Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly called on Western leaders to impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, but the creation of one seems unlikely soon.
Why it matters: The imposition of a no-fly zone (NFZ) would mark a significant escalation of the war – potentially bringing NATO, of which Ukraine is not a member, directly into a conventional conflict with a nuclear power.
- The United States and other great powers have so far it has ruled out the creation of an NFZ over Ukraine.
No-fly zones are explained
- The no-fly zone is airspace in which certain aircraft are not allowed to enter.
- In the context of conflicts and wars, it is commonly used to stop banned aircraft from entering the airspace for attacks, transportation of troops and weapons, and surveillance.
- Prohibited areas must be imposed militarily, which may include the removal of prohibited aircraft.
What Ukraine wants
- Zelensky told Axios this week that Ukraine wants a no-fly zone over “significant parts” of the country.
- “If the West does this, Ukraine will defeat the aggressor with much less blood,” said Zelensky, who remains in Ukraine under siege by Vladimir Putin.
- The Ukrainian president reiterated the call several times and said on Thursday that if the United States and NATO do not create a no-fly zone, they must provide military aircraft so that Ukraine can defend itself.
Why the West is unlikely to act
- If Western countries, particularly NATO, impose a no-fly zone, they will be responsible for enforcing it, which could mean shooting down banned Russian warplanes.
- “If NATO imposes it and we shoot down even one Russian plane, we are at war with Russia,” said Howard Stoffer, a professor at the University of New Haven. That would be a big escalation and it is not something NATO wants to do at the moment, Stoffer told Axios.
- Unlike past conflicts in which NFZ are attached, Russia has a strong and very complex army and is a nuclear power.
There are basic ones logistical hurdles, says Stoffer, who has served in the State Department for more than two decades.
- Not only will NATO have to decide which countries will be responsible for this, but the alliance will also have to set up a “very complex” defense system for monitoring and enforcement.
What the West says
- President Biden and the White House have repeatedly said that the United States will not send US troops to fight Russia in Ukraine, including to impose the NFZ.
- “This will essentially require the US military to shoot down Russian planes and provoke … a potential direct war with Russia – something we want to avoid,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Thursday.
- NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also ruled out the NFZ, saying the alliance “has no intention of moving to Ukraine either on the ground or in the airspace”. He stressed that NATO must ensure that “this does not get out of control”.
Where NFZ were used
- Libya: The UN Security Council has authorized a no-fly zone imposed by NATO over Libya in 2011 to “protect civilians at risk of attack”.
- Bosnia: NATO imposed a no-fly zone over Bosnia from April 1993 to December 1995.
- Iraq: The United States and coalition countries have imposed two no-fly zones in Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War.
- Yes, but: The US military and other countries imposing the NFZ were significantly better than those faced in these cases.
Bottom row
- Imposing a no-fly zone is “a premature idea right now,” Stoffer said.
- “We are not in a position where we want to engage in a conventional conflict with the Russians, because this could quickly escalate to a tactical nuclear level and a strategic nuclear level,” he added. “Then we are dealing with the end of history as we know it.”
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