British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that Ukraine can defeat Vladimir Putin’s forces, but what are the likelihood and form of a victory for Kiev forces over Russia?
Johnson told the BBC on Friday that “in a way, Putin has already failed or lost,” adding: “I think Ukraine can certainly win.”
Russia continues to bomb cities like Mariupol and Chernihiv, but Putin appears to have scaled back his ambitions in Ukraine from conquering Kiev to fighting for control of the east. On Friday, Moscow said the “military special operation” would now focus on the “main goal, the liberation of Donbass,” according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday called for negotiations with Moscow to end the war, saying his “heroic forces have dealt mighty blows to the enemy.”
In the face of Russia’s stalled invasion, losses in troops and equipment, and strong resistance from Ukraine, Newsweek asked six experts if they think Kyiv could ultimately win.
Clifford Brown, Professor of Political Science, Union College, New York
“If victory means Russia is pushed back from Kyiv and Kharkiv, I think the chances are good.
“If it means Ukraine holding the land bridge from Russia to Crimea, as that is Putin’s minimum goal and he will fight very hard to achieve it […] there the battle hangs in the balance.
“Ukraine could still hold this corridor, but this would mean a very serious collapse of the Russian position, which has not happened yet. Certainly possible, but the odds are no better than even here. [That] success would, in my view, mean a victory for Ukraine.
“If winning means recapturing Donbass and Crimea, both of which would lead to escalation, probably weapons of mass destruction, in my opinion [weapons of mass destruction]and are currently out of the question.”
Katie Laatikainen, Professor of Political Science, Adelphi University, New York
“The scattered reports of Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian positions are also a sign that Ukraine will hold its ground as long as material flows. But it seems unlikely that Ukraine could ‘win’.
“Here is the experience of Finland in the Winter and Continuation War [during WW2] with the Soviet Union is instructive. Finland also faced a superior Soviet military and held its ground for several years after Stalin miscalculated the cost of subduing Finland.
“The Finns also achieved some amazing reversals of Soviet advances. Like today’s Ukraine, the Finnish military was supported by all of society, which mobilized to resist the Soviets. In the end, the Soviet Union ‘won’ the war and annexed Karelia. .and established a military base after the war until 1956.
“But Finland retained its sovereignty with limited political independence, rather than being accepted into the Warsaw Pact.
“Finland avoided the far worse fate of the Eastern European countries – which is something of a ‘victory’ – but winning Finnish sovereignty came at a very high cost. ‘”
Matt Qvortrup, Professor of Political Science, Coventry University, UK
“Ukraine is unlikely to prevail in the traditional military sense of the word, which means winning outright – but neither will Russia.
“I think the more likely scenario is similar to Finland in 1941 or Georgia in 2008. Or, to take another example, Serbia didn’t lose the war in Bosnia, nor did they lose outright in Kosovo. But they have been weakened.”
Lt. Col. William Astore, former professor of history at the US Air Force Academy (USAF)
“Ukraine is unlikely to prevail. The longer the war goes on, the more likely it is that Ukraine will be catastrophically damaged.”
Andrew Latham, Professor of International Relations, Macalester College, Saint Paul, Minnesota
“Russia will probably emerge victorious enough, although not as victorious as they originally hoped.
“A similarly intriguing question is, will Zelenskyy survive his impending defeat? I think if he’s forced to concede neutrality, as well as the loss of Crimea and Donbass, even his recent popularity won’t be enough to stop the nationalist tiger he’s ridden devouring him.
“More prosaically, I imagine he will suffer the same fate as [ousted ex-President Viktor] Yanukovych in 2014.”
Michal Baranowski, head of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund
“It will be a while before we can see what a victory for Ukraine would mean in the end. It is certainly very likely that Russia will not achieve its goal of total domination of Ukraine, but I fear it is too early to say that the war will end with Ukraine’s victory.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry for comment.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gestures as he speaks during a news conference in Kyiv March 3, 2022. Zelenskyy has expressed hope that negotiations with Moscow can end the war in which its armed forces are resisting Russian aggression. SERGEI SUPINSKY/Getty Images