In human history, nothing is eternal. Even those alliances between nations that seem eternal in the short span of our experience have an expiration date. Will America announce its withdrawal from NATO in a year? Now we have to face the problem.
In the latest polls, Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in a direct duel between the two. Within the Republican Party, the gap she leaves with her rivals (Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis) remains catastrophic, even a month before the start of the primaries. Anything can happen in the next eleven months, including at the judicial level, of course. But even those who continue to think a Trump repeat is unlikely are forced to view this as a hypothesis.
This is certainly what governments around the world are doing, each with an eye to the impact on their own country. A Trump re-election would be a “black swan” – a statistically very unlikely event that would have shocking consequences if it came true – but in this era, black swans are not rare animals, but have a habit of populating our world (since September 11, 2001 from Osama Bin Laden to October 7, 2023 of Hamas, about the financial crisis of 2008, Brexit and Trump 1 in 2016, the pandemic, Ukraine).