CNN –
Ukraine is about to enter its second winter of war, and the bold campaigns of a year ago that resulted in significant gains in Kharkiv and Kherson appear to be a distant memory.
The Ukrainian military is now waging a bitter war of attrition against stubborn and larger Russian forces along a nearly 1,000-kilometer front. There is still a lack of air power and offensive operations are interrupted by worsening weather.
The Russians are likely to launch another campaign to cripple Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and plunge its population into a dark winter. On the battlefield, the Russians have adapted. Next year’s defense budget will be 70% higher than this year’s. You’re in it for the long haul.
But the Ukrainians are also adapting after the counteroffensive got off to a halting start.
As Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman argued in The Economist, “Ukrainian soldiers’ ability to master Western technology quickly led to misguided optimism that the time needed to develop cohesive combat units could be shortened.”
Now they have returned to a style of warfare they know best, using small groups of mobile infantry to test entrenched Russian defenses. This is also appropriate to the current circumstances, as numerous Russian drones detected any concentration of forces and directed massive artillery fire against them.
Small and nimble is the answer.
In a wide-ranging interview with CNN last week, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky said: “Neither the enemy nor we deploy primarily companies, battalions or brigades, but assault squads of 10-15 men.”
Ukraine is unwilling to risk the losses that an ambitious mechanized offensive would entail.
“The primary competency of any commander at any level is sustaining personnel,” Tarnavsky told CNN senior international correspondent Fred Pleitgen.
This type of warfare is less affected by the mud and fog of the winter months. “Weather can be a serious obstacle to an advance. But considering how we are progressing and progressing largely without the use of vehicles, I don’t think this will have much impact on the counteroffensive phase,” Tarnavsky added.
This type of warfare is at one end of the spectrum. But the Ukrainians also use Western supplies of longer-range artillery, both in the south and in the east. And Kiev has dramatically increased attacks with long-range missiles and drones on Russian military centers: command centers, fuel and ammunition supply centers, transport hubs.
Starve, stretch and strike
The UK’s chief of defense staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, has described this strategy as “starve, stretch and strike” – although much of the attack currently comes from long range.
Crimea has become a constant target – with the aim of cutting off Russian supply lines and weakening the Black Sea Fleet.
Such attacks are likely to continue and escalate as winter weather makes progress on the ground even more difficult. High-profile operations like this month against the Sevastopol shipyard and Black Sea Fleet headquarters boost morale and remind Ukraine’s allies that it is still at the forefront.
Planet Labs PBC/Handout/Portal
A satellite image shows smoke rising from a Russian Black Sea Navy headquarters in the Crimean city of Sevastopol on September 22.
The expected introduction of German Taurus long-range missiles and US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs) will increase Ukraine’s focus on destroying Russian infrastructure (though not beyond Ukrainian territory).
As the online military publication WarZone notes: “The ability to deliver a 500-pound warhead with incredible power over long distances would pose major problems for critical Russian logistics nodes and associated infrastructure such as bridges and fortified command and control centers around the world .” behind the front.”
In recent months, Ukrainian forces have focused on weakening Russian air defenses and forcing the enemy to make painful decisions about what to defend, especially as the Moscow region faces persistent and irritating (if not) increasing defenses were deployed (very destructive) drone campaign.
If Ukraine receives multi-warhead ATACMs as expected, it will be able to inflict far greater damage on remote Russian targets such as air bases. The head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, told War Zone: “Fighting Russian aviation with air defense systems is very costly and ineffective. Aviation should be eliminated at air bases.”
Removing them will be a gigantic task. The Russian military has learned from its mistakes.
“The Russians are seen as the ones who quickly learn our tactics – their actions on the battlefield prove this,” Tarnovsky told CNN.
Oleksandr Ratushniak/Portal
A Ukrainian soldier loads unguided rockets into the launch vehicle of a Mi-8 military helicopter in eastern Ukraine on Friday.
Still, some of Russia’s best units have suffered from the growing pipeline of Western weapons entering Ukraine, particularly long-range artillery and cluster munitions from the United States.
According to the British Ministry of Defense, parts of Russia’s newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army (CAA) have been deployed to reinforce units in the north, essentially plugging holes in an area where neither side is making progress.
