Ukraine may win its war against Russia this year but may not because Western military support is “too little and too late,” a military expert said today.
JUSTIN BRONK, Research Associate at London’s Royal United Services Institute, analyzed the current situation in an article for Web today as Ukraine prepares for a crucial spring and summer offensive.
It comes as Germany finally agreed to supply Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks after months of delaying the decision. An announcement from the US is expected later today.
Mr Bronk said the possibility of deploying new armored vehicles by spring could allow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s forces to make “decisive breakthroughs” against Russia without suffering “crippling infantry losses”.
The expert said Ukraine has a chance to win the war in 2023, but “if it can’t take it because Western support is too little and too late,” then “the chance may not come again.”
JUSTIN BRONK, Research Associate at London’s Royal United Services Institute, analyzed the current situation in an article for Web today as Ukraine prepares for a crucial spring and summer offensive
After nearly two months of brutal but geographically limited fighting in Ukraine, both sides seem to be gathering strength for new offensives.
Russian forces have lost many thousands killed and wounded in repeated attacks on the towns of Soledar and Bakhmut.
They have used heavy artillery and infantry attacks to force slow, extremely costly advances across shell-strewn, muddy trench lines that resemble in many ways World War I.
Ukraine, too, has suffered heavy casualties defending these areas of Donbass, but nonetheless one of the key elements of both sides’ strategies has been an attempt to limit the deployment of their armed forces.
Ukraine ended 2022 with two resoundingly successful counter-offensives in the north and south. In the north, Kharkiv Oblast was liberated along with the cities of Kupiansk, Izyum and Lyman.
Meanwhile, to the south, most of the Kherson region, including its capital, was liberated as the Russian army was crushed and eventually forced to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River.
But the effort cost heavy casualties, particularly in Ukraine’s elite brigades, capable of large-scale mobile offensive operations.
Likewise, Russian casualties were extremely heavy, with recent estimates by Norwegian intelligence suggesting that around 180,000 Russian soldiers were killed, seriously wounded or captured since the invasion began.
Mr Bronk believes Ukraine could defeat Russia this year, but Western support would be vital. Pictured: A Ukrainian artillery crew shelled Russian positions near the town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region yesterday
Smoke billows from shelling in the town of Soledar, the scene of fierce fighting with Russian forces in Donetsk region, Ukraine
So both sides have sought to disrupt each other’s attempts to rebuild their forces this winter with fresh recruits and equipment, only to regain the initiative in the spring.
From the end of September, Russia mobilized around 300,000 new recruits, about half of whom were immediately deployed to Ukraine to stabilize the front lines that had been pushed back so successfully.
These troops, sent quickly, had very little opportunity for training and often very poor equipment, so they have suffered appalling casualties in winter battles and have low morale.
However, the other 150,000 or so have been trained since September and given tanks, artillery and armored vehicles to form new units.
These will likely be used to launch a new Russian offensive push in February, with a more ambitious aim than the bitter fighting around Bakhmut and Soledar in recent months.
They will not have had time to become good soldiers or professional units, but will be far more capable than the fresh draftees thrown into the lines before Christmas.
In addition, Russia is preparing to launch another wave of mobilizations, reportedly aimed at recruiting up to 500,000 additional recruits to deploy more units.
Russia’s defense industry is also being belatedly put on hold in response to a serious current shortage of ammunition of all kinds at the front lines.
With Russian President Vladimir Putin not planning a long war, his country’s industry was not mobilized to meet the sudden demand until it was clear that things had gone very wrong in Ukraine.
A woman walks in front of a damaged house in Bakhmut – a town that has been the focus of savage fighting
Justin Bronk said that being able to have his new armored vehicles operational by spring could allow President Zelensky’s (right-wing) forces to “make decisive breakthroughs”. Putin is pictured at left
The consequence is an increasing shortage of modern equipment and even artillery ammunition for Russian frontline units and those being trained to form new units.
Now factories are focused on building large quantities of fewer types of ammunition, vehicles and weapons, which over time will likely result in significantly improved quantities reaching Russian troops.
Ukraine mobilized some 700,000 people when it invaded in February last year and spent the winter training and equipping as many as possible to reinforce depleted units and create new ones.
Equipment is a major bottleneck, however, as much of Ukraine’s defense industry and economy has been severely damaged by Russian missile attacks.
Western partners have provided vital assistance on a large scale to fuel Ukraine’s heroic defensive struggle, with anti-tank missiles, air defense systems, artillery ammunition and the HIMARS rocket artillery system being among the most important deliveries to date.
But what they need now is heavy equipment to retake as much of their stolen territory as possible while Russia is in a weak position.
The expected Kremlin offensive in February will not defeat Ukraine and is likely to suffer further terrible casualties as relatively poorly trained units try to storm Ukrainian lines that have been fortified over the winter.
A German Leopard 2 tank at a Bundeswehr demonstration event. A total of 14 are now being sent to Ukraine
America is expected to supply M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Mr Bronk says owning modern tanks will be crucial for Ukraine
The crucial question is how successful the Ukrainian counter-offensive will be in the spring and summer.
What Ukrainian troops need are hundreds of armored vehicles — with firepower that can shield them from artillery as they cross muddy battlefields to attack Russian positions — and main battle tanks and mobile artillery systems to provide the fire support and anti-tank burst.
If enough units can be trained, supplied, and supported by spring to pilot vehicles like the American M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle and the German Leopard 2 main battle tank, they may be able to make decisive breakthroughs without suffering crippling infantry losses.
That should be the West’s goal — to help Ukraine’s armed forces retake as much of its territory as possible before Russia’s next wave of conscripts and renewed military-industrial production begin to shift the balance of power in the fall.
Unless Ukraine is supplied with heavy equipment and supportive fuel, maintenance, bridging and engineering vehicles to deploy effectively on a large scale by spring, Russia may yet be able to force a grueling standoff that will last well into 2024 .
Ukraine has a chance to win the war in 2023, but if it fails to seize it because Western support arrives too little or too late, the chance may not come again.
For the West, too, a stalemate stretching into next year and possibly beyond will be far more expensive and destabilizing in the long run than providing Ukraine with what it needs to win now.
Ukrainian troops made their way to the front yesterday. Mr. Zelensky has repeatedly asked about modern main battle tanks