Will Sanctions Force Putin To Step Down In Ukraine? History Suggests That It Is Unlikely

Whether that will be enough to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukraine, or even weaken his power, is much less likely, according to sanctions experts.

“There is very little in the history of sanctions that show that they can force the target country to change its policy on something that is important to the country,” said Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “I see very little of Putin’s temperament that sanctions even in the postcode will be decisive.

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According to most analysts who study them, sanctions have mixed experience, often not causing a dramatic change in behavior, especially in authoritarian countries like Russia. Sanctions against Iran were one factor that analysts believed pushed him toward a 2015 deal on its nuclear program and recently brought its leaders back to the negotiating table, but they did not shift the government or halt what the U.S. sees as aggressive military behavior in the Middle East. U.S., U.N. sanctions and others have failed to force North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

U.S. and European sanctions against Libya since the early 1980s for its terrorism-sponsoring activities lasted about 20 years before Libya unveiled and revoked its weapons program, and Moammar Gaddafi remained in power for nearly another decade before being overthrown in a violent civil war. Iraqi Saddam Hussein resisted more than a decade of U.N. sanctions before being removed from the U.S. invasion, and Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic was stopped by military force after sanctions failed to deter his military aggression in the 1990s. The 1960s U.S. trade embargo against Cuba failed to lift that regime.

In some cases, the target regime has tightened its grip on power. Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro not only endured tough U.S. and European sanctions, but also sent his political allies into hiding or exile.

Iraqi Saddam Hussein endured more than a decade of UN sanctions before being removed from power.

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Moammar Gaddafi ruled Libya for 42 years before being overthrown in a bitter civil war.

Photograph: zohra bensemra/Reuters

When it comes to goals like regime change or reversal of military action against another country, sanctions only work about 5% of the time without threat or use of military force, says Robert Peip, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who reviewed decades of sanctions. after World War II.

Russian authorities have said sanctions will not force them to withdraw from the offensive in Ukraine. “They probably think that by imposing sanctions, they can force us to change our position. It is obvious here that this cannot be said,” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told reporters this week.

Despite all its limits, sanctions are still seen as better than doing nothing that would likely encourage more aggressive behavior by Russia and possibly other countries like China, many political scientists say. And the longer the Russian occupation of Ukraine lasts, the more sanctions increase Mr. Putin’s price.

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As fighting intensifies and casualties rise in Ukraine, the US and some allies have introduced broad and tough sanctions against Russia and provided arms and other supplies to the Ukrainian people. Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly isolated from the world community as the Russian people begin to experience some economic pain from the crisis. What is the situation in Ukraine? What could be Putin’s next steps? How effective have sanctions been and what are the prospects for the global economy?

“Sanctions will not work if you define success as a cessation of the siege of Kiev, but sanctions could affect Russia’s decision-making in the future… and influence China’s prospects for the cost of taking over Taiwan,” Mr Haas said.

While sanctions alone are unlikely to reverse the invasion of Ukraine, they could hamper Russia’s future ability to project power in the region, said Chris Miller, an assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. “Sanctions can be an effective tool in a game of exhaustion against an opponent,” he said.

In many ways, sanctions against Russia place the world in uncharted territory. The measures are likely to have the biggest impact on the global economy of all such moves since 1945, because Russia is a much larger economy than other recent targets such as Iran, with annual economic output roughly seven times that of Iran. Russia account for 10% of the world’s oil supply and, along with Ukraine, a quarter of global grain trade.

The stakes for sanctioning a nuclear power like Russia are also much higher and could trigger a dangerous escalation. Mr. Peip said there were few examples in history of sanctioning a great power like Russia.

Sanctions introduced against Russia have sharply limited the central bank’s ability to protect its local currency and prevent an inflationary spiral.