“With 25 CAA apparently being deployed gradually to reinforce the stretched line, a concerted new Russian offensive is less likely in the coming weeks,” the ministry said last week.
“The extent to which Ukraine can inflict disproportionate casualties and destruction on the Russians in the coming offensives will be an important measure of success,” says Mick Ryan, a former Australian general and author of Futura Doctrina, who recently visited Ukraine was.
Russian morale is difficult to assess. Ukrainian officials say many Russian prisoners of war have little idea why they were fighting and that discipline is often inadequate. There is anecdotal evidence of this from other sources, although not to the extent that the Russian military machine would be damaged.
However, it is often (and incorrectly) claimed that the Russians are running out of missiles and other ammunition. Ukrainian officers have reported a sharp decrease in artillery fire in some places. But next winter will likely see renewed missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as the “heating season” begins.
“They are stockpiling missiles for this,” Maksym Timchenko, CEO of Ukrainian utility DTEK, told CNN this month.
Last year, Russian missile attacks damaged or destroyed about two-thirds of Ukraine’s energy facilities – but failed to break civilian resolve. A series of strikes this month suggests another campaign is imminent.
Alexander Ermochenko/Portal
An 85-year-old resident stands in her destroyed home in the Russian-controlled Ukrainian city of Mariupol on Tuesday.
But just as they seek to weaken Russia’s air defenses, the Ukrainians have made progress in improving their own.
“Last year there was no Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, SAMP-T or many other systems,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last week. “Our air defense system has become even more comprehensive and experienced… It will become even stronger by winter.”
Energy production has also increased. Seven nuclear reactors are now in operation and two more are scheduled to go online. More electricity can be imported from the EU than before. Domestic natural gas production has increased.
Distribution remains a problem. Autotransformers are in short supply and power outages are expected to continue this winter. But the Ukrainian network is more resilient than it was a year ago.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others have spoken of Ukraine’s “steady progress” on the battlefield, but many Western analysts and officials feel a stalemate is looming.
There is increasing talk that the conflict will drag on until 2025. History shows that wars tend to ossify beyond their initial stages. This happened after the outbreak of the so-called separatist conflict in Donbass in 2014.
Ryan, the former Australian general, says Ukraine’s Western partners need to recognize this and plan accordingly.
“By pledging to support Ukraine for the duration of the conflict, the West can undermine Putin’s efforts to outlive Ukraine’s patrons,” he said.
U.S. Army Major Robert Rose agrees, writing in “War on the Rocks.” “Ukraine does not have the luxury of conducting maneuvers (quick offensive actions). It must engage in inglorious attrition, and we must be prepared to support it until the Russian invaders are exhausted.”
Europe and the United States remain committed to supporting Ukraine on the battlefield and with financial support. But there are signs of fatigue. Doubts and arguments spread.
Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images
Firefighters are seen after a massive overnight rocket attack on Ukraine September 21.
The recent dispute between Ukraine and the Polish government over grain exports has shown it to be vulnerable to changing political sentiments among allied countries. The US election campaign is underway among rival Republicans, and the level of support for Ukraine is controversial
Spring 2024 is emerging as a potentially important phase in the conflict. Both sides will use the winter to retool. Then the first Ukrainian F-16s will be deployed, along with perhaps more ATACMs and other long-range missiles (in addition to the growing domestic production lines in Ukraine).
That’s why the delivery of Western weapons must be accelerated, says Max Boot from the Council for Foreign Relations.
“Failure to send enough weapons to Ukraine will only increase the likelihood that the conflict will drag on indefinitely,” Boot said.
Ukrainians will also read the political tea leaves in the US and what they see as less enthusiastic European allies and assess the state of the “coalition of the willing.”
In Russia, the war could have greater economic consequences next year.
The Kremlin has pushed the narrative that defending the motherland is an existential struggle; There is no public dissent. The sanctions have hurt, but are not yet crippling; The price of oil helps limit the damage to the state budget.
But as the economy becomes increasingly focused on maintaining the war machine (at least 6% of GDP will be spent on the military next year), there are increasing strains: labor shortages and inflation, as well as a persistently weak ruble. Vladimir Putin will not want to cut social spending before elections next spring, when most analysts expect oil and gas prices to weaken.
Many variables will shape the future of this conflict over the next year. First, both sides must endure the mud, frost and fog of the winter months