deaths from state conflicts in 2022 than in any other year since 1984.
The data shows that the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) accounted for the majority of the more than 204,000 recorded war-related deaths last year.
It was also the first year since World War II that fighting in Europe caused more than 25,000 of the world's deaths from state violence.
According to Justin Crump, an intelligence, security and defense expert and CEO of global risk analytics firm Sibylline, more regional conflicts can be expected in the coming years, especially as climate change worsens, resources become more scarce and the world's superpowers clash in fighting proxy wars using gray zone tactics.
Relative peace in Europe was shattered by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the Middle East was once again in crisis 18 months later following Hamas' October 7 terrorist attack on Israel and Israel's retaliation against Gaza (pictured ).
There are growing fears that China could invade Taiwan in the coming years – a conflict that has the potential to plunge the world into a third global war
On Thursday, NATO Admiral Rob Bauer warned that the military alliance is preparing for an attack by Russia within the next 20 years. Pictured: Russian tanks are seen during an exercise in Belarus on February 21, 2022 – days before Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine
Figures from the Oslo Peace Research Institute show that there will be more combat-related deaths from state conflicts in 2022 than in any other year since 1984
Asked by Web about growing fears of a global conflict, Mr Crump said: “I don't think it's inevitable, but I think the risks are increasing.”
“If it doesn't happen next year, it will be at the end of the decade and we will face a similar problem.” And if nothing changes dramatically on the planet, the risk will continue to increase. “Tensions will continue to rise.”
Since 2020, in addition to the current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, there have also been a number of regional conflicts.
The Tigray War killed tens of thousands of people across northern Ethiopia between November 2020 and November 2022, while an ongoing civil war in Sudan that began in April 2023 has also resulted in widespread death and destruction.
There were also a number of successful military coups in Africa. Governments have been toppled in countries such as Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, Mali, Gabon and Niger, and the Democratic Republic of Congo is also facing an ongoing humanitarian crisis with roots dating back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
Another coup occurred in 2021, this time in Myanmar, when the military overthrew the democratically elected government of Win Myint and Aung San Suu Kyi, plunging the country into crisis. The rebels continue to fight back.
Nagorno-Karabakh has emerged as another flashpoint in recent years, culminating in 2023 when Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive in the region, forcing the Armenian population there from their homes.
According to Mr. Crump, we can expect more of these regional conflicts.
But while the conflicts listed above are predominantly political in nature, he believes there is a likelihood of wars being fought because resources such as water are dwindling due to climate change and more and more people are forced to leave their homes.
“We will definitely see more regional conflicts next year as pressure increases and climate change forces people to move,” he said.
'Guess what? They clash. That causes problems. There isn't enough water. People will start fighting for water. All of this will happen.
“It’s just the way it is, whether it’s this year, next year or 10 years from now.”
Sibylline's annual global risk analysis report lists climate change as one of five key drivers of political security, governance and criminal trends.
It suggests that rising temperatures increase the risk of wildfires, trigger irregular storms and increase the risk of floods and droughts.
“As human settlements become increasingly vulnerable to these risks, the impacts of our climate change will continue to alter people’s locations and movement patterns – they will also drive competition for resources,” the report said.
Climate change, the company adds, “is a slow but steady driver of instability and change, exacerbating many other long-standing sources of tension and increasing the likelihood of disruption and risk to life.”
A destroyed tank is seen in a field after fighting between Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in Kasagita town in Afar region, Ethiopia, February 25, 2022
A truck transporting grain to Tigray, owned by the World Food Program (WFP), burns down on a route 80 kilometers from Semera, Ethiopia, on June 10, 2022
A man waves an Ethiopian flag as he joins other people protesting during a protest in support of the country's armed forces on October 22, 2022 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
This photo taken on December 10, 2023 shows members of the Mandalay People's Defense Forces (MDY-PDF) patrolling near the front lines amid clashes with Myanmar's military
Sub-Saharan Africa – already a region of extreme poverty and disease – will bear the brunt of rising temperatures sooner than others.
Agriculture is regularly affected by extreme weather in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, and loss of livelihoods and increasingly scarce resources “are exacerbating intercommunal conflicts, further militarizing historical disputes and encouraging communities to mobilize along ethnic lines,” it says in the report.