Photograph: Pavel Golovkin/Associated Press

Biden administration officials have called these moves the most consistent sanctions in history and believe they are different from past failed efforts. The U.S. and others have already imposed sanctions on Russian individuals and companies since russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and expanded those sanctions to include steps such as banning lending to Russian oil companies and banks after Russia invaded two separatist regions of Ukraine soon after.

But the current sanctions are much broader. Among other actions, sanctions prevent the Russian central bank from accessing most of its foreign exchange reserves stored abroad, sharply limiting the bank’s ability to protect its local currency and prevent an inflationary spiral. Western companies are also leaving en masse.

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ruble fell to its weakest against the US dollar. WSJ’s Dion Rabwin explains what drives the currency’s decline and what it could mean for Russians if it continues to sink. Photo: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg News

U.S. and European officials point to unprecedented unity and coordination between Western allies, noting that even a long-neutral Switzerland has joined them. They say collective action makes sanctions more powerful and provides less to Russian oligarchs, a key pillar in support of Mr. Putin to hide their money.

“This could cause rifts in Putin’s regime and potentially even threaten his presidency in the long run,” Teneo, a global risk consultancy, said this week. However, if the Russian government manages to channel growing anger against the economy against the West instead of Mr Putin, it added, sanctions could have the opposite effect.

A satellite image showing a long military convoy near Ivankov, Ukraine, this week.

Снимка: Maxar Technologies/REUTERS

U.S. officials said it would take time to assess the effect. “Let’s have a conversation in about a month to see if they work,” Mr. Biden told reporters late last week.

Sanctions are essentially the way modern democracies wage war by other means. After two world wars, sanctions have become a popular alternative to the use of force as a more humane way to try to change the behavior of some nations and deter others from such behavior.

The sanctions are one of the few options Mr. Biden has to deter Putin. The US president has said repeatedly that he will not send US troops to Ukraine and risk a military confrontation. While U.S. and European nations are now sending direct military aid to Ukraine, it may be too little, too late, said John Polga-Hechimovich, a professor of political science at the U.S. Naval Academy.

The most notable success was sanctions against South Africa, which helped the country end apartheid. But they often have less impact on autocratic regimes, which can pass on costs to the population and should not be responsible for doing so during elections.

“The kinds of sanctions that the U.S. imposed on Iran and now Russia will have limited impact on undemocratic countries,” said Bijan Hajepur, an Iranian economist and managing partner at Vienna-based consulting firm Eurasian Nexus Partners.

Despite tough sanctions against Iran, its economy has returned to sluggish growth. Tajrisch Bazaar in Tehran.

Снимка: abedin taherkenareh/Shutterstock

Western sanctions against Iran include its oil and energy sector (so far not included in the action against Russia), key industries, shipping, banking and exclusion from Swift, the international payments mechanism. Like Russia, sanctions have also prevented the central bank from accessing reserves abroad, leading to the sinking of the national currency by more than 80% from 2018, which has lowered living standards.

However, the Iranian economy did not collapse. It has returned to sluggish growth, driven mainly by a boost in local production. Companies have given up products that rely on imports and foreign technologies. The sanctions also led Iran to trade less with Europe and more with China. Chinese purchases of Iranian oil have recently reached record levels.

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Russia depends a little less on energy than Iran. And it will still sell oil and gas to Europe and beyond, despite the departure of many Western oil companies due to the reluctance of refineries to take Russian oil.

Sanctions can also have unintended consequences, such as the rapprochement between China and Russia. Three years after U.S. sanctions, Venezuela’s regime has moved closer to American adversaries like Russia.

In both Iran and Venezuela, elites close to power, including Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Venezuela’s military, have taken advantage of sanctions by taking advantage of illegal smuggling operations to circumvent trade restrictions, foreign diplomats and U.S. officials say. The sanctions have also made the military and other elites subject to sanctions feel threatened and more determined to retain power, U.S. and European diplomats say.

Ian Talley contributed to this article.

Write to David Luhnow on [email protected], Andrew Restucha on [email protected] and Sune Engel Rasmussen on [email protected]