According to Randall Cerveny, WMO rapporteur on weather and climate extremes, the ruling will be based on an assessment of the phases when Freddy sank below 34 knots (nearly 63 km/h) before picking up speed. “The fundamental question will be whether we’re counting the time that Freddy hasn’t reached tropical storm stage,” explains the Arizona State University professor of geography, who in 2007 created the WMO records of extreme weather events The Record for the duration holds Typhoon John, which lasted 31 days in 1994. Freddy surpassed it, but it will be months before it is determined if a new record has actually been set.
Meteorology redefined
The WMO Extreme Weather Events Archive contains data on a variety of phenomena, including temperatures, wind speeds, and lightning. In the event of a possible record, Randall Cerveny gathers around 10 to 20 experts online to review the data. For Freddy, he notably called on scientists from the National Hurricane Center in the United States, experts in hurricane surveillance through satellite imagery and meteorologists specializing in the Indian Ocean, including Météo-France. “These scientists are the cream of the crop, and once they make a decision, I think everyone can accept it,” said Randall Cerveny.
AMOS GUMULIRA/AFP
“These conversations can be really amazing. In previous discussions, we rewrote some basic definitions of meteorology,” he said, citing the definition of lightning. Hurricanes get their energy from warm ocean water. Born in the southeast Indian Ocean, Freddy was named by the Australian Meteorological Service on February 6 and disbanded in mid-March. “What saved him and allowed him to survive so long was that he was constantly moving over warm water,” said Randall Cerveny.
The cyclone crossed the entire Indian Ocean from east to west, hitting Mauritius and Réunion on its long path to Madagascar and then Mozambique, causing heavy rains and flooding. It then looped to strike again in early March to hit those last two countries as well as Malawi, where it killed about 500 people. Once he has received all the raw data from the Indian Ocean weather stations, Randall Cerveny will write a report that will allow the panel of experts to start discussions.
JACK MCBRAMS/AFP
track changes
The current record holder, Typhoon John, was determined by aerial reconnaissance. “If you look at the data, you can see that it has fallen below tropical storm status,” said Randall Cerveny. “I’m in conversation with the people who made that decision and I’m trying to understand how they made it.” Freddy could also be fighting for other records as the cyclone has traveled more than 8,000 kilometers. According to Randall Cerveny, the most important reason for setting the records is “climate change”.