Both military governments and jihadist groups in the region are exploiting this, with the former already marginalizing marginalized communities and the latter using it to boost recruitment. More extreme groups lead to more violence.
Late last year, nearly 300 Christians were reportedly killed in a wave of “coordinated” attacks on Christmas Eve in Nigeria. The attacks were reportedly carried out by the Islamist Fulani militia, which was named the world's fourth deadliest terrorist group by the Global Terrorism Index in 2014.
While the attacks are believed to have been religiously motivated, there have also been other local conflicts over land rights between herders and agricultural villages in Nigeria's Middle Belt.
Sibylline's report also highlights the risk that climate change poses to the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey.
The region is grappling with extreme storms, unusually heavy rainfall and wildfires, as well as droughts, sandstorms and food insecurity. Turkey also fell victim to a deadly earthquake last year that displaced thousands of people.
Deteriorating conditions in sub-Saharan Africa, the north of the continent and the Middle East will continue to cause people to flee their homes.
This will push them to safer countries in Europe, where the issue of migration can inflame tensions – both between states and in domestic politics – fueling border disputes and emboldening parties with more extreme views.
In addition, Africa is home to about a third of the world's natural resources, including minerals critical to the world's clean energy technologies.
Forecasts suggest that in the coming decades the world will need many times more cobalt, copper and lithium than is produced for consumer goods and defense applications such as phones, electric vehicles and satellites.
This poses a major challenge for the United States and the rest of the West, as China dominates the world's crucial supply of such minerals.
In fact, according to the United States Institute for Peace, China accounts for 60 percent of global production and 85 percent of processing capacity.
China is already well anchored in Africa. For example, Chinese companies now own shares in almost all producing mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies 70 percent of the world's cobalt.
Chinese mining companies have also invested heavily in lithium mines and are behind lithium projects in countries such as Namibia, Zimbabwe and Mali.
It is estimated that Beijing could control a third of the world's lithium capacity by 2025, significantly outperforming the United States and other countries. The West's need for the same resources will only lead to further divisions with China.
Tensions between the US and China are already high amid fears Beijing could order an invasion of Taiwan in the coming years.
China claims self-ruled Taiwan as its territory, and fears have grown in recent years that President Xi Jinping is planning an invasion in the coming years amid increasingly hostile rhetoric and simulated blockades of the island.
Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers are gathered during a military exercise in the Pamir Mountains in Kashgar, northwest China's Xinjiang region, in January 2021
Tensions between the US and China are already high amid fears Beijing could order an invasion of Taiwan in the coming years. Pictured: Chinese troops march into Beijing (file photo)
In this handout image provided by the Taiwan Ministry of Defense and released April 9, 2023, Taiwan Army soldiers participate in a military exercise at an undisclosed location in Taiwan
Taiwan's mandatory soldiers demonstrate their combat skills to the media at a military base in Taichung, Taiwan, Nov. 23, 2023
There is no doubt that such an invasion would have devastating consequences for the region from a humanitarian perspective. Some estimate that up to 500,000 people could be killed in such a military operation.
But experts also warn of the devastating impact of an attack from an economic perspective, especially for the West.
Taiwan produces 90 percent of the world's advanced chips, the brains of all modern electronic devices, and any shortage of semiconductors has been described as “catastrophic” for both the UK and the global economy.
If China conquers Taiwan, it would also corner the semiconductor market and give the US and its allies plenty of incentives to defend Taiwan – something Washington has said it would do in the event of an invasion.
China has also shown hostility toward its other neighbors in recent years.
It has become increasingly aggressive in the South China Sea as its navy and fishing vessels often come into close contact with Philippine vessels.
He is also accused of using his massive fishing fleet to dominate the South China Sea, which he says should be almost entirely under his control.
A New York Times investigation last year highlighted how China's fishing boats – often armed with weapons – along with its aggressive coast guard work, enforced Beijing's presence more than 1,600 miles from China's coast.
Beijing has also clashed with Japan over the disputed Senkaku Islands and is using its fishing industry to bolster its claim.
There have also been clashes between China and India in the Galwan Valley in the Himalayas, with soldiers from the world's two largest nations, both armed with nuclear weapons, clashing with close-range weapons.
In 2021, China admitted losing four of its troops in the fighting.
