Bill ConnellyESPN Staff Writer8. Jul 2023 09:27 ET5 minutes read
Every tournament has favourites. Rarely at a tennis tournament is there someone considered a favorite over the rest of the field. On the other hand, rarely is a player as dominant as Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon.
Djokovic has won 31 straight Wimbledon games and 43 of his last 45 on grass. Neither of the two players who defeated him – the retired Tomas Berdych or the injured Marin Cilic – stepped onto the Wimbledon field this year. Djokovic began his quest for his eighth Wimbledon title at -175 betting odds, according to Caesars. That’s implied title odds of 64% for him and 36% for the other 127 players in the field. After three rounds of the tournament, his odds are as high as -200 (equivalent to 67%). And good luck finding someone who is confidently willing to bet against him.
Still, there are four rounds to go, and well, this is a tennis tournament. Strange things are happening! Djokovic lost to Sam Querrey at Wimbledon in 2016 and to Berdych in 2010 and 2017. He may be the safest choice in the sport, but there’s no such thing as a 100 percent guarantee.
With that in mind, let’s talk about the obstacles he will still face in the coming rounds. First, after his straight-set win over Stan Wawrinka on Friday, here’s Djokovic’s likely remaining path at Wimbledon:
Fourth round: No. 17 Hubert Hurkacz
quarter finals: No. 7 Andrey Rublev (64% chance of making the round, according to Tennis Abstract) or No. 23 Alexander Bublik (36%)
Semifinals: #8 Jannik Sinner (73%), #26 Denis Shapovalov (15%), Roman Safiullin (10%), Daniel Elahi Galan (3%)
Final: #1 Carlos Alcaraz (37%), #3 Daniil Medvedev (23%), #5 Stefanos Tsitsipas (11%), Matteo Berrettini (6%), #10 Frances Tiafoe (6%), #6 Holger Rune (5%), No. 16 Tommy Paul (3%), nine others under 3%
Who are the five players with the best chances of causing a big upset and giving Djokovic his first Wimbledon defeat since 2018?
1.Carlos Alcaraz
When he would play against Djokovic: final
Of course we start with Alcaraz. He is the highest ranked player in the world and has won one of their two direct games. He’s still learning how to play on grass — his second-round win over Alexandre Muller was only his 13th senior game on the surface — but he’s won 10 of his last 11 grass games and all seven in 2023. He’s a fast learner .
20-year-old Alcaraz still has many hurdles to overcome to reach our first Djokovic-Alcaraz final. In the fourth round, either Alexander Zverev or 2021 finalist Berrettini would be waiting, followed by maybe either Rune or Tiafoe in the quarters and either Medvedev or Tsitsipas in the semis. That is a lot. But if he improves his form enough to survive those challenges, and if he can relax better ahead of the clash with Djokovic (he suffered from stress-related cramps in the French Open semi-final match), he could be poised to win the best, what ever was in a best-of-five.
2. Jannik Sinner
When he would play against Djokovic: Semifinals
Sinner clicked at Wimbledon last year. He went only 2-6 overall at the 2022 championships on grass but defeated Wawrinka, John Isner and Alcaraz en route to the quarterfinals, where he also won the first two sets against Djokovic. However, as is customary, it only went one way from there: 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 for Djokovic.
Sinner looked outstanding for most of the first week, losing a set to Quentin Halys but winning six more, 6-2 or worse. Still only 20, he’s a brilliant ball striker, his movements are good and if Alcaraz hadn’t risen incredibly in the last two years we would be talking a lot more about Sinner’s enormous potential. It’s also by far the friendliest neighborhood. His chances of reaching the semifinals are high (73% according to Tennis Abstract) and he knows he can compete on this surface. But there’s confidence, and there’s confidence to ‘win three sets against Novak Djokovic’. All we know is that Sinner has the former.
3. Hubert Hurkacz
If he plays against Djokovic: fourth round
The year 2023 was a year full of ups and downs for Hurkacz. The 26-year-old reached one final and three semi-finals (including one on grass in Stuttgart) but also lost six out of seven to top-20 opponents. However, his only victory came on Friday at Wimbledon when he defeated Lorenzo Musetti 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 and advanced to the fourth round.
The hard-hitting 1.9m tall Hurkacz appears to be the prototype of a turf star and his track record certainly backs that up. He took a set from Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2019, beat Roger Federer en route to the semifinals in 2021 and has won 16 of his last 20 on grass. While nobody can serve enough and volley enough these days, he’s more capable than most of employing that old-fashioned strategy – something that gave Djokovic moments of unease in the second round against Jordan Thompson. And given the way Djokovic tends to play his way into tournaments and improve with every round, playing him in round four might be better than playing him late in week two.
4. Daniil Medvedev
When he would play against Djokovic: final
In the Slams, Djokovic is 29-1 overall against the 23 other men still in the Wimbledon field. He’s lost sets against a few of them, but only one has clinched three sets against him in the same game: Medvedev, in the US Open 2021 final. So he definitely needs to be on this list, even if grass isn’t his best surface.
He is making progress on grass though. He has won 19 of his last 25 on the surface and just avenged one of his most recent losses with a straight-set win over turf specialist Adrian Mannarino. He prefers life well above the baseline, and his long, circling punches can make quick adjustments to funky, hard jumps. But he finds out and has performed well in his first two games. And if he makes it to the final against Djokovic, he will bring with him a realization that no one else in this field has: the fact that he can actually beat the opponent that faces him.
5.Frances Tiafoe
When he would play against Djokovic: final
The chances of Big Foe reaching the final and getting a shot at Djokovic are not great. In consecutive rounds he may need to beat Grigor Dimitrov (2014 semi-finalist), sixth-seeded Rune, Alcaraz and either Medvedev or Tsitsipas. You could make strong arguments for Rublev (Djokovic’s likely quarter-final opponent), Rune, Tsitsipas, Zverev or even an in-form Berrettini at this point instead of Tiafoe.
So why choose the Maryland native? Because confidence is not an issue for a man who beat Rafael Nadal at the US Open last year (and put Alcaraz in five long sets two rounds later) and has won 11 of his last 13 games on grass. Unless you have a mighty serve, winning on grass requires a great deal of brawling and improvisation. He has those skills in abundance and seems to get more comfortable on the surface with every game he plays. He also took a set from Djokovic at the Australian Open 2021. Nobody on this list has a great chance of beating Djokovic, but I would give Tiafoe a better chance than most.