Scientists have tried to allay fears about rising Covid deaths in New York by saying a spike could be expected in the winter months.
Covid data from the state health department shows 915 people died from Covid in December, up 30 percent from the 664 last month.
Some experts and the media raised concerns, stressing that the number of deaths had “increased” and “people were losing their vigilance”.
But the number of deaths is half that of December 2021 and a third of winter 2020 levels. The current rate is also a far cry from the 16,000 monthly deaths New York suffered at the start of the pandemic.
dr Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at City University of New York, told that the drop in Covid deaths shows vaccines, boosters and antivirals are working, adding that it underscores “how far we’ve come “.
The chart above shows Covid deaths in New York state by month and the 30 percent increase described as a spike by the New York Post
However, deaths from respiratory diseases – including Covid, flu and RSV – are expected to increase this time of year as colder conditions mean people spend more time indoors where the virus can spread more easily.
The country is also currently being hit by a triple epidemic after flu and RSV cases overwhelmed children’s hospitals earlier than expected.
The “Kraken” variant XBB.1.5 – for which New York is a hotspot – has been feared, but there’s no sign it’s any more likely to cause serious illness than its competitors. Experts have come out today to suggest the concerns are overblown and not spreading as quickly as previously thought.
Given the New York State figures, Dr. Nash told : “I think that number is a sign of how far we’ve come.
“I mean, the first thing that comes to mind is the increased immunity that people have developed from vaccines, boosters and infections.
The chart above shows Covid cases by week in the United States. So far, more than 100 million cases have been registered in the United States
This chart shows hospital admissions by week in the United States
This graph shows deaths per week in the United States
“The next thing that comes to mind is people, not enough, but many people turn to antivirals when they contract Covid, which can reduce the risk of severe disease.
“The further we move in the pandemic, the better we can prevent the worst.”
He added that it is not surprising that Covid deaths rise in winter when respiratory viruses are more likely to spread.
“We’re expecting a winter tide,” he said.
“We saw an outlier after the Thanksgiving holiday and I think people started gathering more after the Christmas holidays and New Year’s holidays, so we expect an increase in cases and deaths after that as well.”
dr Nash also warned that there were still too many people dying from Covid in the US, with around 390 deaths a day.
About 29 people die from Covid in New York every day, up from 22 last month.
Hospitalizations are currently flat, with an average of about 734 people admitted each week.
And every day about 2,400 people are catching the virus, also a small change from last week, although that may be due to a lack of testing.
Nationwide, hospital admissions are down 11 percent from the previous week to an average of 5,545 new patients hospitalized per week, up from 6,230 previously.
But deaths are trending up, with 2,731 recorded last week, eight percent up from the previous seven days.
Covid cases are the same across the country, with around 470,000 recorded in the week ending January 4th alone.
America has recorded the highest number of deaths from Covid of any nation in the world, with the current figure standing at more than 1.091 million.
And last week it became the first country in the world to officially surpass 100 million infections.
It is estimated that at least 60 percent of Americans have already been infected with Covid since April, giving them significant immunity.
About 73 per cent – or 228 million people – have also come forward to receive their first two doses of the Covid vaccine.
The US, in line with other countries, also implemented a booster program this year to boost immunity in the country.
Studies show that protection can diminish over time in older people, who are at higher risk of serious illness and death if they contract the virus.
But just 38 percent of those over 65 have signed up for a bivalent refresher this year.
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Are “octopus” fears exaggerated? Experts say the XBB.1.5 variant is NOT spreading as fast as feared
Fears over the ‘kraken’ variant of Covid may be overblown, experts warned today as data showed it is not spreading as quickly as first feared.
XBB.1.5 – a spin-off from Omicron – is said to be the most transferrable strain yet.
Its emergence fueled concerns it would break through vaccine-induced immunity after triggering a “staggering spike” in cases in the US, where it was first discovered.
But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the US agency responsible for fighting the virus, has now downgraded its estimates of how many infections the variant causes.
XBB.1.5 – a spin-off from Omicron – is said to be the most transferrable strain yet. But the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the American agency responsible for fighting the virus, has now downgraded its estimates of how many infections the variant causes (from 41 percent to 18 percent a week). December 31
Latest data shows the variant accounted for just 18.3 percent of cases in the week ended December 31.
Previously, an estimated 41 percent of infections in the week were caused by XBB.1.5.
Professor Paul Hunter, a public health expert at the University of East Anglia, told Web: “The CDC estimate of the growth rate of XBB.1.5 appears to be overestimated.
“They downgraded their estimate of the percentage of all infections due for the week ending December 31 from 40.5 percent to just 18.3 percent in the same week.”
Professor Hunter admitted it was “still growing” but insisted the situation was “much less scary than it seemed a few days ago”.