Mr Crump says China's actions in the South China Sea are a prime example of “gray zone” tactics – a type of unconventional warfare
Clementine G. Starling is deputy director of the Forward Defense practice and a resident fellow at the Transatlantic Security Initiative. She told the Atlantic Council think tank that she defines the “gray zone” as “a range of activities that occur between peace (or cooperation) and war (or armed conflict).
“A wide range of activities fall into this murky in-between – from nefarious economic activities, influence operations and cyberattacks to mercenary operations, assassinations and disinformation campaigns,” she added.
The West, says Mr. Crump, should be concerned about such tactics from China.
“It's the fishing fleet, it's the Coast Guard.” It's the way they just push into that space and just make it their own and basically say, “What are you going to do about this?” Are you going to fire a missile at us? I don’t think you do.”
“And it's really hard to find an answer, and it's this kind of creeping penetration of geography, societies and thought that's going on.”
An image taken from southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip shows smoke rising over the Palestinian territory during the Israeli bombardment on January 19, 2024
As China's rhetoric towards Taiwan becomes increasingly worrying, there are also fears that the ongoing fighting between Israel and the Hamas terror group in Gaza could spill over into the Middle East.
In recent months, we have seen Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen attack ships traveling through the Red Sea between Asia and Europe – disrupting global trade.
In response, the US and UK have struck targets in Yemen with missiles, but have so far failed to deter further Houthi attacks.
The vital shipping route remains interrupted.
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah group has also launched attacks on Israel from Lebanon, raising fears that war could also break out between Israeli forces and Hezbollah – a force far superior to Hamas.
Meanwhile, Iran attacked targets in Pakistan this week. Tehran said the attacks were aimed at a terrorist group, but the move still angered officials in Islamabad.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan responded overnight on Thursday, counterattacking targets in Iran that it said were also home to terrorists, killing at least three people.
Mr Crump says diplomatic efforts by the US and other countries in the region are currently sufficient to keep the crisis under control.
However, popular anger in the Arab world is growing over the IDF's treatment of the people of Gaza in its own efforts to root out Hamas.
There are fears that some Arab governments in the region that are more sympathetic to Hamas may be forced to act out of fear of unrest at home, such as that seen in the Arab Spring that sparked the 2010s Chaos caused.
Although there are several potential flashpoints – not to mention Russia's increasingly aggressive rhetoric about its plans regarding Eastern Europe and NATO, which this week said it was preparing for a Russian invasion within the next 20 years, Mr Crump said, He thinks it is unlikely that this will be the case. In the third war, the world's superpowers would meet head-on in the foreseeable future.
Instead, he says it is more likely that the world's nuclear nations will fight by proxy and with gray zone tactics.
Such tactics have already been observed. The Kremlin used “little green men” to suddenly seize Crimea in 2014, while China used cursive economic tactics to wrest control of resources as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, as seen in Africa.
Cyberattacks, information campaigns and other forms of nonviolent pressure are also carried out covertly by the world's superpowers.
Using Taiwan as an example, Mr. Crump says we can expect such tactics to become more common in the coming years as the world's superpowers clash.
“When China launches missiles and sends amphibious warships [to invade Taiwan]“Then America might feel like it needs to do something immediately,” he says.
Instead, he expects an attack on Taiwan to be “subtle, insidious and sneaky.”
“I think one of the points here is that there are potentially a lot of regional conflicts and a lot of gray area conflicts,” he adds.
“When you talk about the Third World War, everyone is very afraid because they imagine mushroom clouds. But Russia does not want to actually stop existing through Ukraine at any point. At no point does the US or China want to die in a fiery hell over Taiwan.
Ukrainian soldiers check newly constructed anti-tank fortifications called “dragon's teeth” and barbed wire near the Russian border in Chernihiv region, Ukraine, Jan. 10, 2024
Ukrainian soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine's 128th Transcarpathian Mountain Assault Brigade take part in tank exercises in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Jan. 11
“Nobody's that crazy about it.” “So we're actually back to warfare the way it used to be, which is countries fighting over something (while at the same time being able to almost cooperate on something somewhere else),” Mr. Crump said.
“They fight with proxies, which is probably what the US did in Vietnam.” That was probably the case in Korea. We (the West) have certainly fought against proxies supported by China.
“But the US has never really fought China. It never hit mainland China. It will be a bit like that – a widespread regional conflict.
“I think that’s more likely than an all-out world war,” he said.